Gale Warning 165, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
159 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow continues today, with another shot of snow for the
E Interior, mainly north of the Tanana Valley and across the
Alaska Range. Mixed rain and snow showers out west turn to all
snow as a cold front plows inland across the YK Delta tonight and
Monday, bringing strong southwest winds and elevated surf to the
Delta and Norton Sound, and eventually up to the Chukchi Sea. The
front shifts east on Monday and snow will move across the
Interior, albeit rather light in most locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
The remnants of the closed low which had been stalled out over the
E Aleutians is now finally kicking out to the northeast, with the
trough shifting across the Mainland this morning. At the base of
the trough is a low forming over the Gulf Coast and moving toward
Southcentral, with the MSLP around 999 mb. Over the W Bering Sea,
a strong negative tilt upper trough with a vigorous front is
rapidly moving east. That surface center is more like a trough
axis, with a MSLP around 975 mb. Partial clearing over parts of
the Mainland have allowed for locally dense fog.

Model Discussion...
Models are in better agreement with a deep low moving into the YK
Delta and Norton Sound tonight and Monday, but differences still
remain. The GFS is still much stronger and slower with storm force
winds pushing over parts of the YK Delta and the Bering Strait
while the ECMWF is the weakest and fastest. However, they have at
least settled on gales as well as general timing of the winds, so
we will favor a 06Z NAM blend which is a good middle ground on
everything. After that, a blend of models is preferred for precip
and snowfall chances, which we will increase through the period as
there are several chances of snow across the Mainland.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Chances for snow increase today mainly across the south facing
slopes of the AK Range and then in the Interior, north of the
Tanana Valley. There is still a chance for a quick shot of light
snow over the Tanana Valley, but as usual, it is slim given the
south glow trajectory which tends to downslope off the AK Range.
1-2 inches of snow is possible from the White Mtns northward by
the time snow exits to the Brooks Range midday Monday. Expect
advisory level winds (50-60 mph) in the AK Range from the south,
as well, beginning this afternoon through tonight. A strong cold
front will shift east and bring more snow Monday and Monday night
as the front quickly moves east, with 1-2 inches possible. Over
the AK Range, expect up to 4 inches with the front over S facing
slopes. The front exits Monday night and early Tuesday and a
strong low shifting over the West Coast will bring yet another
round of strong winds to the AK Range, this time possibly 60+ mph
or higher, beginning sometime Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain/snow showers will generally come to an end over the West
Coast today with increasing southeasterly-easterly offshore winds
ahead of a strong Bering Sea front. Gale force winds will move
across the YK Delta to Saint Lawrence Island and then the low will
shift north, bringing gale force southwest winds tonight and
Monday. The low shifts north of the Bering Strait Monday night and
will bring elevated surf through the Bering Strait. There is no
change to forecast water levels of 2 to 4 feet, favoring Norton
Sound. Snow along the front will be brief with 1 to 2 inches
possible, with widespread snow showers behind this front through
Tuesday. Yet another low is expected to track from Bristol Bay to
the NW Arctic late Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more snow
chances and some blustery winds as it tracks through.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Patchy fog and low stratus are occurring over the Arctic coast in
conjunction with light easterly onshore winds from Prudhoe Bay
east. A front shifts over the Brooks Range bringing light snow to
the Range and then the Arctic Coast tonight and Monday along with
increasing south winds through Brooks Range gaps 15 to 30 mph.
This overall pattern will continue into Wednesday with far too
many weakening fronts to try and count crossing over the Brooks
Range, each bringing a quick shot of light snow chances.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A low is exiting north across the Chukchi Sea sometime on
Wednesday evening, with a deep low in the Gulf of AK. This should
incite drying and gradual cooling by late week as an arctic high
finally redevelops. It looks pretty dry for most of the Interior
and N Slope with only low chances for precip over the West Coast
as the Pacific jet pattern takes over.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
Elevated water levels of 3 to 4 feet are likely Monday and
Tuesday from the Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait. Water levels
will not be as high, around 2 to 3 feet, closer to Point Hope
north of the Bering Straight. Large breaking waves on beaches are
still possible and may create High Surf conditions in this time
period. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for these
conditions. Coverage of sea ice also creates uncertainty for the
eastern half of Norton and Kotzebue Sounds if any large waves will
be able to make it onshore.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory AKZ849.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-806-816-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

Ahsenmacher