Storm Warning 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

751 
FZAK62 PAFC 271228
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-280215-
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front extending from the Western Aleutians to the Pribilof
Islands this moring will push north and strengthen through the
day. It's parent low over Shemya at 977 mb will deepen to 957 mb
at 59N 175W Tuesday morning. The low will then move into the
Bering Strait at 965 mb Wednesday morning.

$$

PKZ411-280215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ412-280215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 28 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 17 to 30 ft. Snow and rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ413-280215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 23 to
32 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-280215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

782 
FZAK62 PAFC 280045
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-281415-
345 PM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front extending from the Central and Eastern Aleutians to the 
Pribilof Islands this afternoon will push north to the Southwest 
coast through Tuesday morning. Its 962 mb parent low at 56N 177E 
tracks to St. Matthew Island at 957 mb on Tuesday morning. The low
will then move to Norton Sound at 960 mb Wednesday morning before
dissipating there Wednesday afternoon. A front tracks across the 
Western Aleutians Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
345 PM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
345 PM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 28 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 17 to 30 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
345 PM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 23 to
32 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
345 PM AKST Mon Feb 27 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.

$$

668 
FZAK62 PAFC 281234
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-010215-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low at 60N 176W will move to 62N 165W Wednesday morning.
The low will move inland and dissipate Wednesday afternoon. A low
near the Kamchatka Peninsula Wednesday morning will move east to
57N 177W at 994 mb Thursday morning.

$$

PKZ411-010215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-010215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray N of 58N. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 58N.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-010215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-010215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 AM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing
spray N of 57N. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing spray N
of 57N. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

984 
FZAK62 PAFC 010058
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 PM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011400-
358 PM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low at 60N 176W will move to 62N 165W Wednesday morning.
The low will move inland and dissipate Wednesday afternoon. A low
near the Kamchatka Peninsula Wednesday morning will move east to
57N 177W at 994 mb Thursday morning and then exit the eastern
Bering across the Alaska Peninsula at 1002 mb by Thursday
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-011400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 PM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 PM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 PM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 PM AKST Tue Feb 28 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing
spray N of 57N. Widespread snow showers.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing spray N
of 57N. Widespread snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 AM AKST Sun Feb 26 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A low amplitude ridge exists from the Western Bering to the
Western Gulf with the core of the estimated 150+ kt jet spreading
from Shemya to the Alaska Peninsula. This ridging, northwest flow
and subsequent drying off the Alaska Range has lead to a very dry
airmass over Southcentral. As such, temperatures have dropped
significantly overnight for most areas underneath clear skies and
light winds. However, pockets of fog and low stratus have also
developed from Trapper Creek south into the Anchorage Bowl and
Knik Arm area. Gap winds continue through Seward, Whittier and
Valdez.

Out west, a shortwave trough riding over the ridge has produced
some light snow from the Kuskokwim Delta to southern Bristol Bay.
A warm front also extends from the Western Aleutians to Unalaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall model agreement is moderate in the immediate short term
but begins to diverge Monday as a strong system moves into the
Western Bering. There's significant differences in the shape,
meso-low development and depth of the low as it goes through the
occlusion process over the Western to Central Bering through
Tuesday. The other difference of note is the thermodynamic profile
over the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday, with the two American models
moving +0C air over the area at 850mb and the foreign models
keeping it much cooler with the occlusion farther to the south.
Winds moving through the terrain would likely make for rain from
King Salmon south regardless, but this still creates some
uncertainty in the forecast for that area. Models then converge
back to a general consensus on the development of a low at the
triple point near the Barren Islands, but significant timing
differences remain which will impact the snow forecast for
Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog and low stratus have developed in the Susitna Valley
and along the Knik Arm. Currently the stratus is confined to east
and north of the Terminal, but it may move back in over the
terminal and lower to fog later in the morning. IFR conditions
would likely develop should this occur. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Sunday through Tuesday night)...

