Small Craft Advisory 784, NWS Anchorage, AK

504 
FZAK52 PAFC 112347
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-121300-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 994 mb low 100 nm W of Cape Newenham will gradually weaken over
the next couple of days to 1003 mb while meandering 60 nm S of 
Dillingham by Wed morning. High pressure slides into the southern 
Bering Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-121300-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ751-121300-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ752-121300-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ753-121300-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ754-121300-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-121300-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ756-121300-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ757-121300-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ758-121300-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ759-121300-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ770-121300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ772-121300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ771-121300-
Unalaska Bay-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ773-121300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ774-121300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ775-121300-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ776-121300-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ777-121300-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ778-121300-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ780-121300-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Isolated thunderstorms after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ781-121300-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Isolated thunderstorms after
midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ782-121300-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Isolated thunderstorms after
midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ783-121300-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ784-121300-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
evening.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ785-121300-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ786-121300-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ787-121300-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ766-121300-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ760-121300-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ761-121300-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ762-121300-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ763-121300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ764-121300-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ765-121300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ767-121300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
347 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

104 
FZAK52 PAFC 121133
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130000-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure enters the western Bering this morning and spreads 
to the eastern Bering by Wednesday afternoon. A 995 mb low 40 nm 
SW of Cape Newenham will dissipate over Bristol Bay on Wed 
morning. A trough over the western Aleutians on Wed morning tracks
east across the Bering/Aleutians through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ750-130000-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ751-130000-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ752-130000-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ753-130000-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ754-130000-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-130000-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ756-130000-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ757-130000-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ758-130000-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ759-130000-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ770-130000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ772-130000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ771-130000-
Unalaska Bay-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-130000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ774-130000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ775-130000-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Isolated thunderstorms early.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ776-130000-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Isolated thunderstorms early.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ777-130000-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ778-130000-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ780-130000-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Isolated thunderstorms early.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ781-130000-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Isolated thunderstorms early.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ782-130000-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Isolated thunderstorms early.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ783-130000-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ784-130000-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ785-130000-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
Areas of fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ786-130000-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ787-130000-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ766-130000-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ760-130000-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ761-130000-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ762-130000-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ763-130000-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ764-130000-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ765-130000-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ767-130000-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
333 AM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 20 kt
W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKDT Sun Sep 10 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Longwave trough pattern continues on track. A broad upper low
sits over the Southwest Alaska coast. Downstream of the low, a
deep plume of moisture is tracking from south to north from out of
the North Pacific and up along the entire ALCAN border. Rounding
the base of the low is a smaller, slow-moving trough pushing into
the western Gulf, which is maintaining an area of showers from
Kodiak Island into the Kenai Peninsula. A few lightning strikes
were observed between the Barren Islands and the Kenai Peninsula
before 11 AM this morning. The Anchorage Bowl is nestled between
the two features and should see very little to no precipitation
through the day Sunday. The bulk of precipitation is further east
pushing in across Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin.

The Bering Sea is split between an unsettled pattern of
northwesterly flow over the northern Bering. Multiple smaller
troughs are tracking within this flow, southeastward out of
Northeast Russia tracking toward the Southwest coast of Alaska.
The southern Bering and Aleutians is under mostly zonal flow.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Minor difference in the models in the strength and speed of
features. GFS is more of an outlier that could lead to a wetter
conditions, earlier for the Cook Inlet areas today. Otherwise
little differences in terms of outcome expected in the short term
are expected. Consensus diverges further midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through this evening before the next approaching upper disturbance
results in potential MVFR conditions Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Tuesday evening)...

A broad upper-level low pressure system continues to dominate the
weather conditions for Southern Alaska as the passage of several
shortwaves allows for the continuation of the unsettled pattern.
At the surface, a collage of low pressure centers create a broad
trough extending from the Southern Gulf of Alaska into the Prince
William Sound and coastal Southcentral Alaska. This afternoon,
widespread light-to-moderate rainfall across the Prince William
Sound, eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Copper River Basin is
continuing. Given the orientation of the wind flow, Anchorage, the
Mat-Su Valleys, and portions of the western Kenai Peninsula are
seeing a brief break in rainfall. This however may change this
afternoon as a slight shift in wind as well as a improved moisture
surge from the Gulf may allow for some light rain showers to
permeate into the aforementioned regions tonight.

