Storm Warning 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

009 
FZAK52 PAFC 120105
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-121400-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 mb low 600 nm south of Attu strengthens to 965 mb and moves to
200 nm southwest of Adak Sun night. The low then moves to 140 nm 
southeast of Adak at 970 mb Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-121400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-121400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-121400-
Bristol Bay-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Extreme freezing
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate 
on vessels.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-121400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-121400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-121400-
Unalaska Bay-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 7 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-121400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Snow.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-121400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-121400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-121400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-121400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 55 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-121400-
Adak to Kiska-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 60 kt. Bering side, seas 17 ft building to
25 ft after midnight. Pacific side, seas 30 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...N wind 55 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ178-121400-
Kiska to Attu-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...S wind 45 kt. Seas 39 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ179-121400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ180-121400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Seas in ice free
waters 6 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or 
greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. 
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. 

$$

PKZ181-121400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-121400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
405 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels. Snow showers.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Freezing spray. Seas in ice free waters 
4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 23 ft.

$$

657 
FZAK52 PAFC 121106
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130015-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 mb North Pacific low moves to 190 nm South of Adak at 967 
mb by Mon afternoon, then shifts to 125 nm South of Dutch Harbor 
at 980 mb for Tue morning. Its front moves over the Aleutians into
the Southern Alaska Peninsula by Tue morning. A 948 mb North 
Pacific low and front approaches the Western Aleutians for Tue 
morning. 

$$

PKZ150-130015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Higher gusts out of bays and passes. Seas 16
ft. Heavy freezing spray out of bays and passes.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray out of bays
and passes.
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Heavy freezing spray out of bays and passes.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt except W 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 20 kt
becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in
the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130015-
Bristol Bay-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per 
hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 25 kt increasing
to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the 
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130015-
Unalaska Bay-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Snow.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 30 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130015-
Adak to Kiska-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 60 kt. Bering side, seas 17 ft building to 24
ft after midnight. Pac side, seas 28 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130015-
Kiska to Attu-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 55 kt except NE 40 kt from Shemya W. Seas 16 ft
building to 22 ft after midnight.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft subsiding to 
3 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 3ft becoming 8ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...E wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-130015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-130015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
206 AM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels in the morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray after midnight. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft. 

$$

309 
FZAK52 PAFC 130008
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131230-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 965 mb North Pacific low moves to 130 nm south of Adak at 970 
mb Mon afternoon. The low moves to 125 nm south of Dutch Harbor 
at 980 mb Tue morning. A 935 mb North Pacific low and front 
approaches the western Aleutians Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-131230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes early. 
Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray N and W of Chirikof Island.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Heavy freezing spray NW of Sitkinak Island in the morning. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray during the evening.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 25 kt
becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft after
midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131230-
Bristol Bay-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. From Port Moller E, W wind 30 kt
becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
From Port Moller E, SE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131230-
Unalaska Bay-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. 
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft building to 31 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming NW 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 31 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 12 ft building 
to 20 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft subsiding to 22 ft 
after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131230-
Adak to Kiska-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 65 kt. Bering side, seas 17 ft building to 24 ft 
after midnight. Pacific side, seas 29 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 60 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 25 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131230-
Kiska to Attu-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt increasing to 60 kt after midnight. 
From Shemya W, NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft building 
to 22 ft after midnight.
.MON...N wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...E wind 60 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...S wind 50 kt. Seas 39 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW during the evening, then NE
after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the evening.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 2 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. 
Extreme freezing spray in the afternoon at a rate of 4 cm per 
hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. 
Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater 
may rapidly accumulate on vessels. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-131230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
308 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater 
may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strong low is situated over the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon
with its front extended from Bristol Bay and over Cook Inlet and
the north Gulf coast. This front is bringing snowfall to Southwest
Alaska and has induced the strong northeasterly winds in the
Kuskokwim Delta bringing in the Blizzard conditions. Snow and
blowing snow is also occurring around the north Gulf coast areas
with this front.

The jet stream is zonal off Asia and then turns more to the
northeast well south of Adak and then weakens just south of the
Gulf of Alaska. The jet stream trajectory will move eastward and
this will start to remove the upper level support from the AK
Peninsula low and the other surface low that can be seen south of
Adak on satellite.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement into early next week. The
biggest question with the models still revolves around the way a
triple point low moves into the northern Gulf and Cook Inlet area
Saturday into early Sunday. Confidence is also increasing with
the track and overall strength with the strong lows next week
moving along the Aleutians and Bering Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions should prevail through Saturday. There is a
chance for some light snow to bring MVFR conditions late Saturday
afternoon, but confidence is low in the track of weak upper level
short-waves lifting northward across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Monday)...

An active weather pattern continues across Southcentral Alaska
for the next few days as a series of lows move through the area.
Widespread gale and storm force winds along the coastal waters of
the northern Gulf will ease this evening and tonight. Strong
downslope forcing will remain in place across the Anchorage Bowl
and thus result in minimal precipitation with this first system.
The next low will then move in Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Downslope forcing is expected to be weaker with this next low
which means the chance for snow will be greater in Anchorage than
compared to this first low. Strong cold air advection is expected
in the wake of this second low on Monday. This strong cold air
advection will result in widespread storm force winds with
hurricane force gusts likely in the bays and passes. Heavy
freezing spray is also likely across the western Gulf on Monday
as a result of the strong winds combined with cold temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Monday)...