Gusty gap winds along the Southcentral coast will continue today
due the strong pressure gradient between a building ridge over
the interior and a trough over the northern and eastern Gulf of
Alaska. A weak shortwave moving across Southcentral this morning,
embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft, will act to reinforce
the cold air advection and allow for a secondary peak of the gusty
winds through favored gap locations. These winds will finally begin
to subside Monday afternoon as the trough moves inland over
northern Canada and an upper-level ridge builds from the west.

With the current pattern in place, expect below normal
temperatures to continue across the region through Tuesday
morning. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear through the
next couple of days, as well. The exception to this will be areas
of stratus and fog lingering from Cook Inlet to the Mat-Su
Valleys and across portions of the Copper River Basin this
morning.

Attention then turns to a large area of low pressure developing
over the Bering Sea Monday pushing an occluded front over
Southwest Alaska for Tuesday. This front will bring snow,
transitioning to rain, for Kodiak Island Tuesday before lifting
toward the northern Gulf. As it moves north, a new surface low is
expected to spin up near the Barren Islands. This new area of low
pressure, along with the residual front, will bring widespread
snow to Southcentral, first to the Kenai Peninsula and Susitna
Valley for Tuesday morning, spreading east to Cordova, Valdez, and
the Copper river Basin by Tuesday afternoon. As the low slowly
moves parallel to the eastern Kenai coast, its attendant front
will move toward Prince William Sound. Strong easterly winds will
overspread the coastal waters, eventually working through favored
gaps across the Kenai Peninsula. The strong winds and snow will
combine to produce blowing snow for Whittier, Portage Valley, and
Turnagain Pass Tuesday afternoon and evening before the low moves
east and the winds begin to shift. Snow will continue for most
locations through Wednesday before tapering off from west to east
late Wednesday into early Thursday as the low moves to the Alaska
Panhandle. Gusty westerly winds in the wake of the low could
result in another round of blowing snow for the aforementioned
locations as well and Valdez and Thompson Pass for Wednesday into
Thursday.

The highest accumulations are expected across the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, especially at elevation and through Portage Valley,
Turnagain Pass, and Whittier. Significant accumulations are also
possible for the western Kenai Peninsula, across portions of the
Susitna Valley, and around Cordova. Several inches of snow are
also possible for Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley; however, an
initially strong cross-barrier flow could limit the amount of
moisture spilling over the mountains for a time on Tuesday. Once
the low moves east of Seward, however, snow is expected to fill in
for these locations. The amount of snow for Anchorage to Palmer
will likely be highly dependent on the track of the low and the
location of any deformation band.

While there is high confidence for widespread snow, there is
still some uncertainty in the track of the low, and, hence,
snowfall amounts for many locations across the region. Stay tuned
to future forecasts as we continue to monitor the situation and
refine the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

Two areas of snow showers are noted on radar this morning across
Southwest Alaska. The first is occurring over the Kuskokwim Delta
and in conjunction with the passage of a shortwave trough quickly
pushing eastward into the Kuskokwim Mountains. Visibility in
Bethel is less than six miles with lowered ceilings to around 2000
feet. This axis of snow will taper of from west to east through
the rest of the morning hours. The second area of snow is
occurring further south and across portions of Bristol Bay where
the remnants of an occluded low are slowly moving southeastward.
Like Bethel, the town of Dillingham is also experiencing reduced
visibility and lowered ceilings. Both areas should see snow
gradually come to an end over the next few hours. Behind the snow
a colder air mass remains forecast to filter southward into all of
Southwest through Monday with morning lows in the single digits
and lower across Bristol Bay. Meanwhile, much of the Kuskokwim
Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley are expected to cool to below
zero degrees through Monday morning.

Temperatures will begin to rebound Monday into Tuesday as the
next Bering front begins to slide into Southwest. A winter weather
advisory is in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Monday evening
through Tuesday morning. Increasing winds associated with the
front and 4 to 8 inches of snow will impact coastal areas with
blowing snow and reduced visibilities down to one half mile.
Continued warming through Tuesday morning will eventually see snow
transition to rain, and the threat for blowing snow and reduced
visibility will come to an end. Areas expected to experience the
strongest winds and the greatest likelihood for blowing snow and
reduced visibility will stretch from Mekoryuk to Toksook Bay to
Kipnuk.

