Storm Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 2, 2023, 2:38 PM AKDT (22:38 UTC)

Expired

Oct 3, 2023, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

368 
FZAK52 PAFC 022238
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031145-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure prevails across the Eastern Bering Sea and 
Aleutians through Tue night. A Kamchatka low moves east to 220 nm 
northwest of Shemya at 988 mb by Wed afternoon, with a front 
extending into the western and central Aleutians.

$$

PKZ750-031145-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ751-031145-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ752-031145-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ753-031145-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ754-031145-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ755-031145-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ756-031145-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ757-031145-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ758-031145-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ759-031145-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ770-031145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ772-031145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ771-031145-
Unalaska Bay-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ773-031145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ774-031145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ775-031145-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ776-031145-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ777-031145-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ778-031145-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ780-031145-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ781-031145-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ782-031145-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ783-031145-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ784-031145-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ785-031145-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ786-031145-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ787-031145-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ766-031145-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ760-031145-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ761-031145-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ762-031145-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ763-031145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-031145-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-031145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ767-031145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
238 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE
25 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 2, 5:17 AM AKDT, 9 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The neutrally-tilted axis of an upper-level trough is tracking
from Southwest Alaska into Southcentral this morning. An attendant
surface cold front is moving across the Alaska Range. A weak
surface low centered over western Prince William Sound is lifting
north ahead of the main trough, with precipitation spreading
across most of Southcentral. Rain is falling near the surface with
snow falling at elevations above 2,500 ft. The northern portions
of the Copper River Basin, along with Eureka, are seeing a
transition from rain to snow as temperatures fall to 32 degrees.
Further west over the Bering Sea and Aleutians, benign weather
conditions prevail under the influence of a high pressure ridge.
The pressure gradient between the aforementioned trough and ridge
are promoting gusty northwesterly gap winds along the Alaska
Peninsula and through the Barren Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern
over the next several days. Minor differences still exist in the
timing of a trough tracking across Southcentral today. The NAM
remains the fastest solution while the GFS remains the slowest.
Thus, the GFS suggests that precipitation tapers off slowest
across Southcentral late tonight. The next system of note is an
upper-level low and surface front that enter the western Bering
and Aleutians starting Tuesday. Models currently have a good
handle on the timing and evolution of said features.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...While VFR ceilings and visibility are expected to persist
for most of the day today, a period of MVFR ceilings and vis are
possible through this morning as rain continues across the
Anchorage bowl. Light winds will give way to stronger northerly
winds this afternoon and evening. Precipitation begins to taper
off late tonight and early Tuesday morning with clearer and drier
conditions as a frontal system departs to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A potent upper-level arctic trough and attendant surface cold
front continue to move east over the Alaska Range this morning.
The resultant southerly flow ahead of both features is drawing up
a weaker upper-level shortwave and surface low over Prince
William Sound this morning north toward interior Southcentral
Alaska. The result is widespread rain from Cook Inlet to Prince
William Sound and the Copper River Basin. Snow levels are
beginning to drop as colder air slowly filters over the region
from west to east, with levels between 2,500 and 3,000 ft as of 4
AM.

As the arctic trough and cold front continue eastward, widespread
cold air advection will occur over Southcentral. Snow levels will
drop to around 2,000 ft through Monday morning and continue to
fall to around 1,000 ft by Monday night. 1-2 inches of snow
remains possible for the Upper Hillside of Anchorage and higher
elevations of Eagle River. 1 to 3 inches of snow is also possible
along portions of the Glenn Highway west of Glennallen and along
the Tok Cutoff from Chistochina to Mentasta Lake. 3 to 6 inches of
snow is possible for Hatcher Pass and across the far northern
portions of the Copper River Basin, especially from Paxson north
to Isabel Pass. Gusty northerly winds through Isabel Pass are also
anticipated which could result in areas of blowing snow north of
Paxson for Monday afternoon and evening.

