Storm Warning 161, NWS Anchorage, AK

367 
FZAK52 PAFC 061241
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-070115-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A series of fronts move across the Bering through Thu afternoon. 
High pressure moves over the Western Bering by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-070115-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts up to 50 kt out of bays and passes
diminishing by this afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers and widespread rain 
showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ751-070115-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers and widespread rain
showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ752-070115-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ753-070115-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ754-070115-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-070115-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ756-070115-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ757-070115-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ758-070115-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ759-070115-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ770-070115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ772-070115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ771-070115-
Unalaska Bay-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ773-070115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ774-070115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ775-070115-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ776-070115-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ777-070115-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ778-070115-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ780-070115-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ781-070115-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ782-070115-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ783-070115-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ784-070115-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ785-070115-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ786-070115-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ787-070115-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ766-070115-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ760-070115-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ761-070115-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ762-070115-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-070115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 5ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ764-070115-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ765-070115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ767-070115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
341 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A gale force low in the Southern Gulf of Alaska will continue to
slowly drudge northward today, tonight and Wednesday with the
latest ECMWF, Canadian and NAM model consensus of a 983 mb low
tracking slowly north to be located around 45 nm southeast of
Middleton Island Wednesday morning. The GFS has a low of similar
strength but tracking further to the west and slower than the
other models. Model tracks become more divergent into Thursday
with the ECMWF, Canadian and NAM consensus track moving the low into
the Copper River Delta to the east of Cordova Wednesday evening
while the GFS tracks the low northwest into the Eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound and dissipating
Thursday afternoon. Based upon current low track and model
performance we preferred the faster, slightly weaker and further
east track of the ECMWF, Canadian, and NAM as well as sever other
high resolution models over the GFS which seems to be an outlier
solution at this point.

The faster, weaker and further east track will manifest itself
with a shorter initial precipitation period, with lesser snowfall
totals especially on the western edge of the storm over Cook
Inlet, the Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and the MatSu
valley with the first round of snow as the low moves north and
makes landfall along the coast near the Copper River Delta, but
may produce more snow on the back side of the low as it moves
north into the Copper River Basin and cold west to northwest flow
produces upslope flow along the Chugach Front Range over the
Western Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Hillside and Eagle River as
well as the Talkeetna Mountains and the MatSu valleys. Snowfall
totals through Wednesday afternoon range from 1 to 6 inches
depending on the track of the storm. Higher amounts will be
possible in the southern Copper River Basin & Thompson Pass, where
more moisture is wrung out over the coastal mountains. Blowing
snow is expected to be an additional hazard for Thompson Pass as
cold air continues to filter out through gaps, leading to
continued sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph. Small changes in the
track of this storm will produce large differences in the timing,
and location of the heaviest snowfall.

By Wednesday, the low moves into the northeastern Gulf, drawing
cold air across the Western Alaska Range. This cold air advection
is likely to enhance gap winds in the western Gulf to storm
force, with gusts in excess of 65 knots (75 mph). Precipitation
will begin to diminish Wednesday evening in Prince William Sound
and surrounding mountains, but upslope snow showers will likely
linger along the Front Range of the Chugach and Talkeetna
mountains including the Anchorage area and the MatSu Valleys into
Thursday as a broad low with a strong upper-level component tracks
into Western Alaska. Its cold front brings potential for another
round of snow to Southcentral as it sweeps eastward out over the
Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

-Elevated sustained winds and wind gusts expected across much of
 SW Alaska & the Bering through Wednesday afternoon, with gusts up
 to 65mph possible along the Alaska Peninsula.

-A developing Kamchatka low will bring increased precipitation
 chances to SW AK through the central Aleutians by tomorrow
 night.

Discussion:

No major changes to the forecast at this time as much of the AOR
currently remains under mostly zonal flow with weak ridging aloft.
In tandem with a low pressure within the GoA, anticipating
another day of elevated & gusty winds to traverse across the
Alaska Peninsula, with sustained winds around 40mph and isolated
gusts up to 60-65mph possible through gap-wind areas like King
Cove, Sand Point and Chignik. Good news, these winds will slowly
weaken through Wednesday afternoon as the pressure & temperature
gradient relaxes with the Gulf low opening & sliding eastward
towards Prince William Sound.

Out west over the Bering, expecting cooler temperatures and
intermittent snow showers to persist through the forecast period under
predominate W/NW-ly flow, aided by a developing and compact
Kamchatka low. This Kamchatka low will gradually deepen and shift
SE towards St. Lawrence Island through Wednesday and eventually
over mainland AK by Thursday. This low will send another shot of
reinforcing cold air and lead to heavier snow/snow showers for
the Bering and western coastlines of the Mainland and AKPen to
round out the short term forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...Friday through Monday...

The longwave trough over the eastern Bering and western Alaska,
meanders and drifts southeastward into the Gulf of Alaska with a
surface low heading toward the eastern Gulf of Alaska. There is
low confidence for the weekend period with the location of the
surface and where the heaviest precipitation will be, but
expecting an active pattern ahead for eastern Alaska. High
pressure ridging continues indicate amplification for the western
Bering Sea that encourages cool, northerly flow across the Bering
Sea. Snow showers can be expected under the northerly flow,
especially for the central and east Bering. A closed low forms
over Southern Mainland, and drifts to the East through the
weekend.

A North Pacific low with more available moisture and winds
approaching gale force will lift northward toward the Aleutians,
but looks to drift east toward the Gulf before reaching the
Islands. Bands of precipitation would still be reinforced and
would like keep precipitation going, locally heavier at time along
the Aleutians. Another surface low appears to develop and south
of the Alaska Peninsula and tracks into the western Gulf. At this
time, potentially heavy precipitation (10 percent exceedance of 2
inches in 24 hours) to the northern Gulf coast early next week is
possible. There is still low confidence with the position of the
low this far out in time, but is a feature worth tracking over the
next few days.

rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Mostly VFR conditions through this afternoon, although
cloud ceilings at or below 5000' are expected to continue this
morning. A wintry mix will continue this morning followed by a
brief break in the afternoon. Later this evening, snow chances
return and conditions will drop to MVFR or lower at times.

&&