Precipitation associated with the front then spreads south and
west throughout the day on Tuesday as the front moves further
inland. Snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible for the
Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay. There is some
uncertainty in the precipitation type forecast for the Alaska
Peninsula south of King Salmon, with warmer air aloft and
southerly gap winds producing rain or mixed precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

The next Bering low is already bringing a warm front across the
Aleutians this morning. Temperatures are above freezing from
Shemya to Sand Point. As such, showery conditions will be
prevalent across much of the region through Monday. The Pribilof
Islands will remain north of the warmer air until Monday morning.
A winter weather advisory is in effect for snow and blowing snow
from 9AM Sunday through 9AM Monday. Thereafter, the warm front
will lift north of the Pribilofs and bring their temperatures to
above freezing as well. For the rest of Monday and into Tuesday
the Bering low is expected to deepen further while lifting into
the Chukchi Sea. Gale to storm force winds are likely over the
Western Aleutians late Monday with enhanced winds approaching the
Pribilof Islands by Monday night. Additionally, as the low lifts
northward, cold air on the backside of the low will wrap eastward
and across the Western Aleutians beginning as early as Monday
morning. Colder air will then filter eastward through the rest of
the Aleutian Chain through Tuesday. Widespread snow showers may
develop across the entire Aleutian Chain by late Tuesday as a
Kamchatka low tracks just north and along the Western and Central
Aleutians into Tuesday night. However, much more uncertainty
exists with the evolution of the Bering low and the potential
Kamchatka low on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The defining synoptic feature by Wednesday morning is a low
situated about coastal Western Alaska, with another low formed at
the triple-point of the former in the western Gulf of Alaska. The
shape and placement of both the parental low and the triple-point
low are not well agreed upon by the deterministic models, however
discrepancies have diminished since yesterday's model runs.
Wednesday morning, the 12Z Canadian and Euro models have the low
center over coastal Southwest Alaska, with multiple defined
troughs producing higher winds along the AKPen and producing the
aforementioned triple-point low in the western Gulf. Wednesday
morning on the 12Z GFS, the low is still offshore from Southwest
Alaska, with less defined frontal boundaries, suggesting less
intense winds along the AKPen and the triple point low has yet to
spin up. However, Wednesday morning represented by the 12Z GFS
appears to bring a widespread potentially heavy precipitation,
likely snowfall, event across Southcentral and Southwest. Impacts
to population centers such as Anchorage is difficult to determine
currently however, downslope flow will likely play a part in
mitigating snowfall for the Anchorage Bowl. This precipitation
wave is not advertised to be as intense by the Canadian and Euro
models, so we will need to wait to obtain a better idea once the
models converge on a solution. By Wednesday afternoon, the GFS and
Canadian runs come much more in-line, consolidating the trough to
the low in the Gulf and producing strong westerly and offshore
winds as the low moved east of Prince William Sound.

Precipitation will diminish across Southcentral by Friday and into
the start of the weekend. Transient showers look to linger in
Southwest Alaska Thursday and Friday with a weak wave to move in
Saturday morning. A resurgence of gusty winds out of the southern
gaps and passes of the Eastern Aleutians, AKPen, and near the Barren
Island Friday. Out in the Bering, a gale force low entering the
Western Aleutians will support the potential for Storm-force
gusts, and mild precipitation as it tracks into the Central
Aleutians Thursday afternoon, before dipping out to the south,
creating the aforementioned resurgence of winds on Friday. By
Friday afternoon, a new low appears to enter the Western Bering
bringing a sweeping front into the Western Aleutians. By Saturday
morning, this sweeping front looks to possibly merge with a North
Pacific low approaching the Central Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 155 195.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 119 121 26-130 139 141 160 412 413
180 181 185
STORM WARNING 177 178
GALE WARNING 130 131 175 176 179-181 185 411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CJ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
LONG TERM...CL