Storm Warning 112, NWS Anchorage, AK

756 
FZAK62 PAFC 102315
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111330-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 983 mb low near 44N 158E strengthens to 948 mb Wed afternoon as it
moves to 51N 176E. It then tracks to 55N 175W at 956 mb Thu 
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-111330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 to 35 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 19
to 26 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
315 PM AKDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

369 
FZAK62 PAFC 111132
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 AM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-120200-
332 AM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 mb low near 49N 172E deepens to 950 mb while moving to 52N 
179W late Wed evening. It then lifts into the western Bering near 
55N 177W at 968 mb through Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ411-120200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 AM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 35 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-120200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 AM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft building to 22 to 28
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-120200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 AM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 18 to
26 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-120200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 AM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

516 
FZAK62 PAFC 112328
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-121315-
328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 950 mb low at 50N 177E moves to 55N 174W at 957 mb Thu 
afternoon, then loops to 53N 176W at 975 mb for Fri afternoon. Its
front wraps over the Bering into Western Alaska by Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ411-121315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-121315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft building to 22 to 27
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-121315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 18 to
25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-121315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

659 
FZAK62 PAFC 121136
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-130200-
336 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 mb low at 53N 176E moves to 55N 174W at 960 mb Thu 
afternoon, then loops to 54N 177W at 975 mb for Fri afternoon. 
It crosses the Aleutians into the North Pacific at 986 mb by 
Saturday morning.

$$

PKZ411-130200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
336 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-130200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
336 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft building to 23 to
27 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 to 45 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 14 to
27 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-130200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
336 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-130200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
336 AM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

373 
FZAK62 PAFC 122316
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
316 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-131315-
316 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low at 55N 174W moves to 51N 168W at 985 mb and dissipates 
Sat morning. A 982 mb low forms near 53N 165W Fri afternoon and moves
to the North Pacific Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-131315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
316 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt becoming NE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-131315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
316 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 to 45 kt becoming NE 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-131315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
316 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-131315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
316 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKDT Mon Oct 9 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A persistent upper-level longwave trough remains stationary over
the western half of the state, extending down into the Gulf of
Alaska. This trough is anchored by two distinct shortwaves, the
first moving northwest parallel to the Alaska Panhandle. The
second of these waves is well south of Kodiak Island and
continues to move east toward the west coast of British Columbia.
The first wave is associated with a compact surface low southeast
of Yakutat. An initial band of precipitation out ahead of the low
is beginning to advance toward Middleton Island and Cordova.

Gusty gap winds along the coast continue this afternoon,
especially for Seward and Whittier, as an already northerly flow
is further enhanced by a tightening pressure gradient due to the
advancing area of low pressure to the east.

Elsewhere, fog and low stratus persist from the Matanuska Valley
south over Cook Inlet. This area of cloud, however, is eroding as
the increasing northwesterly flow advects drier air into the
region. Gusty northwesterly winds are also increasing across
Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island as a weaker wave moves south across
Southwest Alaska helping to further draw down the colder airmass
over the interior of the state.

Farther west, high pressure dominates much of the Bering and
Aleutians with plenty of low stratocumulus across this region.
Northerly wind gusts continue for the eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement with the overall synoptic features
through the next several days. The biggest challenge in the short
term for Southcentral Alaska will be how the shortwave digging
south across the Barren Islands for Tuesday morning interacts with
the wave and surface low moving northwest from the Alaska
Panhandle. All models have a new, albeit weaker, surface low
developing southeast of Kenai in response to the first wave. The
discrepancy is with positioning and eventual movement by midweek.
The extent of precipitation west of Prince William Sound will be
dependent on the movement of this feature. Whatever the solution,
moisture looks to linger across portions of the Copper River
Basin, Prince William Sound, and the Chugach and Talkeetnas
Mountains through midweek,

Farther west, a likely hurricane-force low remains forecast to
move over the Western and Central Aleutians beginning Wednesday
morning. Small differences in the position of the center of the
low are evident, but mostly insignificant to the overall picture.
The bigger difference amongst models is the actual strength of the
low with guidance bottoming out the low between 945 mb and 952 mb.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Low MVFR ceilings will likely prevail through mid
afternoon with the potential for MVFR ceilings to climb to near
3,000 ft AGL this evening. A redevelopment of a FEW or SCT low
stratus deck (~ 500 ft AGL) is possible by late evening and
continuing into early Tuesday morning; however, LIFR ceilings
and/or fog is not expected. There is also low chance (10% to 30%)
of flurries Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday)...

