Storm Warning 129, NWS Anchorage, AK

715 
FZAK52 PAFC 061241
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-070200-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 mb low 140 nm W of St. Matthew moves to 130 nm NE of St.
Paul at 985 mb Tue morning. An additional low 110 nm W of Shemya 
at 1006 mb today moves to 140 nm S of Cold Bay at 980 mb Tue 
morning. The lows then merge over the Alaska Peninsula and move 
into the W Gulf Wed. A front moves into the western Aleutians Wed.

$$

PKZ750-070200-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ751-070200-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ752-070200-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ753-070200-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ754-070200-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-070200-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ756-070200-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ757-070200-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ758-070200-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ759-070200-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ770-070200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ772-070200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ771-070200-
Unalaska Bay-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ773-070200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ774-070200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ775-070200-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ776-070200-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ777-070200-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ778-070200-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ780-070200-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ781-070200-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ782-070200-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ783-070200-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ784-070200-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ785-070200-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ786-070200-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ787-070200-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ766-070200-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 15
ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ760-070200-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ761-070200-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft 
building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ762-070200-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 5 ft. snow 
and rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ763-070200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ764-070200-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ765-070200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ767-070200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
341 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt becoming E in
the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1128 AM AKST Sun Nov 5 2023

.Update...

The upper low and associated trough axis has been slow to pivot
before dropping southward this morning, and the upper low is just
now starting to move into the Kamishak Bay area. This has
resulted in a more prolonged period of moderate snowfall this
morning for much of the Turnagain Arm/western Chugach Mountains,
Anchorage Bowl, and Susitna Valley. Current satellite imagery (as
of 20Z) show the back edge of the heavier snowfall to be north of
Kenai and starting to near the Turnagain Arm. The Anchorage Bowl
up through the Susitna Valley may see another hour or two of
periodic moderate snow, but it looks like most of the heavier
snowfall is starting to wind for these areas. However, light snow
or flurries will likely linger through the afternoon and into the
evening hours for these locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM AKST Sun Nov 5 2023/

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level low is positioned over interior Bristol Bay this
morning, with a trough digging southeastward across the western
Gulf and into the northeast Pacific. A short-wave tracking
underneath the low this morning has slowed the progression of the
low along the trough axis. As a result, there has been a change in
the synoptic solution for the second day in a row, with the
lingering upper level low leading to heavier precipitation out
ahead of it. As a result, after having trended lower with the snow
accumulation forecast yesterday, have now trended back to closer
to the original forecast amounts.

A band of steady precipitation extends from western Prince
William Sound northwestward across the northern Kenai Peninsula to
Anchorage and the southern Susitna Valley. Colder air has moved
up Cook Inlet changing precipitation to all snow. Rain continues
just north of Anchorage and across most of the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, but cold air will continue to advect north and east
changing precipitation to all snow for these areas.

The band of precipitation will continue to track very slowly
north and east this morning as the low moves into the
northwestern Gulf. As the low continues southeastward into the
Gulf this afternoon and evening, precipitation will diminish.
However, the remaining weak trough will continue to progress
northeastward, so areas of very light snow will linger. One area
to keep an eye on will be Cook Inlet where low level convergence
could lead to a very narrow band of snow somewhere along the
western Kenai and Kachemak Bay coasts. These have been known to
cause very localized snow accumulation.

As we head to Monday the original trough will continue a slow
march northeastward across Southcentral. Meanwhile, a new long-
wave trough over the Bering Sea will quickly make its way toward
Southcentral, with a plethora of short-waves tracking rapidly
eastward in the fast flow aloft. Models typically struggle with
the track and strength of these short-waves in progressive flow,
so don't put a whole lot of faith in the precipitation guidance.
This will be favorable for areas of light precipitation, primarily
in the form of snow, Monday through Monday night.

