Brisk Wind Advisory 101, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
320 AM AKST Tue Mar 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
The West Coast will remain active as several waves of moisture
move north along the Coast and northeast into the northern
portions of the Western Interior and Central Brooks Range. The
North Slope will pick up in activity as this second storm moves
north and east out of the Central Brooks Range over the Eastern
North Slope. Winter Storm Warnings remain through this morning for
portions of the West Coast and Winter Storm Watches have been
issued for the Eastern Arctic Coast for developing blizzard
conditions Wednesday night and Thursday. A front will push
through the Western Interior into the Central and Eastern Interior
Wednesday night and Thursday will bring generally 1 to 3 inches
of snowfall to these areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Air and Analysis...
Aloft at 500 mb the high amplitude ridge over the Beaufort Sea,
Mainland Alaska and the Northern Pacific will rapidly weaken as a
strong shortwave moves northeast from the Eastern Bering Sea over
the ridge in the Interior Wednesday and then eventually moves
south and east over the Yukon on Thursday. As the ridge breaks
down zonal flow develops over Northern Alaska through the end of
the week. Model spread continues to be large in the extended
periods with a wide range of solutions, but in general ridging
builds over the Bering Sea and troughing develops over Mainland
Alaska leading to below normal temperatures.

Models...
The 7th 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z upper air
data and surface analysis and verified well against the 06z
surface observations. Models rain in good agreement in the short
range and mid range but begin to displace considerable spread by
the weekend and beyond. The models in general bring a return to a
more zonal flow over Northern Alaska with several weak waves
moving rapidly over the area with periods of clouds, flurries,
light snow as well as breaks in the clouds. Temperatures will
remain above normal into mid week and then trend cooler with below
normal temperatures by late week and the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The latest storm to impact the West Coast continues to bring snow
and blowing snow as well as freezing rain to the West Coast mainly
from the Seward Peninsula northward today and will push north
into the Southern Chukchi Sea this afternoon and will push just
west of Point Barrow this evening. A second and much weaker low
pressure system near the Pribilof Islands will continue to weaken
and push north and east into the YK Delta Wednesday morning and
into the Western Interior Wednesday afternoon. Light snow
generally in the 1 to 3 inch range will sweep east through the
Western Interior into the Central Interior Wednesday night. The
low will continue to move north and east over the Central Brooks
Range and onto the northeast Arctic Coast with snow and blowing
snow. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 30s
along the Coast and Lower YK Delta and in the lower 30s to upper
20s inland. Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens along
the Coast north of the Seward Peninsula and mainly in the 20s
elsewhere.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Decreasing clouds today with light winds and limited
precipitation. Temperatures today will be well above normal with
high temperatures in the teens in the Yukon Flats to the 30s near
Fairbanks and into the 40s in the Alaska Range. A front moving
north and east out of the Western Interior Wednesday afternoon and
evening will bring a period of light snow Wednesday night and
into Thursday with generally 1 to 3 inches of snow expected in
most areas and 4 to 6 inches expected in the Alaska Range.
Temperatures will fall back into the 20s on Thursday and teens on
Friday while low temperatures will drop below zero again by
Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Mostly cloudy with flurries, freezing drizzle and light snow will
continue over most areas today and into Wednesday. Winds and snow
will increase Wednesday evening over the Eastern Arctic Coast
where Winter Storm Watches for blizzard conditions have been
hoisted beginning Wednesday evening and continuing into Thursday.
A 1016 mb low moving northeast through the Beaufort Sea north of
Demarcation Point combined with high pressure in the Yukon will
produce strong westerly winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast and
combined with moisture from a weak low pressure moving north and
east over the Central Brooks Range out of the Central Interior
will produce low visibilities in blowing snow over the Eastern
North Slope. Temperatures on the North Slope will be falling over
the next several days with high temperatures today in the 30s over
the Western portions and 20s over the eastern portions. Low
temperatures tonight will drop into the single digits and teens.
High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 20s while much
colder temperatures move in on Thursday with high temperatures
around zero along the coast and lower teens in the Brooks Range.
Low temperatures tonight will drop into the teens and single
digits while low temperatures Wednesday drop into the single
digits above and below and on Thursday drop into the single digits
to teens below.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...General unsettled pattern with
periods of light snow expected over much of the area.
Temperatures will cool beginning Wednesday and will be below
normal by the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ211-213.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ203-204.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-215.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ201.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
     Gale Warning for PKZ245.
&&