Storm Warning 171, NWS Anchorage, AK

620 
FZAK51 PAFC 221144
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-230015-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 mb low near the Barren Islands moves inland by Fri 
afternoon. A 966 mb low approaches Kodiak Friday evening and the 
associated front will push into the Gulf. The low will deepen to 
964 mb and move to 20 nm south of Seward by Sunday morning.


$$

PKZ710-230015-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ711-230015-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 55 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft
building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ712-230015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 55 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft
building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ715-230015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft.
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ716-230015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ714-230015-
Resurrection Bay-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ724-230015-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-230015-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ726-230015-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-230015-
Port of Valdez-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-230015-
Valdez Narrows-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers
and
rain.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-230015-
Valdez Arm-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ723-230015-
Passage Canal-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-230015-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray and patchy
freezing fog. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Rain and
snow.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ731-230015-
Barren Islands East-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ733-230015-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ732-230015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. N of
Dangerous Cape, E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight.
Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ734-230015-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ736-230015-
Chiniak Bay-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ737-230015-
Marmot Bay-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-230015-
Shelikof Strait-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and light freezing rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ742-230015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray and patchy
freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ740-230015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Freezing spray and patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ741-230015-
Kachemak Bay-
244 AM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

901 
FZAK51 PAFC 222357
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-231300-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 966 mb low 330 nm south of Kodiak City and an associated front 
will push into the Gulf through Saturday. The low will deepen to 
958 mb and move to 20 nm south of Seward by early Sunday morning.

$$

PKZ710-231300-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.SAT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ711-231300-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 55 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ712-231300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 55 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ715-231300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ716-231300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ714-231300-
Resurrection Bay-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ724-231300-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-231300-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ726-231300-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-231300-
Port of Valdez-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-231300-
Valdez Narrows-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE wind 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-231300-
Valdez Arm-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ723-231300-
Passage Canal-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-231300-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ731-231300-
Barren Islands East-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ733-231300-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ732-231300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. N of
Dangerous Cape, E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ734-231300-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ736-231300-
Chiniak Bay-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ737-231300-
Marmot Bay-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ738-231300-
Shelikof Strait-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ742-231300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ740-231300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ741-231300-
Kachemak Bay-
257 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. In the
outer bay, NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the
afternoon. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt except N 25 kt in the outer bay. Seas
4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
548 AM AKST Thu Dec 21 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Saturday night)...

Quieter weather will prevail the next couple of days before a
major storm system brings strong winds and heavy precipitation to
coastal areas beginning Friday night and likely continuing through
the weekend. First off, a long-wave trough is now centered over
mainland Alaska, the Gulf of Alaska, southward into the northeast
Pacific. A vertically stacked low is spinning just east of Middleton
Island, with light precipitation spreading onshore from the
Cordova area northward into the Copper River Basin. Gusty gap
winds have developed on the back side of the low, namely for
Seward/Resurrection Bay and Whittier/Passage Canal. Snow has
backed as far west as Whittier and is being blown around by 45 mph
wind gusts, leading to low visibilities. However, this should be
very short-lived as the precipitation shield shifts eastward this
morning. The eastward progression of the long-wave trough will
push this low onshore just east of Cordova this afternoon, with
light snow spreading northward across much of the Copper River
Basin. Precipitation will then diminish tonight through Friday
morning as the trough exits to the northeast. The rest of
Southcentral will remain dry. Areas of low clouds extend from the
Matanuska Valley southward to the western Kenai Peninsula, caught
below a subsidence inversion (as seen in the 12Z Anchorage
sounding). While there may be some improvement during the day as
cooler/drier air advects in from the northwest, expect the
inversion to hold and thus maintain areas of low clouds in the
region.

All attention will then shift to a deep low tracking south of the
Aleutian chain today. Short-waves will dig down the back side of
this low into the North Pacific as the low passes south of the
Alaska Peninsula on Friday. This will lead to rapid amplification
of the upper level flow and force the storm system to begin to
lift northward toward southern Alaska. Model guidance has been
quite consistent and is in good agreement with the evolution of
this system Friday through Friday night, so forecast confidence is
fairly high. With the latest forecast updates this morning, have
trended stronger with winds and increased precipitation amounts.
Kodiak Island will start as snow Friday morning, but expect a
fairly quick transition to rain Friday afternoon.

Snow showers will develop well out ahead of the front across the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound Friday as an
upper short-wave rounds the low center and tracks quickly
northward. Steadier and heavier precipitation will then Friday
night into saturday morning. Strong easterly low level flow will
lead to the heaviest precipitation in upslope flow across western
Prince William Sound and inland to the Seward Highway corridor of
the eastern Kenai Peninsula. This same flow will lead to much
lighter precipitation initially for the Cordova/Valdez areas
while downslope flow will lead to dry conditions for most of the
western Kenai Peninsula northward to Anchorage and the Mat-Su.
Marginally warmer air will arrive with the front sometime late
Friday night or early Saturday, leading to a transition to rain
for areas near sea level along the coast, with a mix of rain and
snow likely spreading inland across the eastern Kenai Peninsula.

Impacts across the coastal waters will be significant, with
widespread gale to storm force winds and seas on the order of
15 to 20 feet for all except the inner waters. The front will move
through quickly, so the worst conditions won't last all that long.