Lower elevations will see rain, which will come to an end from
west to east as the front moves through. Expect clearer and drier
conditions in the wake of the front, with low temperatures early
Tuesday morning dropping well below freezing for much of
Southcentral. Sheltered valleys and interior locations could see
low temperatures drop into the teens through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

-High Chance of Gale force winds for the western Aleutians on Tuesday

Discussion:

A broad ridge of high pressure is slowly rolling into the central
Bering this morning. Scattered sky cover, from low stratus
trapped beneath the ridge, spans much of the Bering. What remains
of a trough over the Western Alaska Range is gradually shifting
eastward. Southwest Alaska will benefit the most from the
departure of the trough to the east and the approach of high
pressure from the west, as generally clear skies are forecast
through Tuesday morning. However, northern portions of Southwest,
from Bethel eastward into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, will see a
weak front dip into the region with light scattered showers on
Tuesday. A few snowflakes may also fall, though no accumulations
are expected.

In the short term, the most notable weather will stem from a
strengthening pressure gradient over the Eastern Aleutians and
lower Alaska Peninsula. North to northeast wind gusts to 35 knots
will be possible into tonight, especially out of the bays and
passes. High pressure pushes into the eastern Bering by Tuesday
morning, which will see previous northeasterly winds become
easterly. This will see inland winds diminish and only small craft
winds hugging the coast of the Eastern Aleutians.

A much windier day is in store for the Western Aleutians on
Tuesday, as a large front moves into the western Bering. Gale
force, southeasterly winds and higher gusts are forecast before
gradually tapering off Tuesday night. Adak and Atka may experience
a brief round of gales early Wednesday morning though the front
lifts northward and dissipates by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The long term forecast period will be defined by one main feature:
a low in the North Pacific becoming centered near the Alaska
Peninsula, pushing a ridge, and its accompanying drier weather,
out of the way on Thursday. The low anchors itself in the longwave
trough axis, which slowly shifts eastward through the forecast
period, keeping generally unsettled weather over southern mainland
Alaska through the weekend. The low pushes a warm/occluded front
across the Alaska Peninsula and the Gulf of Alaska beginning on
Thursday, spreading precipitation across much of southern mainland
Alaska. At the same time, northeasterly winds will be drawn from
Interior Alaska out across the Kuskokwim Delta, which look to
approach gale force. Precipitation will be heaviest along the
coast, but lighter precipitation will spread inland, north of the
coastal mountains through late week. The best chances to remain
dry through Friday will be north and west of the leading edge of
the front, in the Kuskokwim Delta. Meanwhile, a low in the western
Bering Sea weakens into an elongated trough as some of its energy
is absorbed into the broad low centered over the Alaska
Peninsula.

Then, the front over southern mainland Alaska shifts west by
Saturday, which moves the focus of precipitation from
Southcentral (which begins to dry out) over to the Southwest
coast. Warm southerly flow on the east side of the low will mean
that most precipitation is expected to be rain, with snow levels
rising back into the 3000 to 5000 foot range. Precipitation may
shift out over the eastern Bering Sea by Sunday, though increasing
model spread leads to lower confidence in the location of
precipitation.

There are some indications that a gale force low approaches the
western Aleutians for the weekend, but there is significant track
uncertainty at this lead time. Most model solutions keep the low
out over the North Pacific, but there is a chance for light to
moderate rain and gusty easterly winds through the western/central
Aleutians Saturday or Sunday.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
LONG TERM...NS

In the hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1002 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

AKZ171-031200-
Kodiak Island-
Including the city of Kodiak City
1002 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...RESUSPENDED ASH FROM KATMAI-NOVARUPTA EXPECTED OVER KODIAK
ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

Strong northwesterly winds up to 40 mph have developed across
Shelikof Strait. These winds are resuspending ash from the 1912
Katmai-Novarupta eruption. The villages of Karluk and Larsen Bay
are most likely to be impacted. Ash is currently north of Akhiok,
but ash may mix south to the area.

Those with respiratory ailments in these areas are encouraged to
avoid or reduce outdoor activity to avoid inhaling the ash through
late this evening. The winds will diminish early Tuesday morning,
which should cause the ash to settle out of the atmosphere.

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2023Every storm warning in 2023

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.