Storm Warning 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

079 
FZAK52 PAFC 201305
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-210145-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 mb low 200 nm southeast of Shemya this morning will move 250
nm northwest of Shemya at 970 mb Saturday morning. The low then 
moves over Siberia Sunday morning. A second 968 mb North Pacific 
low moves 310 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor Sunday morning. 

$$

PKZ150-210145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-210145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt except NW 35 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. 
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-210145-
Bristol Bay-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
Heavy freezing spray near the ice edge. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-210145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt except NW 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 56N.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, NE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-210145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-210145-
Unalaska Bay-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-210145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft in
the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-210145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-210145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft building to 28 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-210145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-210145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 21 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-210145-
Adak to Kiska-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Bering side, seas 14 ft building to 22 ft
in the afternoon. Pac side, seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-210145-
Kiska to Attu-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. From
Shemya W, NW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft Bering side...18 ft Pac side.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-210145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-210145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4
cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-210145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-210145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
405 AM AKST Fri Jan 20 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 20 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 22 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKST Thu Jan 19 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The pattern remains amplified. An upper level low currently
extends across eastern Siberia and across the Bering Strait. A
series of upper level troughs are currently lifting northward
across Southcentral and Southwest Alaska.

Closer to the surface, radar imagery shows rain moving northward
across the Gulf of Alaska into Prince William Sound. Another area
of showers is currently lingering across the northern Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Forecast confidence overall is average as guidance has a decent
handle on the placement of synoptic scale features. However, the
smaller scale mesoscale features continue to pose a forecast
challenge. The other challenge continues to be the timing of
precipitation across Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for this TAF
package. Temporary IFR conditions are possible in areas of low
stratus through 18z this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday)...

A broad and elongated low pressure system is moving into the
western Gulf this morning. Precipitation is falling along the
northern Gulf coast and Kodiak this morning. A series of
shortwaves moving southeast to northwest will move across
Southcentral over the next few days. The track and position of the
low as it moves through the Gulf will be the biggest factor in
the orientation of the frontal boundaries, coupled with the
direction of the winds and the balance between onshore versus
offshore flow. These considerations will affect the outcome for
the precipitation type, especially for communities along the coast
and gaps effected by terrain and south to southeasterly flow.
Late tonight through Friday morning, winds look to turn
southeasterly and areas along the Gulf coast and through Turnagain
Arm could see a mix of rain and snow. Each successive wave could
bring more warm air through and transition some areas to rain for
a period. Friday afternoon, winds should shift to some sort of
northerly and bring cooler air back to the area through Saturday.
By Saturday night, a ridge will build from west to east across
Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday night)...

Scattered snow showers look to continue along the Alaska Peninsula
(especially the central AKPEN) today today through Friday night as
cold air advection from from the northwest continues on the
backside of an eastward moving North Pacific low headed to the
Gulf of Alaska. Winds could be stronger and gusty through the gaps
and passes along the North Pacific side of the AKPEN especially
from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, light
snow is possible this afternoon for portions of Bristol Bay, the
interior Kuskokwim Delta, as well as the lower Kuskokwim Valley as
a series of weak shortwaves within the broader upper-level trough
lift northward out of the North Pacific and traverse southwest
Alaska. Any snow accumulations are expected to be light and not
impactful. Upper ridging, along with quiet weather, builds in from
the Bering Sea Friday night as the upper pattern begins to
amplify. Low temperatures Friday night could be quite cold as
strong northerly flow through a good portion of the atmospheric
column takes hold of mainland Southwest. Portions of the Kuskokwim
Delta and lower Kuskokwim Valley could get down as low as the
negative teens. Depending on the wind magnitude coupled with off-
shore flow from the northeast, wind-chills will have to be
monitored closely for those areas. The next weather-maker arrives
Saturday night when a North Pacific low pushes its front northward
into the AKPEN. A period of snow looks likely at the onset, but
warmer air could work in depending on how far north the front
actually goes. Stay tuned for further updates as the overall
active pattern looks to continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 3: Today
through Saturday night)...

The overall active weather pattern for the Bering Sea and the
Aleutian Chain looks to continue through the short-term period.
Convective snow showers for the Pribilof Islands, central Chain,
and eastern Chain through tonight before the pattern begins to
amplify and an upper-level ridge builds northward into the central
Bering from the North Pacific. However, the western Chain will
remain active and under the influence of an upper-level low and
surface low bringing snow showers and gusty gale-force winds to
the area Friday morning through the evening hours as the surface
low moves northwestward. There could even be some storm-force
winds over the off-shore marine zones Friday night through
Saturday morning The pressure gradient tightens between this
departing low and ridging in the eastern Bering to produce a
corridor of gales over the central Chain and eventually the
eastern Chain Friday afternoon through the rest of the short-term.
These winds eventually turn to the east/northeast as yet another
North Pacific low and front lift northward to the Chain Saturday
morning and lingers through the weekend. Rain and rain/snow mix
look likely with this system as warmer air moves in from the
south. There is still some uncertainty though with exact track and
timing of this system. Stay tuned for further forecast updates.

&&.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An active pattern remains likely for the first half of the coming
week, but most of the details are getting lost in the complex
interaction between a handful of key features that continues to
prove a struggle for models. By the start of the period on
Sunday, models are all showing that a polar low harboring frigid,
Arctic air over Siberia will become displaced by a ridge
developing over the Bering in the short term, resulting in the low
and it's associated Arctic air moving west into the Interior and
North Slope by the end of the weekend. Another large, synoptic low
will be approaching the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
from the south by Sunday as well. The resulting pressure gradient
between the low and strong ridge over the northern Bering will
drive a broad swath of northeasterly gale force winds across an
impressive chunk of the Bering Sea, with sustained gales likely
persisting into Monday. An deep frontal zone will extend into the
Gulf east of the center, with a new low likely to form at the
front's triple point somewhere south of the Kenai Peninsula or
Kodiak Island by Sunday evening. Heavy precipitation will spread
into the northern Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound region along
and ahead of this front as a surge of moisture and lift spreads
north through Monday.

From late Monday onwards, the overall outlook becomes increasingly
blurry, with models diverging markedly with the handling of the
Arctic low/trough over northern Alaska. The most recent suite of
operational model runs is showing the low becoming squeezed
between the blocking high over the Bering and another upper ridge
extending into northwestern Canada along a northeast to southwest
axis. Depending on how far the trough becomes stretched to the
south, very cold air could spill down into Southwest Alaska between
Monday and Tuesday, perhaps lingering into Wednesday or later. A
large baroclinic zone will set up to the south across the Gulf and
into Southcentral, with much warmer, moist and southwesterly flow
continuing to push northeast around the upstream ridge. This
should favor continued moderate to heavy snow and coastal rain
across much of the Prince William Sound region, perhaps extending
farther north at times into Southcentral and Bristol Bay. The more
northward extent of snowfall will depend on exactly where the
clash between the Arctic air spilling into the Bering/Southwest
and warmer, maritime air over the Gulf sets up, which remains
highly uncertain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 160 179 180 185 412 414.
Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 132 139 150 175 176 177 178 411 412 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DAN
LONG TERM...AS