Storm Warning 150, NWS Anchorage, AK

939 
FZAK52 PAFC 271222
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-280045-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A series of fronts move across the Bering through Tue afternoon. A
999 mb low develops this morning 300 nm southwest of Nikolski and
then moves to around 80 nm south of Togiak by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ750-280045-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ751-280045-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ752-280045-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ753-280045-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ754-280045-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ755-280045-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ756-280045-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ757-280045-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ758-280045-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ759-280045-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ770-280045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ772-280045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ771-280045-
Unalaska Bay-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-280045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ774-280045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ775-280045-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ776-280045-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ777-280045-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ778-280045-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ780-280045-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ781-280045-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ782-280045-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ783-280045-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ784-280045-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and widespread rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ785-280045-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers and widespread
rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ786-280045-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ787-280045-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 40 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ766-280045-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ760-280045-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ761-280045-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ762-280045-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ763-280045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-280045-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ765-280045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ767-280045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
322 AM AKST Mon Nov 27 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
533 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...

The low that had been sitting out near the eastern Aleutians and
southern Alaska Peninsula the last few days has opened up into a
trough and is lifting north and east toward Southcentral. There
are other out of phase short-waves out ahead of this lifting
northward across the Gulf and into Southcentral. The larger trough
is taking on a negative tilt and pulling a surface low back
toward the Kenai Peninsula this morning. Widespread precipitation
is falling across the region, mainly in the form of rain. The one
exception is the Copper River Basin where precipitation is
primarily in the form of snow. Meanwhile, a barrier jet is ramping
up along the north Gulf coast and into Prince William Sound this
morning as an occluded front extending east from the low center
tracks toward the north Gulf coast.

The low and front will push onshore across Prince William Sound
this morning and weaken. Marginally cooler and unstable air will
wrap around the storm system. The combination of cooling due to
melting snow aloft combined with the little bit of cold air
advection should be just enough to cause a transition from rain to
snow for the western Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the Mat-Su.
Timing of the transition will vary based on precipitation
intensity, but the general window will be from mid morning through
early afternoon. Precipitation will linger for much of the day
until the aforementioned upper trough coming in from the west
reaches Southcentral and pushes precipitation inland. The trough
will weaken as it crosses Southcentral tonight, so precipitation
intensity will diminish with time.

Right on the heals of the departing trough, a new long-wave trough
and surface occluded front will move in from the Bering Sea
tonight through Monday, bringing another round of precipitation.
While the overall airmass will start out cooler than the one in
place this morning, there will still be precipitation-type
challenges. Strong southeast flow ahead of the front will warm
the low levels overnight tonight from the Kenai Peninsula to
Anchorage and the southern Mat-Su. In addition to the typical
mountain-top gusty winds, also expect a strong Turnagain Arm jet
to bring some wind to south to west Anchorage overnight through
early Monday morning. The front will track rapidly inland Monday
morning, with winds shifting around to the south to southwest and
colder air moving in. At the same time a potent short-wave aloft
will approach. The end result will be a very quick transition from
warm southeasterly flow (with downsloping in the lee of the Kenai
and Chugach Mountains) to moderate snowfall. There is come
uncertainty in the exact start of snow for any given location,
but it will occur first across the western Kenai in the pre-dawn
hours, then likely reach Anchorage and the southern Mat-Su during
the morning commute. Would expect low visibilities due to the snow
intensity alone, but gusty southerly winds coming up Cook Inlet
could make things much worse. The upper level short-wave will
progress fairly quickly across Southcentral, so expect generally
looks like a 3 hour window for the heavier snowfall. Snow will
head inland Monday afternoon, lingering longest along the south to
west sides of mountain ranges due to the low level south to
southwest flow. Cold air advection will cross all of Southcentral
during the day Monday, bringing snow levels down to sea level for
nearly the entire region. The threat of snow showers will persist
through Monday night thanks to a series of weaker short-waves
aloft and an unstable airmass. It will be hard to narrow down
which areas have the best chance of seeing showers.