Forecast confidence takes a precipitous Saturday and beyond.
The GFS was the first model to pick up on a new low forming over
the northeast Pacific as a short-wave ejects out of the highly
amplified long-wave trough - and tracking this low northward into
the eastern Gulf and then northwestward toward Southcentral as the
trough takes on a negative tilt. All of the model guidance now has
some indication of a new low, but timing/depth/track vary
significantly. This will have huge ramifications on the forecast
because the presence of such a low has good potential to bring
even stronger winds and heavier precipitation to wherever is in
its path. The low will also affect the evolution of other
features, including whether the initial front pushes onshore of
Southcentral Saturday or stalls along the coast. This in turn
affects how much warm air moves into Southcentral and the
resultant precipitation type as well as whether precipitation
spreads inland beyond the coastal mountains. Stay tuned as there
winter weather and travel disruptions are likely to impact much
of Southcentral this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

Several major updates have been made to the forecast overnight.
Overall, the low currently moving towards the Western and Central
Aleutians is expected to remain a bit further south, increasing
confidence that precipitation for the Eastern Aleutians will
remain all snow. Winds have also increased with this system,
leading to expanded/extended gale and storm warnings for the
marine forecast areas, as well as increasing confidence in the
likelihood of extreme freezing spray as we head into the weekend.
Three new warnings/advisories are currently in effect:

* Winter Weather Advisory for Eastern Aleutian Islands: Snow and
  blowing snow expected beginning noon today.

* Blizzard Warning for the Bering Sea coast of the Alaska
  Peninsula from Friday morning through Saturday

* Blizzard Warning for the Bristol Bay coast from Friday afternoon
  through Saturday afternoon

Onto the details: Fog and lingering areas of snow, rain/snow
showers are all that remain of the broad low that has been
influencing weather across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and
the Aleutian Islands these past few days. The next weathermaker, a
~965 mb low, can be seen on satellite as it makes its way towards
the Western and Central Aleutians. Precipitable water values as
high as 1 to 1.25 inches accompany its front, hinting at the
moisture this system will bring to Alaska. As mentioned in the
summary above, the latest model runs have been showing a slightly
stronger low with a track that's slightly further south. These
seemingly minor differences have led to quite a few changes with
the forecast.

The biggest impact has been to the Eastern Aleutians, where a
Winter Weather Advisory is currently in effect. With the low and
its attendant warm air remaining further south, there is
increasing confidence that precipitation will stay all snow for
the Eastern Aleutians. This brings the potential for higher snow
amounts, as well as reduced visibility in blowing snow. Because
temperatures will be right around the freezing point, there is
quite a bit of uncertainty with snow amounts and how far
visibility will drop. Current thinking is that strong winds will
lead to significant visibility reductions in blowing snow,
especially at elevation. As for snow amounts, the current forecast
is actually on the lower end when it comes to what operational
models are putting out. We're leaning on lower snow amounts
because sea surface temperatures are quite warm (around 5 degrees
Celsius), and this marine influence will likely lead to denser
snow and lower amounts. As for the Central Aleutians, temperatures
climbing into the mid 30s suggest that snow amounts will be much
lower, with little reduction in visibility due to blowing snow.

Shifting to where the Blizzard Warnings are in effect along the
Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay coasts: this is mostly in line
with forecast trends from yesterday. Confidence is highest in the
winds, which will be strengthened by: (1) a tightening pressure
gradient as the low center tracks south of the Alaska Peninsula,
(2) strong cold air advection around the backside of the low, and
(3) a robust upper level shortwave moving south towards the Alaska
Peninsula. The limiting factor for this set-up will be snow.
Models continue to show differences with where the deformation
(snow) band will set up in Southwest Alaska. If snow ends earlier,
conditions could improve earlier than what's currently in the
forecast. Stay tuned as we update the forecast, and be sure to
stay weather-aware when planning potential holiday travel late
this week into the weekend.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A broad upper level longwave trough extends across most of the
Bering into Western Alaska through the period. A number of
shortwaves rotate through the pattern and distort the trough
through midweek. Most of the active weather will be occurring over
the Gulf of Alaska with areas of precipitation, locally heavy
across coastal Southcentral Alaska. Precipitation starts from the
Southern end of the Eastern Kenai Peninsula across Prince William
Sound into the Copper River Valley. Locally heavy snow or mixed
rain, with rain along the coast. Snow should occur further inland.
While there is some risk of downslope drying, the troughs and
weak fronts pushing over the Southcentral portions of the state
may have some warm air aloft and bring local areas of freezing
precipitation Sunday, ending Christmas Day. A second front moving
into the coastal zones repeat the cycle Tuesday into Wednesday.
Gusty winds up to gale force are on tap for the marine areas
through the entire forecast period.

Most of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain will be within the
broad trough through the long-term period. Unsettled conditions
are expected throughout the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain through
Wednesday. However, precipitation should be more showery in
nature. Where the uncertainty here is exactly where North Pacific
lows track before they enter the Gulf. Depending on how far north
of south they track in proximity to the Aleutian Chain and Alaska
Peninsula will determine if the Aleutians could see enhanced
precipitation from fronts or if they remain showery. As for
Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN, precipitation from two fronts
lifting into the Gulf Sunday and Tuesday especially for the AKPEN.
Conditions look to remain showery for Monday as northwest flow
kicks in along with cold air advection behind the fronts.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Reduced ceilings are expected early this morning. On
satellite imagery there is an area of fog and low stratus near
PANC. Wind over the terminal to remain fairly light and out of
the north. Amendments will be made as needed.

&&