Storm Warning 157, NWS Anchorage, AK

897 
FZAK62 PAFC 290022
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-291615-
322 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 mb low complex at 49N 176E moves to 54N 170W at 975 mb Fri 
afternoon and merges with a 965 mb low that forms near 54N 179E 
Fri morning. This low weakens as it moves to 975 mb at 58N 178E 
for Sat afternoon. A 969 mb low forms at 55N 175E for Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-291615-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
322 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-291615-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
322 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-291615-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
322 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-291615-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
322 PM AKST Thu Dec 28 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

092 
FZAK62 PAFC 291249
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-300115-
349 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 mb low at 56N 179E moves to 55N 177E at 968 mb Sat afternoon
and lingers through Sun morning. A 972 mb secondary low at 52N 
172W dissipates through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
349 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
349 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
349 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
349 AM AKST Fri Dec 29 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 PM AKST Wed Dec 27 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Patchy fog has returned to portions of the Copper River Basin and
western Kenai Peninsula today. It will remain through tomorrow
morning. Elsewhere, a clear sky is expected to allow for low
temperatures to drop into the teens below zero across Southcentral
Alaska; lower in the typical colder spots. A ridge of high
pressure will remain in place tomorrow for most locations
resulting in dry conditions. However, northerly winds will stay
strong through the gaps in Whittier, eastern Kenai Peninsula and
Prince William Sound with gusts ranging from 30 to 40 mph through
Friday morning. Blowing snow could occur in these areas.

A low pressure system is working its way north and west into the
northern Gulf of Alaska as a front also moves across Kodiak Island
Friday. The front is trending to slow its speed and also turn
more negatively tilted. With a negatively tilted front, cold air
in place over the Copper River Basin and warm and southeasterly
air approaching from the storm, models have begun to depict a more
northwesterly track to the storm which could result in
precipitation in Prince William Sound, Anchorage area and Eastern
Kenai Peninsula this weekend. However, confidence on the exact
timing, type and location of precipitation remains low at this
time.

CQ/DJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska is forecast to dry out as remaining shortwaves
weaken. After patchy overnight fog, conditions progress from
partly sunny on Thursday, to sunny on Friday as shortwave ridging
and offshore flow will lead to a return of clearer skis and cold
temperatures.

ER

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A complex pattern is evolving over the Bering as a strong front
moves over the Chain tonight. With an ample cold air pool,
precipitation along the front is expected to fall as snow,
transitioning to a rain/snow mix after frontal passage.

South to southeast winds will gust to around 60 mph. Temperatures
at 850 mb are -8C, increasing to -4C behind the front. While cold
enough for snow development, these strong southerly winds will
increase surface temperatures. This is expected to begin Wednesday
night for Adak, during the day on Thursday for Unalaska, and
Thursday night for the Alaska Peninsula. During this period it
will be possible for snow to reduce visibility down to one half
mile or less. Snow levels are forecast to be around 100 to 200 ft.

Throughout the day on Thursday multiple lows are expected to
develop along the front, leading to areas of gales to storm force
winds. As the system spreads out and becomes a complex low,
temperatures will continue to warm into the mid to upper 30s.

ER

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Wednesday)...

The longwave trough extends from the Russian Far East across the
Bering and Southwest Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska through the
forecast period. This provides the track for several low centers
to move along a well developed front across the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Forecast model
confidence is low due to differences in forecast strengths and
tracks. Widespread gale force winds with areas of storm force
gusts are forecast to move from the North Pacific into the Bering
by the end of the period. Precipitation starts as snow in the
colder air, but changes over to rain and snow mixed across the
region through mid-forecast period, and rain by the end. Periods
of locally heavy precipitation are expected across the AKPEN into
Southwest Alaska through Wednesday.

Weather over the Gulf of Alaska will be driven by low centers
that moves along the Southeast Panhandle into the Northern Gulf
through Wednesday. Gusty winds spread along the Alaska Peninsula
over Kodiak Island and along the North Gulf Coast. Northerly gale
force gap winds form through Cook Inlet, Barren Islands, Kamishak
Bay and Shelikof Strait Monday, and around Sitkinak for Tuesday. A
near gale force barrier jet forms along the North Gulf Coast by
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread precipitation extends from
Kamishak Bay along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula to the Canadian
Border through Wednesday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The forecast challenge through the TAF period will be stratus
and fog. The environment is favorable for fog to form, with a steep
low level inversion and dry air aloft. The challenge is figuring
out timing of formation, whether it will move directly over the
terminal, and how long it will last. For now, have largely gone
with climatology, which favors fog forming after sunset and
expanding during the overnight hours. In addition, have strongly
hinted at fog without going all the way down to 1/2 mile
visibility in the TAF. Will wait until fog actually forms to add
more detail and lower conditions (if necessary). Bottom line,
updates will be made to the forecast based on trends in the
Anchorage area.

&&