Gale Warning 131, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1203 AM AKDT Thu Nov 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic front over the Arctic Coast will sag south and bring
snow chances to the Interior today through Saturday, with
accumulating snowfall expected, although accumulations will be
light over most of the E Interior, with the better accumulations
over the Yukon Valley by Saturday. Strong and cooler northeast winds
will blow through from this afternoon through Sunday over most of
the Interior, reaching gale force gusts over many Interior higher
elevation locations, with gales over the Arctic Coast by Saturday.
Minor blowing snow and showers will continue over the Arctic Coast
for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There are a pair of upper lows over the NPAC with heights around
523 and 532 dam, respectively. There is a narrow ridge over the S
Mainland with heights around 546 dam, with a closed high over the
N British Columbia region, with heights around 552 dam. This is
the remnant of the once powerful and anomalous high which was
over Alaska the last several days. There is a phasing arctic low
aloft across the N Slope, Brooks Range, and Beaufort Sea with
heights around 524 dam. There is a weak closed high over Wrangel
Island with heights around 546 dam. An arctic front has moved
onshore across the North Slope and is moving south.

Model Discussion...
Models are now in very good agreement after not being in good
agreement with the track of a migratory upper low from Siberia
into Alaska. The ECMWF was the significant outlier and completely
flipped to what the GFS/NAM were already showing which was a more
phased and slower upper low solution for the next three days
across Alaska as the arctic trough to the north phases with the
Siberia low. NAM hi-res was favored for winds and the EC/GFS/NBM
for precip and snow.

Central and Eastern Interior...
An arctic front will drop south today and tomorrow and merge with
a weak low over the N Gulf Coast Thu night and Friday, bringing
light snow to the E Interior and E Alaska Range. Snow flurries or
light snow showers will move across the Tanana Valley and White
Mtns as well, but it looks very light. A better chance for very
light accumulations for the Tanana Valley occur Fri night and Sat
as a warm front shifts north before drying occurs and a stout
Tanana Valley Jet forms Sat and Sun. Northeast winds will be rather
strong over Interior higher elevations with gusts to 35 to 50 mph
and gusts to near 30 mph over the lower elevations Friday into
Sunday. It'll be rather blustery everywhere, and will feel a bit
chillier than it has been recently. We issued wind advisories for
the long duration northeast winds with this forecast package.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Northeast winds will continue to increase through this week and
will last through the weekend, with general 15 to 25 mph winds and
gusts to gale force over the coastal areas, strongest near the
Chukchi coast. This is an arctic front bringing in cooler air so
temps will cool. Snow chances increase for the W Interior Sat and
Sun with snow shower chances increasing over the West Coast.
Expect possible 2 to 4 inches of snow for parts of the Yukon
Valley and Upper Noatak Valley Sat and Sun.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The arctic front has moved in with onshore flow bringing
accumulating light snow and some areas of fog with blowing snow.
This continues the next several days as onshore increases this
weekend, with gale force winds developing by later Saturday.
Accumulations will be light, but will be continuous on/off. Temps
trend down but not a lot as the flow will be off the still open
waters of the Beaufort Sea.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended forecast starts off with an arctic low over the
western half of the state and a very strong ~1038 mb surface high
over the Arctic Ocean. The arctic trough out west will eventually
shift energetic waves aloft to the east and keep the region under
the influence of more typical seasonal temps with chances for
snow. There is a decent shot for accumulating snowfall across
most of the Mainland Sun and Mon as the arctic trough aloft shifts
east.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ832-833-834-842-846.

PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-810-812-816-850>852-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-855.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ809.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810-811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-814-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-859-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813-858>860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-815-853-860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
&&

Ahsenmacher