Storm Warning 90, NWS Anchorage, AK

224 
FZAK51 PAFC 111145
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-120015-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 980 mb North Pacific low remains nearly stationary through Sat
morning. Its front pushes from the eastern Gulf to the western
Gulf through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ710-120015-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ711-120015-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ712-120015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ715-120015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ716-120015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ714-120015-
Resurrection Bay-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming Variable wind 10
kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ724-120015-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-120015-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ726-120015-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-120015-
Port of Valdez-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-120015-
Valdez Narrows-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ722-120015-
Valdez Arm-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ723-120015-
Passage Canal-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-120015-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ731-120015-
Barren Islands East-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ733-120015-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ732-120015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ734-120015-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ736-120015-
Chiniak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ737-120015-
Marmot Bay-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ738-120015-
Shelikof Strait-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ742-120015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ740-120015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ741-120015-
Kachemak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Thu May 11 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt.
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 AM AKDT Wed May 10 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A wet pattern continues across Southcentral as a large low
pressure system in the North Pacific is resulting in largescale
onshore flow over the region.

Radar imagery shows widespread precipitation moving onshore across
the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement. The biggest challenge
continues to be resolving small scale local effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions continue this TAF period. Low level wind
shear is likely before 00z as winds will remain light and variable
near the surface with SE 25-30kt winds aloft. Southeasterly
Turnagain Arm winds are expected after 00z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Friday)...

The Jet stream continues to pump in moisture air from the south.
This moisture will interact with a broad low pressure system with
several surface lows and fronts moving across the Gulf. The first
low is tracking towards and just south of Kodiak Island this will
bring moderate to heavy rain today across windward portions of the
Island including Kodiak City. An occluded front with slightly
cooler air will push towards the northern Gulf through tonight
keeping the rain going across Prince William Sound and across the
eastern Kenai Peninsula. Snow levels will hover near 2,000 feet
through tonight. The next shortwave trough will push across the
Gulf and reach coastal areas by Thursday morning with rain
continuing along the coast. Meanwhile a surface trough will push
across Kodiak Island Thursday morning with the rain ending with a
few lingering showers in the higher terrain. By Thursday afternoon
the shortwave moves towards western Alaska this will bring an end
to the steady rain along the coast with a more showery pattern
setting up through Friday as more shortwaves rotate around the low
pressure system across the Gulf. The gusty winds will continue
along Turnagain Arm through tonight as well as the Knik River
winds. These winds will decrease Thursday and Friday as the
pressure gradient relaxes across the area. However, the Turnagain
winds will bend into west Anchorage Thursday and Friday afternoon
but will not be overly strong with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph
possible. Finally temperatures will slowly rise closer to normal
values as a bit of sunshine mixed with clouds is possible on
Thursday and Friday this will also cause the snow levels to rise
from 2,500 to 3,500 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

A large, vertically stacked low lingering over the western Gulf
will maintain precipitation along the Alaska Peninsula and eastern
Aleutians through Friday morning. Steady precipitation will
gradually become more showery as the low weakens and continues to
dive south. In addition to precipitation, gusty east to
northeasterly winds are expected across much of Southwest, with
the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay area seeing the strongest
winds. With Bering high pressure approaching from the west, the
strengthening pressure gradient will also support gusty northerly
winds through the gaps of the eastern Aleutians. The strongest
winds are generally expected this evening through Thursday
morning. Winds and chances for precipitation then taper off for
most of Friday as surface high pressure enters the region. Expect
a warming trend across Southwest through at least Friday.

Farther to the west, the aforementioned surface ridge of high
pressure has its axis approaching the western Aleutians and
Bering this morning. High pressure will continue to spread
eastward and promote drier conditions, marine stratus, and lighter
winds through Wednesday. By Thursday morning, a front reaches the
western Aleutians and appears to quickly shear apart throughout
the day. However, an incoming shortwave will revive the front over
the central Bering/Aleutians on Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Beyond Saturday, general model consensus suggests an unsettled
pattern for Southcentral, and an active pattern for the Aleutians
and Southwest which host the passage of several more low pressure
systems. Synoptically features as just discussed have fair model
agreement with some discrepancies regarding the precise timing of
shortwaves leading to moderate forecast confidence. One such
source of model disagreement lies in timing the passage of
easterly waves coming into Southcentral over the weekend.
Additionally, the wind fields represented by the models have very
little agreement over Southcentral and the northern Gulf of
Alaska. It is expected generally that Southcentral will be seeing
an unsettled pattern with the potential for precipitation across
the northern Gulf of Alaska coastline. Features over Southwest
Alaska and the Bering are larger more synoptic features, and the
agreement on system progression there is stronger.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF
LONG TERM...CL