The upper trough will amplify on Tuesday, leading to development
of a large and deep surface low somewhere south of Kodiak Island.
Rapidly building heights downstream will cause the storm system
to lift northward Tuesday night/Wednesday. This will be the most
significant storm to affect the region in quite some time, with
widespread winds and heavy precipitation impacting the Gulf coast
and some of this likely spreading inland across Southcentral.
There is uncertainty in the details of this system, but high
confidence that it will be impactful.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...

No major changes to the short term forecast as a large mid/upper
level trough extends from the northwest coast of Alaska down
through the Alaska Peninsula this morning, with a deepening
parent low near St. Matthew Island and associated frontal system
draped across the central Aleutians.

Isolated light snow continues across the Kuskokwim Delta through
Bristol Bay this morning as minor mid/upper lvl disturbances work
around the periphery of the trough. The developing St. Matthew
low pressure system will keep an active weather pattern for much
of SW AK into the Aleutian Chain through the short term and into
mid week. Some model discrepancy at this time in regards to storm
track but general consensus is that low pressure system will
gradually deepen and move SE towards the Pribilof Islands through
early next week. As the system moves east and winds turn more SW-
ly, expecting warmer air to push into coastal portions of SW AK,
with high temperatures reaching above freezing from King Salmon
and areas south down the AK Peninsula by Monday into Tuesday. As
this warmer air pushes inland, anticipating a temperature gradient
and resultant rain to rain/snow to snow transition. With the
warmer Pacific air, expecting light rain to a rain/snow mix along
coastal areas with a change to all snow the farther inland and
north you go.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

An deep upper-level low located over the Gulf of Alaska will
anchor a negatively tilted longwave trough that will extend from
Eastern Siberia south and east into the Northern Pacific. This
trough will serve as a conveyor belt for surface lows to move
through Southern Alaska through the next work week and into next
weekend. Several lows will track from the western Bering creating
wet and windy conditions across the Bering and into Southwest
Alaska. As one such low approaches the northern Gulf coast
Wednesday with gale-force winds while another gale force low in
the Central Bering another round of wet and windy conditions
along the Aleutian Chain. There is the potential for both of these
systems to produce storm-force winds if the appropriate barrier
jet or cold air advection sets up. While Southwest and the
Aleutians will likely see a series of periodic downpours, while
Southcentral, largely the Southcentral coastline, is expected to
see persistent moderate to heavy precipitation. The type of
precipitation associated with this system will likely be rain
along the coast, however further inland may see a transition to
snow as cold air moves wraps into the storm system. Timing of
these waves and impacts to typically sheltered areas such as
Anchorage are still in flux as models continue to resolve the
progression of the trough and individual waves. Stay tuned as
Winter makes arrives in earnest in Southcentral.

CC

AVIATION...

PANC...Southerly winds and snow will keep conditions between MVFR
and IFR through approximately 21Z this morning before it lightens
up and clouds begin to lift to predominantly MVFR. There is some
uncertainty in how long snow will continue, but anything past ~2Z
today should be very light with ceilings between 3000ft and
5000ft.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
112 PM AKST Sun Nov 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     Snow             7 S Anchorage           61.11N 149.86W
11/05/2023  M4.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            Snowing at time of observation.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
113 PM AKST Sun Nov 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 AM     Snow             Tudor Rd and Seward Hwy 61.18N 149.86W
11/05/2023  E3.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
115 PM AKST Sun Nov 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 AM     Snow             null                    61.15N 149.82W
11/05/2023  E4.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            Heavy, wet snow.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
117 PM AKST Sun Nov 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 AM     Snow             11 SE Anchorage         61.07N 149.77W
11/05/2023  M6.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            Updated snowfall total.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
118 PM AKST Sun Nov 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 AM     Snow             5 SW Anchorage          61.15N 149.93W
11/05/2023  M5.1 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            Corrects previous snow report from null.
            Near Birch Lake.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
119 PM AKST Sun Nov 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     Snow             Spenard                 61.18N 149.93W
11/05/2023  E3.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            Near Jefferson and Northwood Dr.

&&

PP