An upper-level longwave trough remains located over much of the
state and extends down over the Gulf of Alaska. Embedded within
the trough are various upper shortwaves, notably over Kodiak
Island and near the Panhandle. At the surface, a low pressure
system is centered near Yakutat. An initial band of precipitation
out ahead of the low is beginning to advance toward Middleton
Island and Cordova. Precipitation will continue to spread across
the Copper River Basin tonight into Tuesday morning. Areas of
light snow are forecast for interior regions of the Copper River
Basin, with about 1 to 3" anticipated for the western parts. As
the low tracks closer to Southcentral, moisture wraps up around
the low and gets pulled west across the Chugach Front Range. Light
snow is expected to reach west into the Palmer area Tuesday
morning, and there is also low chance (10% to 30%) of flurries
Tuesday morning for Anchorage, as well. Nonetheless, most of the
snow should stay up on the mountains.

The aforementioned upper shortwave dropping southeastward across
Kodiak Island is helping enhance cold air advection for that area.
The resulting strong, gusty northwesterly gap winds across
Shelikof Strait and Kamishak Gap will continue increasing into the
evening. Going into Wednesday, widespread precipitation focused
over the Copper River Basin becomes more showery as the low
continues to weaken and linger over the northern Gulf near Prince
William Sound. The best chances for precipitation late Wednesday
into Thursday look to be generally over/near Prince William Sound.
Later on Thursday, models are advertising a surface low tracking
into the eastern Gulf. At this time, however, the models are
struggling with its exact track and evolution heading into the end
of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday)...

On satellite imagery, there is an area of high pressure from the
Western Bering to the Central Bering and there are two lows over
the NE Pacific. However, the models have pinged into deep
cyclogenesis over the NW Pacific which will impact the Aleutians
beginning Wednesday. The run to run continuity with the models,
bodes well for high confidence. The expectation is that this
strong North Pacific low that will lift northward to the Western
Bering Sea by Wednesday night and send its front eastward. This
low will reach 945 mb to 950 mb and is being steered by a jet
with a 170 knot core. A tight pressure gradient forces will result
in widespread storm force winds and the potential for hurricane
force gusts Wednesday into Thursday. The High Wind Watch remains
in effect for the Western and Central Aleutian Chain. A Special
Weather Statement has been issued for the Eastern Aleutians to
address that strong winds will be possible late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A weakening upper level low across northern half of the state
will give way to a ridge nosing in across eastern Alaska into the
weekend. This ridge will push much of the colder air entrenched
out across the Bering as it starts to dive south. The powerful
Aleutian system that will have brought the forecast high winds and
hurricane force wind conditions will be unable to progress towards
mainland Alaska and will stall and weaken Saturday as it loses all
upper level support. Overall rain and unsettled weather will be a
mainstay through the weekend in the Aleutians and the AKPEN.

Southcentral will see moderation. Early into the weekend a storm
across the panhandle will lift north, keeping the Gulf coast and
the Copper River Basin in the cross hairs. Temperatures should
swing back into the normal range, after an early week cool down.
For the most part, no appreciable snow is expected in low areas
through the weekend. Overnight Sat/Sun, the Anchorage/MatSu could
light precipitation, mainly focused higher in the mountains. Much
of the extended forecast plays into the evolution of TS Bolaven,
which is currently in the tropics, east of Japan. Beyond the
weekend timeframe, confidence is increasing that the remnants of
this storm will move into the Gulf of Alaska. Model trends
continue to tilt this scenario towards likely.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...MK