Storm Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

136 
FZAK62 PAFC 090041
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091415-
341 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1002 mb low at 51N 172W continues to weaken before dissipating 
later tonight over the Eastern Aleutians. A 970 mb N Pacific low 
moves to near 50N 174W while deepening to 956 mb by Thu afternoon.
It then moves to 55N 161W at 967 mb Fri afternoon.


$$

PKZ411-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 to 40 kt becoming NE 40 to 50 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 PM AKST Wed Feb 8 2023

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Heavy freezing
spray N of 57N. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

522 
FZAK62 PAFC 091304
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 AM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100200-
404 AM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 955 mb North Pacific low at 51N 174W Thu afternoon moves to 55N
161W at 970 mb Fri afternoon. The low will weaken to 980 mb and 
move inland near Bristol Bay Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
404 AM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray N of 57N.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 56N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
404 AM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
404 AM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 40 kt becoming NE 40 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft building to 16 to 22 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
404 AM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Extreme freezing 
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on
vessels near the ice edge. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 13 to
21 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater 
may rapidly accumulate on vessels near the ice edge. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

535 
FZAK62 PAFC 100045
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-101400-
345 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 mb low near 51N 174W moves to 56N 162W at 970 mb Fri 
afternoon. It continues to weaken while moving inland of Bristol 
Bay Sat morning. A new low develops near 50N 179E at 995 mb Sat 
evening.

$$

PKZ411-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
345 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray N of 57N.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray 
N of 57N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
345 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming N 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
345 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 31 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 17 to 28 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
345 PM AKST Thu Feb 9 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Extreme freezing 
spray N of 57N at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels near the ice edge. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 13 to
21 ft. Extreme freezing spray N of 57N at a rate of 4 cm per hour or
greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels near the ice edge. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Extreme freezing spray N of 57N at a rate
of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels near 
the ice edge.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

811 
FZAK62 PAFC 101207
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
307 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110200-
307 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low near Nikolski moves along the Aleutian Chain. It
exits into Southwest Alaska near King Salmon at 985 mb by Sat 
morning. A 993 mb low develops at 52N 172E and moves to 51N 167E
at 1003 mb by Sun morning. A 984 mb low at 51N 159W Sat morning 
moves into the Western Gulf by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
307 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of
56N.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of
57N.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray N
of 57N.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
307 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 
cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels near the ice
edge.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
307 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 32 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
307 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming N 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 
cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels N of 58N. 
Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Extreme freezing
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate 
on vessels N of 58N.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Extreme freezing
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate 
on vessels N of 58N.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

842 
FZAK62 PAFC 102359
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
259 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111415-
259 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 972 mb low near 55N 161W moves into Southwest Alaska through 
Sat morning. A newly developed 996 mb low near 52N 171E Fri 
evening gets absorbed into a 964 mb N Pacific low near 46N 176E 
by Sun afternoon. Its front lifts into the Western and Central 
Aleutians Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-111415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
259 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
259 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray 
N of 57N. Snow showers.
.SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
259 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
259 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Extreme freezing 
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on
vessels N of 58N.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Extreme freezing spray 
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels N of 58N.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Extreme freezing 
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on
vessels N of 58N.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKST Tue Feb 7 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level trough stretches across the Bering and into
the Gulf with the Jet Stream running south of the Aleutians in a
zonal pattern towards the northwestern US. Several shortwaves and
weak surface lows are moving across the Bering with showers near
the Pribilofs. A stronger low is beginning to move near the
western Aleutians which will bring an increase in winds this
afternoon. Across the Gulf cold air aloft is supporting
convective showers with a surface low southeast of the Kenai
Peninsula with snow showers extending across the Peninsula.
Another shortwave is producing bands of snow showers across
eastern Prince William Sound with moderate to heavy snow showers
embedded in these bands. Farther inland relatively quiet weather
for Anchorage and the Mat-Su valleys with light snow across the
Copper River Basin. However, radar is showing snow showers
beginning to push northward towards Anchorage and the Susitna
valley.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance is in good agreement with several shortwaves moving
across the Gulf and Southcentral. The main forecast challenge here
will be snow amounts across Anchorage and parts of the Matanuska
valley as low pressure may linger across Prince William Sound
which could bring higher snow totals to the area. Out west models
are in good agreement with a storm force low moving near the
Aleutian Chain Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with light winds will persist through
midday. Snow returns after 00z with ceiling/visibility between
MVFR to IFR. Snow accumulations through tomorrow are expected to
be between 2 and 4 inches with the possibility of snow rates
nearing an inch an hour in the strongest bands of snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

At 500 mb there is a negatively tilt trough extending from Cook
Inlet to the Gulf of Alaska. Multiple shortwaves will continue
propagate across southcentral Alaska. These weak disturbances
aloft are producing pockets of snow that will continue into the
night. Bands of snow will move over Anchorage through Thompson
Pass/Valdez/Cordova. Looking at model data and satellite imagery,
the moisture advection component is relatively weak across the
region. The trough is then expected to linger over the area
before lifting north late Wednesday evening. Anticipate 1 to 4
inches of new snow at lower elevations, with locally higher
amounts possible in favored upslope areas, such as the coastal
mountains, Anchorage Hillside, areas from Palmer north and east.
Thursday will be dry but the temperatures will plunge. Expect low
temperatures ranging from single digits to subzero from Anchorage
to the Mat-Su Valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Friday)...

