Blizzard Warning 15, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKST Sun Feb 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are generally expected across
northern Alaska into the new week. Low pressure along the Arctic
Coast is still causing wind and blowing snow from Utqiagvik east to
the Canadian border. Arctic air will settle into the bulk of Alaska
today leading to much colder than average conditions tonight through
early Tuesday. The next system is poised to arrive on the Western
Coast Monday night into Tuesday with winds and accumulating snow
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Model guidance appears to have initialized well with the ridging
beginning to take shape aloft. Still have a vertically stacked low
slowly filling about 200 miles north of Utqiagvik. As that low
drifts southeast approaching the Arctic Coast, the focus of the
strong winds are now over the central and eastern Beaufort Sea
Coast. An upper-level trough extends southeast through the eastern
Brooks Range. To the west shortwave ridging is occuring through the
Bering Strait with much broader ridging south through the Aleutians.
This broad ridging will amplify as the next low pressure system
drives eastward through the Bering Sea Monday.

At the surface there are not a lot of discernible features that
will drive the weather directly outside of the surface low near
the Arctic Coast. Broad weak surface low pressure over eastern
Alaska will give way to advancing weak high pressure through the
Interior Monday. The 964 mb low near Attu Island will quickly move
through the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday, deepening to near 957
mb southwest of St. Lawrence Island Tuesday afternoon. Models are
now quite consistent in the evolution of this system as it
approaches the West Coast. Beyond Tuesday night models diverge
slightly in timing and placement of precipitation details as the
wave energy translates to low developing in the Gulf of Alaska. A
blend of models will be utilized up through that point.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Clouds and strong winds continue across the central and eastern
Beaufort Sea Coast. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for
these areas as visibilities have dropped to around half a mile as
the vertically stacked low approaches from the north. We should
see gradual improvement from west to east beginning with Utqiagvik
this afternoon. West of a line from Atqasuk to Anaktuvuk Pass
clearing is evident on Satellite. Clear and cold conditions are
expected tonight as efficient radiational cooling will drop
temperatures from 20 to 35 below from the Brooks Range through the
western Arctic Plain and Coast. Highs Monday will creep up into
the mid teens below before dropping again to 20s and 30s below
Monday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Mostly clear conditions are evident over the West Coast and
Western Interior this afternoon. Some openings in the sea ice may
lead to some low clouds around the southern Norton Sound and
perhaps through Kotzebue Sound. The next system pushes through the
Bering Sea Monday with snow and wind reaching the West Coast
Monday night. Strong winds and accumulating snow will move
northward reaching the Seward Peninsula Tuesday morning and
Kotzebue later on Tuesday. Strong winds and fresh snow should
bring impactful blowing snow to Coastal communities. Have issued
Winter Storm Watches for a few Coastal Forecast Zones ahead of the
storm. Temperatures tonight will be much colder with clear and
calming conditions in place. We'll see low ranging from around 20
to 25 below north near Kivalina, through the Seward Peninsula and
inland from Huslia to Galena to teens and single digits below
south from Unalakleet. The frigid temperatures will be relatively
short- lived along the West Coast and Western Interior, however as
Bering Sea system approaches Monday night. Temperatures will
increase through midweek with warmer air surging northward. By
Tuesday afternoon high temperatures will be in the teens to near
20 above through the Yukon Delta and single digits above and below
north of Unalakleet and inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Stubborn patchy cloud cover lingering in the Interior as a broad
weak trough of low pressure swings through. We could see a few
flurries east of Fairbanks and through the Yukon Flats this
evening, but any accumulation will be negligible. Clear and cold
conditions expected tonight for most in the Interior. Lows will be
in the 20s to 30s below from Lake Minchumina to Tanana north to
Bettles. The Yukon Flats could be a few degrees warmer, depending
on remnant cloud cover. Fairbanks through the Tanana Valley should
range from teens to mid 20s below. Cold and clear will be the
story again for Monday as highs may creep up to near zero from
Healy and Denali Park to single digits below through the Tanana
Valley and Yukon Flats. Another cold night on tap for Monday night
with low temperatures similar to those expected tonight. The only
difference being that the Yukon Flats will likely be the focus
for the coldest temperatures come Tuesday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7... Snow chances will likely focus
on the Central and Eastern Interior in the middle of the week as the
Gulf of Alaska low pressure system moves into southeast Alaska and
wrap around snow moves in from the Yukon. Snow chances will then
taper down to flurries Thursday night into Friday as major forcing
moves away from the area. Another weak system is possible for next
weekend, but guidance is also showing the potential for a high
amplitude ridge building into Sunday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ211-213>215.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ201.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&