Forecast confidence takes a precipitous drop Tuesday through
Tuesday night. Model guidance is all keying on a strong compact
low tracking northward across Southwest Alaska. However, the
spread in track is large. This pattern has potential to bring a
lot of wind into Southcentral if the low takes a more eastward
track across Southwest Alaska. After this, yet another storm moves
up from the Pacific into the Gulf. The one thing that can be said
with confidence as we continue through the week is that
temperatures will be cooler (though perhaps still above normal)
and any precipitation will fall mainly in the form of snow -
especially inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

 - Some model disagreement remains resolving where a low will form
   along an occluding front tracking across the Bering.
 - There is a low chance (20% to 30%) that ice could pile up along
   the shore across the Kuskokwim Delta (specifically Kipnuk to
   Kongiganak) toward Sunday night.
 - There is moderate chance (30% to 45%) that coastal flooding
   could occur across the Kuskokwim Delta shoreline Sunday night
   to Monday.
 - Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend.

Discussion:

The front of a Kamchatka low will continue to sweep across the
Bering with southerly, gale-force winds reaching the western
coast of Alaska by Sunday afternoon. Confidence is high that this
front will bring gale-force wind, with localized areas of embedded
storm-force wind. Strong cold air advection will bring gusty
westerly winds behind the front this weekend and into next week.
One area where model variation is greatest, is identifying where a
low will develop along the occluding front. Any developing low
would lead to increased winds in their immediate vicinity, adding
to the complexity of forecasting where to expect the strongest
winds. This also affects which areas could potentially see ice
pile up along the shore or experience coastal flooding.

Heavy to moderate precipitation will fall across the Aleutian
Chain which weakens to light precipitation for the Southwest, with
the exception of the Bristol Bay region receiving moderate
precipitation. Temperatures across the entire region will trend
downward through this weekend as colder air builds in behind the
front. Most locations will cool enough for rain to transition into
snow by late Sunday night.

-ER

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

A well developed North Central Bering low moves towards the
Western Alaska coast, extending the longwave trough across the
Southern Mainland Alaska. This trough will dissipate Thursday over
Western Interior Alaska. The trough brings widespread cooler
temperatures across the region through the forecast period, with
areas of heavier precipitation. Higher surf may occur over the
Yukon- Kuskokwim coasts. Further west, a second strong low near
Southern Kamchatka brings a major shortwave trough across the
Aleutians and Bering towards Southwest Alaska, with weaker
shortwave troughs to follow along the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Large areas of gale force winds are expected to spread
along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through the end of the
period. Forecast confidence for tracks and strengths becomes mixed
through Saturday with the transient lows.

A strong Eastern North Pacific low moves into the Gulf of Alaska
through Saturday. A gale force barrier jet occurs along the North
Gulf Coast, diminishing late Thursday. Gusty winds up to gale
force will spread mostly over the Eastern Gulf, diminishing
through Saturday. Widespread areas of mixed precipitation are
expected along the North Gulf Coast, and spread inland through
the period.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Chances for snow into this afternoon. Visibilities are
expected to drop to MVFR with cloud ceilings dropping to IFR
through this morning. Conditions improve late this afternoon as
snow chances drop and cloud ceilings will rise above 3000'. Light
northerly winds this morning flipping to southerly early this
afternoon.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
321 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

AKZ102-112-271530-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
321 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

A complex low will continue to push across the Anchorage Bowl and
into the Matanuska Valley. Rain and snow have been observed this
afternoon with this system. The rain/snow mix will transition to
snow. Tonight and early into the morning, an additional 2 to 4
inches of new snow is expected. Travel conditions will be
degraded.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

AKZ155-271500-
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel and Nunivak Island
333 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...Strong Winds and Elevated Water Levels along the Southwest
Coast Sunday Evening into Monday Afternoon...

A strong low wrapping along a front in the Bering Sea will
produce strong west winds beginning this evening and will
continue into Monday afternoon for the Kuskokwim Delta area.
Strong westerly winds may produce elevated water levels 1 to 3
feet above normal high tide levels especially along west facing
coastlines with the highest water levels expected late tonight
and Monday morning. Minor coastal erosion is possible as well as
debris washing up along the coastline. Ice along the coast may
pile up along the shoreline, particularly between Kipnuk and
Kongiganak

Confidence has increased that the low track will stay to the west
of Nunivak Island, resulting in an overall lower threat for
coastal flooding compared to some earlier indications along most
of the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Coastal areas between Toksook Bay
and Kipnuk are likely to see the strongest winds as the low
brushes past to the west later tonight. Equipment along or on the
shoreline in the Kuskokwim Delta area should be moved to high
ground if possible. Please continue to monitor this developing
weather situation for the latest updates:

weather.gov/afc