A cold but quiescent pattern will continue for the breadth of
Southwest over the next several days, until another pattern shift
begins towards the end of the week. While chances for accumulating
snow will remain rather low overall, a couple weak shortwaves will
rotate onshore from the Bering around an upper trough anchored
near the Y-K delta through Thursday morning. Snow showers will be
possible as these weak waves move onshore, mainly between Bristol
Bay and parts of the Kuskokwim Delta. Otherwise, little activity
is expected across the majority of Southwest through Thursday
night, with bitterly cold lows each night dipping well below 0
Fahrenheit, especially across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and
Kuskokwim Delta.

By Friday morning, the initial effects will begin to be felt from
a front extending out ahead of a storm force low following along
the Aleutian Chain. Gusty offshore, easterly winds will pick up
along with increasing cloud cover throughout the day on Friday as
the front moves up the Alaska Peninsula towards Bristol Bay.
Chances for steady, light snowfall will increase for areas
favoring upslope enhancement with strong east to southeast flow
ahead of the boundary, namely over and immediately east of the
Kuskokwim Mountains. The best chance for perhaps an inch or two
of new snowfall through Friday night will be near the Dillingham
and Aleknagik area, with areas of blowing snow also possible in
this vicinity as easterly winds ahead of the approaching low
continue through Friday evening. Warm advection with the
increasing southeasterly flow should also push much of the region
out of the deep freeze, with highs moving back towards the 10s
and 20s on Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

A myriad of small, weak lows periodically spinning up and
dissipating will continue to affect portions of the Aleutian Chain
and Pribilofs through Wednesday night as a broad, disorganized
trough continues to drift across the Bering Sea. Predominant winds
will generally stay in small craft range or lower through
Wednesday, however stronger winds will be possible for very
localized areas near the more potent mesoscale lows spinning up
along dynamically unstable boundaries (including those currently
visible on satellite). Aside from these areas of gustier winds and
a few snow showers, relatively calm conditions will persist until
the arrival of a much stronger system starting on Thursday.

By early Thursday, a strong North Pacific low and its attendant
front will approach central portions of the Aleutian Chain from
the southwest. Easterly winds will ramp up quickly as the gradient
between the deep low pressure and high pressure remaining in place
over the central Bering, with sustained winds peaking in storm
force range along the central Aleutians as the front moves past on
Thursday. Temperatures will initially be cold enough for wet snow
with a shield of precipitation moving out ahead of the low and
frontal axis, but a changeover to mostly rain is likely for most
spots a few hours after the onset of precipitation on Thursday.
Winds will mostly drop off along eastern portions of the Aleutians
between Thursday night and Friday as the low begins to follow
right along the Chain, but stiff northeasterlies will persist well
into gale force range on both the Pacific and Bering side as the
low slowly drifts up into the southern Alaska Peninsula through
Friday. Strong north to northeast winds will similarly persist
across the Pribilofs and on the back side of the low towards the
western Aleutians, with rain gradually transitioning back to snow
as colder air wraps back in from the north behind the low passage.
Extensive areas of freezing spray will develop close to the ice
edge as strong cold advection and gusty northerly winds increase
between Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

A progressive, amplified pattern is expected to keep active
weather ongoing across southern mainland Alaska this weekend into
next week. The weekend looks to begin with low pressure in the
Gulf of Alaska, with a front initially bringing heavy
precipitation decaying and turning showery. Another low enters
the Gulf on Saturday, reinforcing low pressure and bringing
another round of heavier precipitation along the coast by
Saturday night. The track of the low will serve to keep much of
the precipitation from moving inland, and with little warm air
making its way into the mainland. However, models indicate a weak
front may bring light snow on the back side of the low over
Southwest Alaska for Sunday, moving into Southcentral by Monday,
but the light nature of the precipitation is expected to limit
snow amounts to just a few inches. Cold air, as cold as -24C at
850 mb, moves in over the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska on
Sunday, cooling temperatures at the surface and helping to drive
strong gap winds on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula and
along the western Gulf. These winds are likely to gust to storm
force, and in localized areas storm force winds may be sustained.
Gap winds diminish going into Monday as the low pressure in the
Gulf weakens. Shower activity decreases along the north Gulf coast
as a result, and the decaying front leaves much of the southern
mainland dry by Monday night.

At the same time, a strong storm force, or potentially hurricane
force, low in the North Pacific approaches the Aleutian Islands.
Current model consensus suggests that the low tracks several
hundred miles south of the islands, but its front pushes across
the central and eastern Aleutians on Monday. This may bring
easterly winds as strong as storm force along with snow, as a
colder air mass remains in place over the Bering. Snow moves up
along the Alaska Peninsula into Bristol Bay and over Kodiak Island
on Tuesday. While the low dips back into the North Pacific, a
southerly oriented warm conveyer belt brings a continued push of
moisture to fuel precipitation. Transient high pressure enters
the Bering Sea on Tuesday within a very amplified pattern, which
will bring drier conditions. Then, a strong front off a deep low
near the Kamchatka Peninsula looks to bring rain to the western
Aleutians on a southerly push of warmer air late on Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 130, 176, 411
 		 Heavy Freezing: 180, 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CQ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
LONG TERM...RC