Blowing snow and stronger winds earlier causing near whiteout
conditions along coastal areas between Dillingham and Kipnuk is
beginning to subside as the wind field around the low now moving
up the Alaska Peninsula weakens on approach to Bristol Bay.
Falling snow will persist for quite a bit longer into Saturday
across parts of Bristol Bay and most of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
as the remnant low opens up into a trough and lifts northeast
around a nearly stationary upper level low drifting near St
Lawrence Island. Lingering light snowfall will slowly clear from
southwest to northeast through Sunday night as the main upper low
continues to drift north and as frigidly cold Arctic air blasts
into the region from the northern Bering. Frigidly cold temperatures
will return as skies begin to clear early on Monday while Arctic
air remains in place at the surface, with widespread lows early
Monday dropping into the -10s to -20s. Some rebound in temperatures
will begin by Monday night as the next strong frontal system on
the horizon approaches the Southwest coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3: Tonight
through Monday)...

Conditions are finally beginning to improve across most of the
region as the storm force low weakens to gale force over the
eastern Bering Sea. Northerly winds at or below small craft
intensity will continue for much of the day on Saturday as Arctic
air spills south into the Pribilof Islands and Aleutian Chain
from the northern Bering. Winds will pick back up to gale force
through gaps and passes along portions of the Alaska Peninsula on
Sunday as the surge of cold air couples with favorable upper level
support, with storm force gusts also possible near the peak of
gap wind intensity. Meanwhile, widespread freezing spray will
continue farther north due to the combination of gusty northerly
flow and cold air temperatures, with extreme freezing spray rates
expected along the ice edge through Sunday.

By Sunday evening, yet another very intense North Pacific low will
approach the western Aleutians from the southwest. Storm force
sustained winds will pick up from the northeast ahead of the low's
front, with gusts in Hurricane force range likely somewhere
between Adak and Shemya, depending on exactly where the corridor
of strongest winds develops and on the the exact low track. There
is a good chance precipitation ahead of the front/low will start
out as snow on Sunday evening due to the initially very cold
Arctic air in place ahead of this system. This could result in a
period of blowing snow and reduced visibility before warmer air
moves in and changes falling precipitation over to rain, depending
on whether surface temperatures are able to remain at or below
freezing as snow begins. The low will approach Atka as it starts
to weaken on Monday, with the front most likely remaining at or
near storm force as it progresses into the eastern Aleutians and
Pribilofs. Widespread snow and blowing snow will again be possible
across the Pribilofs as the front approaches Monday into Monday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A highly amplified pattern is expected next week with a series
of strong lows forecast to track across the region. Forecast
confidence remains above average as models continue to be
relatively consistent with the depiction of several strong
synoptic features. Tuesday morning, a weakening low centered near
the eastern Aleutians may bring a period of storm-force gusts
through the islands and to the Alaska Peninsula through early
Wednesday. Strong cold advection on the back side of the low will
help to mix down strong winds aloft and support snow showers and
periods of low visibility conditions as the low tracks east. Model
solutions appear slightly north of where they were yesterday and
in greater agreement with regards to the track of the low. This
would take it along a similar track to the low centered near the
southern tip of the Alaska Peninsula this evening. Precipitation
spreads into southern mainland Alaska on Tuesday as the low pushes
its front northward. The air mass out ahead of the low should be
sufficient to keep all precipitation snow for inland locations.
Along portions of the north Gulf coast, rain may be possible at
low elevations, especially on the east side of a weak triple point
low that looks to develop in the northern Gulf. Precipitation
gradually tapers off going into Wednesday as the main source of
moisture is shunted eastward and the broader upper-level trough
begins to lift out of the area.

Out west, a low near Kamchatka, potentially as deep as 940 mb,
pushes a storm force front into the western Aleutians on Tuesday.
Along with it comes a southerly push of warmer air, which should
quickly switch precipitation from snow to rain. The front sweeps
to the eastern Aleutians by Wednesday, but uncertainty grows
thereafter. Models begin to disagree on whether the front stalls
out or is able to push into Southwest Alaska Wednesday night. Both
GFS and EC favor an eastward progression, and if it materializes,
the warm air moving in over cold air at the surface may be
sufficient to produce a period of freezing rain along the Bristol
Bay coast, while the rest of the area would see snow. Both models
keep the front progressing into Southcentral, where it has the
potential to bring several inches of snow on Thursday, but this
is lower confidence. Various shortwaves rapidly lift out ahead of
the deep low as it decays over the western Bering Sea on Thursday
and Friday. While there is significant uncertainty with the
placement of these features, models are in rough agreement on
the potential for a second, weaker front to sweep across the
central/eastern Aleutians/Bering Sea to the southern mainland,
bring mostly snow, with low potential for rain/mixed precipitation
near the coast. Though timing and placement is uncertain, Southwest
Alaska is the most likely area for this front to bring precipitation,
with lower confidence of moving on into Southcentral for the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 125 131.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 160 165 179 180 185.
         Storm Warning 119.
         Gale Warning 125 130 132 139 150 155 178 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ED
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
LONG TERM...CQ