Blizzard Warning 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

417 
WWAK41 PAFG 121230
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

AKZ201-122100-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230212T2100Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
330 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Until noon AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 55 
  below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little 
  as 5 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

AKZ203-122100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230213T0000Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
330 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  55 below zero.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN..Until 3 PM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

&&

$$

AKZ204-122100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230213T0000Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
330 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  55 below zero.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

&&

$$

646 
WWAK41 PAFG 122038
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1138 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

AKZ201-131500-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230212T2100Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0039.230212T2100Z-230213T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
1138 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST MONDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Blowing snow and cold wind chills ongoing. Winds gusting
  as high as 30 mph will reduce visibility to one half mile or
  less at times. Wind chills as low as 55 below zero.

* WHERE...Point Lay and vicinity.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 55 below
  zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5
  minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

AKZ203-204-122145-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230213T0000Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, Kuparuk, 
Kaktovik, and Flaxman Island
1138 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
110 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic low over the West Coast is bringing snow and blowing
snow to much of that region. Snow will increase over the Western
Interior and then shift east Sunday as a strong arctic front
moves across the southern Interior. Many areas will see light
snow over the Interior, with blowing and drifting snow in the AK
Range passes and across parts of the Tanana Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A deep arctic low, 499 dam, is centered over the Chukotka
Peninsula. A strong embedded shortwave trough is rotating north
across the Seward Peninsula around the periphery of this low. This
low is bringing snow from the Seward Peninsula to the Western
Interior. Another separate upper trough is moving into the Gulf of
Alaska from the Pacific. Broad SW flow exists aloft over the
Eastern Interior. A semi-permanent 530 dam blocking high persists
over the high arctic near the Dateline. At the surface there is a
993 mb low over Eastern Norton Sound with a 1036 mb high over the
high arctic. This gradient continues to support strong gale force
winds through the Bering Strait and near the Lisburne Peninsula.

Model Discussion...
Models are now in very good agreement with the general pattern
over the next few days, and are in much better agreement with the
tight mesoscale low over Eastern Norton Sound, as well as the snow
band as it shifts east through Monday. The NAM Nest and canadian
RGEM have a better on handle on winds, especially as the arctic
front goes across the AK Range and into the Tanana Valley. So they
were favored, with GFS and ECMWF for precip/snow, which supports
2-5" across parts of the Western Interior and 1-3" over the
Eastern Interior through Monday. The one area where the NAM was
favored was for the Eastern Alaska Range which is verifying much
better with upslope snowfall.

Central and Eastern Interior...
South flow continues across the AK Range with a moderate Tanana
Valley Jet and upslope snowfall in the Eastern Alaska Range as per
the FAA webcams and DOT obs in that area. The arctic front will
shift east Sunday, rather quickly, as very strong cold air
advection moves across the region. 850 temps are progged to drop
from -8C to -24C by tomorrow night, so there should be brief
periods of gusty winds across the Tanana Valley and through the
Ak Range. Expecting significant blowing and drifting snow in the
AK Range since 2-5" of new snow will fall through tonight across
the south end of the pass. Winds will also blow from the north
through Windy Pass along the Parks. Expect a general 1-2" of snow,
maybe local amounts to 3", by Monday afternoon when the snow ends.
Expect little to no snowfall from Fort Yukon northward or
westward. Given the stout cold air advection, expect some periods
of snow squalls.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Snow is moving north across the Seward Pen and into Kotzebue Sound
with a secondary area of light snow over the Nulato Hills and
Yukon Valley. The associated low will gradually weaken so gale
force north winds today will gradually drop off tonight and
tomorrow along the immediate coast where blizzard conditions
continue. Expect a general 1-3" of additional snow over Kotzebue
Sound area with 3-6" in the Yukon Valley and Middle Kusko through
Monday. Snow tapers off with colder air settling in Monday night
and Tuesday although stratus and lingering clouds may keep temps
from completely bottoming out.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Ice crystals, stratus, and some minor blowing snow are being
reported along the eastern half of the arctic coast, which is also
where wind chills are dropping into the -50 F range. This will
continue through Sunday evening then the gradient weakens,
although cold temps will persist as they bottom out back into the
-30 F range. Out west, a stronger gradient is in place, which is
 supporting more widespread blowing and drifting snow which will
 likely persist to some degree into Monday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Midweek and beyond, high pressure will be settling in so there
will likely be quite a bit of dry weather for the Interior with
periods of cold temps/inversions. Weakening fronts will clip the
southwest coast, but it is looking rather likely now the storm
track will continue to remain well to the south as the arctic
Interior high dominates the Mainland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ216.
     Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-204.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ226.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ201.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-230.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

Ahsenmacher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
127 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

AKZ222>224-121500-
Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha, Delta Junction,
Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, Healy Lake,
Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, Chicken,
and Boundary
127 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...Arctic front to bring snow and gusty winds Sunday...

Snow showers will develop along an arctic front which will
quickly push east across the Interior Sunday into Sunday night.
Winds will become gusty in snow squalls with the possibility of 10
to 20 mph gusts over the Fairbanks area and surrounding hills.
Farther east, northwest winds will likely gust into the 30 mph
range toward Tok and Northway. With fluffy snow accumulations of 1
to 2 inches, expect blowing and drifting snow in areas with gusty
winds.