Blizzard Warning 24, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
413 AM AKST Sat Nov 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong front will impact the west coast Sunday morning into
Monday. Snow and blowing snow begins Sunday morning for the West
Coast and Interior, with strong southeast winds likely near Point
Hope and Wales. Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for the
West Coast and West Interior. The East Interior is expected to
also see 2 to 4 inches of snowfall Monday, with a few zones in
Watches for heavier snow in the Central Interior. Minor coastal
erosion and flooding is possible beginning Sunday night and
lasting into Monday night for Norton Sound and the Yukon Delta,
where a Coast Flood Watch is now in effect. The next winter
weather system moves in late Tuesday night into Southwest Alaska
and brings possible heavy snowfall again Wednesday into Thursday.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper levels, analysis and model discussion...
Models in better agreement in the short term with a deep trough
setting up over the west coast that will push a front across
the west coast Sunday into Monday. This shortwave will move
across the Interior Monday into Tuesday. Troughing and unsettled
weather will remain over the west coast on Tuesday. An upper level
low will move across Bristol Bay on Wednesday and into the
Interior on Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...

We are watching a developing system that will impact the Interior
Sunday night into Monday. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect
for the Koyukuk Valley and Central Interior starting Sunday
afternoon and into Monday afternoon. Moderate snowfall begins then
in the East Interior Sunday night and may bring a few inches of
snowfall by Monday evening to Fairbanks. The potential for gusty
winds develops in the eastern alaska Range Sunday night into
Monday morning with gusts to 60 mph possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...

A strong front will impact the west coast Sunday morning into
Monday. A mix of rain/snow and freezing rain near the coast,
mainly south of Norton Sound along with snow and blowing snow for
the West Coast inland areas and Western Interior. Strong
southeast winds likely near Point Hope and Wales with gusts to 60
mph possible. Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for the West
Coast and West Interior. Blizzard conditions from the combination
of heavy snowfall and winds gusting to 60 mph remain over the
Baldwin Peninsula, with the city of Kotzebue, and near Kivalina on
the northern shores of Kotzebue Sound. Strong winds will also
push water up along the coast from Norton Sound south along the
Yukon Delta. Minor coastal flooding and shoreline erosion are
possible for area communities on the Norton Sound and Yukon Delta
beginning Sunday night. A Coastal Flood Watch is still in effect
for expected water levels from 4 to 7 feet by Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Drier southerly flow in the low to mid-levels Saturday creates
only scattered snow shower chances over the central and eastern
North Slope. Coastal winds remain 10 to 20 mph, but decrease
further inland to 5 to 10 mph. Southeast winds begin to increase
near Point Hope on the Northwest Arctic Coast Sunday, with gusts
to 60 mph Sunday afternoon. Heavy snowfall is also possible in
this time period, and a Winter Storm Watch for possible blizzard
conditions Sunday remains in effect.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

Another southern-track low pressure center moves into the
southern Bering Sea Tuesday evening. This second system quickly
builds widespread snowfall chances again from southwest to
northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Expect another
round of moderate snowfall potential for southwest Alaska, into
the much of the Interior for Wednesday through Thursday. As a deep
trough builds over the Arctic, that southern-track low lifts out
of the region by Friday and a cold front slides across the
forecast area. Much colder temperatures at 850 mb expected for
the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated waters of 2 to 4
feet above the normal high tide line Sunday evening build to be 4 to
7 feet on Monday and Monday night for the entire Yukon Delta and
Norton Sound as southwest winds and a strong low move inland. A
Coastal Flood Watch has been issued Sunday evening to late Monday
night for the possible impacts of coastal flooding in this time
period. Elevated water levels are expected to begin to recede
starting early Tuesday morning.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801-815-817.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ813-814-816-819-828>830-851-852.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ821>824.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ821-822-824-825.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ831-846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-811>813-850-851-856>859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-805-807-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-855.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-816-817-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811>813-857>860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ861.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1241 PM AKST Sat Nov 11 2023

AKZ802-803-121500-
Northwest Arctic Coast-Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, and Utqiagvik
1241 PM AKST Sat Nov 11 2023

...Elevated Water Levels Expected Monday Through Tuesday...

A strong storm moving through the Chukchi Sea Sunday into Monday
will push a surge of water into the northwest Arctic Coast.
Persistent south to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph will develop
across the Chukchi Sea and result in elevated water levels 1 to 2
feet above the normal high tide line Monday through Tuesday. The
combination of elevated water levels and wave runup may result in
an increased risk of shoreline erosion. Residents are urged to
move items on the beach to higher ground.