Blizzard Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

874 
WWAK42 PAFG 180843
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1143 PM AKST Tue Jan 17 2023

AKZ207-180945-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230118T0900Z/
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
1143 PM AKST Tue Jan 17 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...


$$

AKZ213-181500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230118T1500Z/
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, 
and Diomede
1143 PM AKST Tue Jan 17 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility. Additional 
  snow accumulations of up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 
  50 mph. Visibility one half mile or less at times. Wind chills 
  to 40 below.

* WHERE...Near the Bering Strait.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Areas of 
  blowing snow are causing low visibility. Large snow drifts 
  will form. Wind chills to 40 below zero could cause frostbite 
  on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
138 PM AKST Tue Jan 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Winds diminishing on the West Coast through the
night, but for the Northwest Coast around Point Lay winds will
remain relatively strong with blowing snow reducing visibility.
Precipitation will be tapering to flurries or off in most areas
with little, if any, precipitation expected in the forecast area
Wednesday. The Tanana Valley Jet continues around Delta Junction,
it will settle down some overnight, but pick back up Wednesday
afternoon with gusts around 35 mph expected. The remainder of the
Interior is quiet with a mix of clouds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...17/12Z solutions remain in reasonable agreement, but
lots of moving parts, so mainly only in the near term before they
diverge to the point that an equal blend would be unrealistic.
NAM and Canadian solutions handling the winds in the coastal areas
well, while the GFS is handling the Tanana Valley Jet winds well,
so will be using those solutions. Precipitation for the near term
is sparse with mainly flurries expected, so will use an equal
blend through the short term. The temperature database for the
short term is pretty good, so will make minor adjustments to
match current localized trends.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging continues over the Siberian Arctic
as the low that is undercutting it has moved over the Chukchi Sea
at 495 dam with toughing extending northeast over the Central
Beaufort Sea. Troughing also extends south to a 506 dam low over
Nunivak Island, then southeast to a 503 dam low 300 nm south of
Prince William Sound. Weak ridging has pushed north over the
Central Aleutians, while the ridging over the Central and Eastern
Interior has weakened as the primary axis has rotated northeast
over MacKenzie Bay and the nearshore waters off the Eastern Arctic
Coast. A weaker secondary axis lies over the Upper Yukon Flats to
the Lower Yukon Delta then west over St Matthew Island. Wednesday
afternoon the low undercutting the ridging will be over the
Chukotsk Peninsula at 490 dam, while a second low 700 nm north of
Deadhorse will be moving southwest and undercutting the ridge as
well. The low over Nunivak Island will move over the southwest
mainland as it dissipates, and a 505 dam low will move near
Unalaska. The low over the Gulf of Alaska will weaken and move
northeast over Dawson YT at 512 dam as it dissipates. The ridging
that was pushing over the Aleutians will slide east and push north
over the Gulf of Alaska and across the Central Interior to the
Central Brooks Range. A shortwave will will move over the
southwest mainland and Cook Inlet. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm lies
from Glennallen to Fort Yukon to Ambler to Cape Romanzof, while
the -20 isotherm lies north of the coast to Deadhorse to Kivalina
to Gambell. The -20C isotherm will drift offshore Thursday with
little change expected over the interior through Friday.

Surface...Broad cyclonic flow continues across the state as low
pressure dominates around a 969 mb low that has moved to the
eastern Gulf of Alaska 150 nm southwest of Yakutat, and a 985 mb
low is weakening near Dillingham. Leeside troughing north of the
Alaska Range has weakened. In the Arctic a 1049 mb high north of
the New Siberian Islands has moved west, and the strong pressure
gradient that was over the northwest Arctic Coast and West Coast
is shifting offshore. Wednesday morning high pressure will be
pushing southeast across the Central Arctic Coast to the Brooks
Range, while broad low pressure persists across most of the
mainland with the low remaining near Yakutat at 978 mb, with a 986
mb low near Talkeetna, and a 994 mb low will develop near Point
Hope. The low near Point hope will help tighten the pressure
gradient around Point Lay with strong winds persisting there. A
965 mb low will move to 300 nm south of Nikolski. Wednesday
afternoon the low near Yakutat will start to merge with the low
south of the Aleutians as it moves to 200 nm south of Cold Bay at
967 mb. The low near Point Hope will drift west into the Chukchi
Sea as it dissipates. The high pressure in the Siberian Arctic
will continue to push southeast to the Brooks Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Light snow or flurries in the
coastal areas with a mix of clouds in the Brooks Range and plains.
Winds from Utqiagvik west are northeast to east 20 to 30 mph and
will be turning more from the east overnight and diminishing.
Winds around Point Lay will remain fairly strong from the
northeast becoming east at 15 to 25 mph. Winds east of Utqiagvik
northeast to 15 mph, while winds in the plains and Brooks Range
will be variable to 10 mph. Snow will linger on the northwest
coast and combine with blowing snow to reduce visibility to less
than one half mile at times. Snowfall will generally be less than
one inch. Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night will range
from the 20s below in the plains to single digits below along the
coast to single digits above in the Brooks Range. High
temperatures Wednesday will range from teens below in the plains,
to single digits below along the coast, to single digits above in
the Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...Remains windy and snowy from
Point Hope to the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island with near
blizzard conditions at times this evening. Strongest winds will be
on the outer capes, Diomede, and St Lawrence Island with
northwest to north winds 20 to 35 mph diminishing overnight to 10
to 20 mph. Snow tapering off this evening for most areas with just
some lingering flurries overnight. Winds in Norton Sound
northeast 10 to 20 mph, in Kotzebue Sound northwest 5 to 15 mph,
while the inland areas will have variable winds to 10 mph. Low
temperatures tonight and Wednesday night will range from around 15
below to 5 above. High temperatures Wednesday will range from
single digits above and below to around 10 above in the Lower
Yukon Delta.

Central and Eastern Interior...A mix of clouds with a flurry
possible. Winds variable to 10 mph in most locations, the
exception will be east to southeast winds gusting around 35 mph at
Delta Junction. The winds at Delta Junction will be diminishing
overnight, then increase Wednesday evening to gusting around 35
mph. Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night will range from
around 20 below to around 5 above with temperatures around
Fairbanks 5 to 15 below. High temperatures Wednesday will range
from around 5 below to around 20 above. Warmest in the Alaska
Range, while temperatures around Fairbanks will be in the single
digits above and below.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A strong low will move into
the Northern Gulf of Alaska Friday with a trough developing on the
West Coast with some snow, and strong winds developing near the
Alaska Range passes. A weather front will move across the Alaska
Range spreading snow north across the Interior. Areas from
Fairbanks south may be downsloped out with the snow falling mainly
north of Fairbanks Saturday. A second push of moisture on Sunday
will bring more snow to the Interior, including Fairbanks. Strong
winds around Delta Junction, and near Alaska Range passes Friday
night and Saturday, and again on Sunday night and Monday.
Temperatures near or just above climatological normals will be
well above normals next weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ201-225-230.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 23