Throughout the overnight period, the surface low pressure systems
in the Gulf will slowly merge, consolidating into a elongated
swath of rainfall expected to extend across mainland Southcentral
into early Monday morning. Overnight tonight, the areas of most
intense rainfall is expected to remain over the northern and
eastern Prince William Sound, with periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall likely. From this point into mid-week, Kodiak Island is
expected to remain in a mostly benign pattern, with some scattered
to partially cloudy skies, chance for the occasional showers, and
light westerly wind. Throughout the day Monday in mainland
Southcentral, widespread rainfall will diminish as the driving low
pressure weakens, leading to a junky, cloudy and showery regime
for the remainder of Monday into Tuesday. Monday afternoon may see
the potential for some isolated thunderstorms in addition to the
scattered showers for the Copper River Basin. These cells will
likely be short lived, however may provide a brief period of
localized enhanced rainfall rates. By Tuesday morning, shortwaves
in the upper-levels will continue to bring a slew of weak surface
features into the Southcentral coastline, raising the expectancy
of rainfall to likely largely in the Prince William Sound region
Tuesday afternoon and evening. This pattern is expected to be
repetitious, and by Wednesday morning, there are signals of yet
another organized low pressure system in the southern Gulf of
Alaska pushing northward toward the coastline. Details regarding
this reinforcing system are yet to be nailed down, however it
appears to bring gusty easterly winds along the coastline ahead of
it's advancement, and widespread rainfall upon moving inland.

Additionally, Flood Warnings remain out for a glacial dammed lake
release for continued flooding near Cooper Landing, Skilak Lake,
and the Kenai Keys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

A broad upper-level low centered near the Bering Strait this
evening will remain quasi-stationary over Western Alaska through
at least mid-week as it rotates various weak shortwaves across the
Bering Sea/Aleutians. Rain showers continue across Southwest
Alaska this evening and wane tonight as a weak shortwave trough
lifts north and east in association with a gale force low south of
Kodiak Island pushing further into the Gulf of Alaska. A weak
surface ridge moves in behind the exiting trough, leading to
clearer skies and some potential for patchy fog development
tonight in the Bristol Bay region.

Further west, a fairly compact low in the northern Bering Sea is
forecast to bring a brief shot of rain and gusty westerly winds
to the Pribilof Islands. A recent scatterometer pass indicates
that winds on the south side of the low are around 30 kt (35
mph), and this swath of wind is forecast to push east and maintain
intensity through Monday morning. At that point, the low becomes
broader, and its winds lessen somewhat, while it begins to push
rain into the Bristol Bay region. The low lingers in place over
Southwest Alaska, continuing to promote rain showers through
Tuesday as it becomes anchored by the upper-level low aloft.

The next system, a weak trough, drops across the western Bering
Sea on Monday, enhancing northwesterly winds to small craft
criteria, and moves through the central Aleutians by Tuesday
morning. Winds gradually relax Tuesday night as surface ridging
moves into the Bering. Then, another disorganized low enters the
western Bering for Wednesday, bringing rain and enhanced winds to
the western Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The long term forecast remains largely on track. Active weather is
still expected as several shortwaves and their associated lows
move along the southern periphery of a broad upper level low
over Western Alaska. With regards to weather hazards, we continue
to monitor the potential for prolonged rainfall along the north
Gulf coast as well as several gale to storm force lows moving
through the forecast area.

Model agreement is a bit worse than average. Guidance struggles
with the phasing of various shortwaves, leading to uncertainty in
the tracks and strengths of the lows they spin up. While forecast
confidence is too low to speak to the impacts of specific storms,
there is decent consensus that the upper level dynamics, combined
with cooler air descending from the Arctic, will provide a
favorable environment for strong surface lows to develop. Given
the location of the broad upper level low, it seems likely that
flow around it will steer storms along the Aleutian Chain and then
up into the north Gulf coast. As such, the north Gulf coast (and
perhaps interior Southcentral Alaska, depending on the track and
strength of these features) will bear the brunt of strong winds
and persistent precipitation associated with these storms. Cold
air aloft will bring slightly cooler than average temperatures,
along with the potential for snow. Current thinking is that if any
snow occurs, it will likely remain at higher elevation in the
mountains.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...VR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
LONG TERM...KC