Storm Warning 35, NWS Anchorage, AK

989 
FZAK51 PAFC 061531 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-070430-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 970 mb low will move over the Kenai Peninsula and then rapidly 
dissipate Monday morning. A 1000 mb low forms at 125 nm south of 
Middleton Island Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-070430-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft. Rain and snow showers with isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ120-070430-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt in the morning diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 23 ft
subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt near the coast 
in the morning. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-070430-
Resurrection Bay-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft. 
Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-070430-
Prince William Sound-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-070430-
Port Valdez-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
snow showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-070430-
Valdez Narrows-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt.
Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray after midnight. Widespread snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft

$$

PKZ128-070430-
Valdez Arm-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
Snow showers.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-070430-
Passage Canal-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt in the morning. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-070430-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft in
the morning building to 9 ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-070430-
Barren Islands East-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-070430-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-070430-
Chiniak Bay-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt early increasing to 25 kt...then diminishing to 
15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-070430-
Marmot Bay-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-070430-
Shelikof Strait-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-070430-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-070430-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-070430-
Kachemak Bay-
631 AM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the 
afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft

$$

900 
FZAK51 PAFC 070035
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-071400-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 986 mb Alaska Peninsula low moves into western Prince William
Sound at 1010 mb Wed afternoon. It sweeps a weak front across the
Gulf to the north Gulf coast by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ119-071400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ120-071400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-071400-
Resurrection Bay-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-071400-
Prince William Sound-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-071400-
Port Valdez-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
snow showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-071400-
Valdez Narrows-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-071400-
Valdez Arm-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-071400-
Passage Canal-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-071400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-071400-
Barren Islands East-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-071400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-071400-
Chiniak Bay-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-071400-
Marmot Bay-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-071400-
Shelikof Strait-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-071400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-071400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2
ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-071400-
Kachemak Bay-
335 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 PM AKST Sun Feb 5 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The pattern remains amplified across the North Pacific. An upper
level low currently extends across the Bering Sea and is slowly
moving eastward. An upper level ridge extends across the west
coast of Canada. Closer to the surface, radar and observations
shows snow moving across the Kenai Peninsula and a mix of rain and
snow in Prince William Sound. Observations show rain and
temperatures in the mid to upper 30sF across Kodiak Island.
Observations show snow across Bristol Bay and snow showers across
the Kuskokwim Delta.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance is in good agreement with the placement and intensity of
synoptic scale features. The biggest challenge continues to be
resolving small mesoscale local effects. Forecast confidence
overall is above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Vicinity snow
showers will continue through 06th/14z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Sunday night through Wednesday night)...

A strong low is pushing over the northern half of Kodiak Island
this evening. This low has been producing storm force winds with
gusts to 65 knots observed near Augustine Island. Elevated winds
are expected to continue around the low through the evening hours
and also in association with a front overspreading the Kenai
Peninsula. Winds should diminish by or just after midnight as the
front and associated low finally begin to weaken. Onshore of the
coast, the combination of snow and gusty winds is contributing to
poor visibility through Portage Valley and Turnagain Pass.
Afternoon observations have shown visibility down to less than one
half mile at times and a winter weather advisory for blowing snow
remains in effect through 9pm this evening from Portage Valley to
Turnagain Pass. While winds are expected to taper off through
tonight, poor visibility from snow and blowing snow may persist
through the morning hours. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
inches remain forecast for the advisory area with local amounts as
high as 20 inches possible near the Whittier Tunnel. Elsewhere,
blustery conditions are also ongoing across Thompson Pass.
Forecast models continue to trend upward with snow amounts for
Thompson Pass, which could see a foot of snow through tomorrow,
especially for northern Thompson Pass. Hazardous travel conditions
will be present through the overnight hours with slick roads and
reduced visibility expected.

On Monday snow will finally return to the Anchorage Bowl and
Mat-Su as a strong southeasterly flow over the Chugach Mountains
finally weakens and allow some moisture to reach the surface.
Snow is forecast to increase in coverage across the Anchorage Bowl
during the morning hours, potentially during the morning commute,
before peaking by midday. Modest snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are forecast, though some locations, especially on the Hillside,
could see higher amounts closer to 3 inches through Monday
afternoon.

Through the rest of the week transient high pressure is expected
to materialize over Southcentral, which should lead to drier
conditions inland of the coast, with a gradual cooling trend
through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The primary weather maker today is a strong low currently north
of Kodiak Island that is spreading snow over the Aleutian Range
and into Bristol Bay. Gusty northerly winds in response to the low
have resulted in blowing snow in the low lying areas of Bristol
Bay, which should come to an end by 7pm when the winds relax.
Influence from this low will abate tomorrow, but a quasi-
stationary upper level low will keep some areas from Bristol Bay
north into the Kuskokwim Valley in light snow through Tuesday.
Expect temperatures to gradually fall over the coming days as cold
air continues to stream in from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Broad northerly winds and brief, but heavy snow showers will
linger across the Bering and Chain through Monday evening as a
complex low with multiple centers weakens and moves east.
Starting Monday night a series of compact, yet moderately strong
lows will move across the chain, bringing localized areas of gales
and rain/snow showers. Over the water, areas of extreme freezing
spray are possible near the ice edge from Cape Newenham to near
St. Matthew Island. Expect temperatures to remain near freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Confidence continues to remain high on both domains remaining
rather active with no real sustained quiet stretches with high
pressure firmly in control, but rather transient ridges between
systems; the only exception might be coastal southwest Alaska.
Southern Alaska still remains under the influence of a broad
negatively trough. Expect more  precipitation for the eastern
Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, the northern Gulf Coast, as
well as interior southwest Alaska. The western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, Mat-Su Valleys, and Copper River Basin could also see
precipitation chances during the first half of the longterm as
well, but uncertainty exists with potential cross barrier flow
issues. The models converge on the idea of a return to unsettled
weather as a deep Bering Sea low sends multiple fronts and
shortwaves eastward into the coast through at least Saturday. By
Sunday, there is a lot of model divergence at the surface, but the
consensus is that the longwave trough will continue to influence
the region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
LONG TERM...PJS