Brisk Wind Advisory 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1232 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern persists with snow over the Western
Interior and more snow expected today and tomorrow for the
Eastern/Central Interior. Snow exits from the Interior tomorrow
afternoon with a front moving into the West Coast Thursday and
Friday, bringing much warmer air and snow to that region, then
mixing with rain by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 502 dam arctic low centered over Saint Lawrence Island
with a shortwave ridge over the Eastern Interior. A weak
disturbance is centered over Bristol Bay and is moving northeast.
A remnant low over the Gulf of Alaska is weakening along the
coast with the shortwave trough moving into the Yukon. A sharp
arctic front persists over the West Coast with a long band of snow
stretching from Bristol Bay to the Western Brooks Range.

Model Discussion...
The models are in much better overall agreement today than the
last several days. The overall forecast complication is less, and
observations fit much better to current model analysis. There is
high certainty that snow out west will shift east along an arctic
front into the Central and Eastern Interior this afternoon/evening
and through early Thursday. There is also high certainty of a
fast moving front moving north along the West Coast Thursday and
Friday, bringing snow and blowing snow. The favored models were
high res models to better capture gap winds and precipitation.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A band of snow will move into the Tanana Valley and shift north
late this afternoon and evening. This snow will shift north into
the Yukon Flats and merge with an arctic front shifting east
tonight. More snow showers are expected tomorrow morning as the
front moves through. Generally expecting widespread 1 to 3 inches
of snowfall, locally higher over the Alaska Range passes. South
winds gusting to 45 mph will also blow through the passes which
will support some localized lowing and drifting snowfall.
Thereafter, the front quickly exits tomorrow afternoon leaving dry
conditions through Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Snow continues over the Interior along the front, and this will
shift further north to the Arctic coast by tonight. The low will
move offshore of Kotzebue Sound which should pull some east winds
through the Noatak Valley with gusts into the 45 mph range.
Additional snow accumulations will generally by 2 to 4 inches with
4 to 6 in the Brooks Range. This arctic front exits Thursday
midday with a strong front moving into the YK Delta right on its
heels Thursday afternoon into Friday. This front will bring snow
and a 6 to 9 hour period of strong easterly winds to most of the
coast as it quickly shifts northward. Expecting blizzard
conditions along the Bering Coast of the Yukon Delta and into
Saint Lawrence Island Thursday afternoon and evening. The front
quickly weakens but waves of moisture shift north along with
warming temps Friday and Saturday, with periods of snow possible
mixed rain over most of the West Coast by Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cold arctic air continues to sit over the region with strong
north winds in the Brooks Range. Snow will move across the West
Brooks Range/Arctic and then shift east through Thursday evening.
East winds 25 to 40 mph will blow over the West Arctic and support
blowing and drifting snow as well as wind chills to -55 F. East
winds increase over Prudhoe Bay as well on Thursday with some
areas of blowing and drifting snowfall. More accumulating snow
moves in Saturday as a front shifts into the area from the south.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A very powerful and anomalous upper ridge will be in place for the
weekend stretching from the NE Pacific into the Mainland. A series
of "ridge rider" storms will be moving across the West Coast and
Western Interior, bringing warming temps and chances for snow,
possibly mixed rain over the Yukon Delta. While warming aloft for
the Interior, it will be colder with strong inversions. Snow
chances move inland as the ridge weakens Saturday and Sunday and
may persist into the early part of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ213-214.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ215-216.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ217.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ208-218-219.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ226.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.
     Gale Warning for PKZ220.
     Gale Warning for PKZ225.
     Gale Warning for PKZ230.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-245.

&&

Ahsenmacher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
841 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

AKZ222-223-260400-
Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha, Delta Junction,
Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake,
and Healy Lake
841 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

...Snow for the Wednesday Evening and Thursday Morning Commute...

Snow will develop this afternoon and become moderate intensity
during the evening commute. Travel may become difficult with slick
conditions and lowered visibility. 1 to 3 inches of snow is
expected from Salcha north and up to 4 inches in the White
Mountains through tonight. The snow lightens tonight and may even
stop before a second round arrives with snow showers for the
morning commute tomorrow which may disrupt travel again.

Please leave extra time for the commute, and drive slowly.

BB