Small Craft Advisory 621, NWS Anchorage, AK

241 
FZAK52 PAFC 151157
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160030-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1013 mb low 60 nm SW of Cape Newenham moves inland of Bristol 
Bay this afternoon. A front enters the western Bering Sea Mon 
morning.

$$

PKZ750-160030-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ751-160030-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ752-160030-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ753-160030-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ754-160030-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ755-160030-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ756-160030-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ757-160030-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ758-160030-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ759-160030-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ770-160030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ772-160030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ771-160030-
Unalaska Bay-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-160030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ774-160030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ775-160030-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ776-160030-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ777-160030-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ778-160030-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ780-160030-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ781-160030-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ782-160030-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ783-160030-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ784-160030-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ785-160030-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ786-160030-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ787-160030-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ766-160030-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ760-160030-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ761-160030-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ762-160030-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-160030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-160030-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-160030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ767-160030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 AM AKDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper-level low begins to emerge into the Bering Sea from
Kamchatka. The upper-level ridge over the Bering Sea continues to
flatten as mostly west-to-east zonal flow rules the roost across
the Bering. This flow regime continues to keep the Pribilof
Islands shrouded in low clouds and even fog at times. Meanwhile,
scattered showers continue across the northern Alaska Peninsula
and southern Bristol Bay region as a weak shortwave traverses
around the precipice of the Bering ridge. To the east, the tip of
the Bering ridge nosing into Southcentral continues to weaken and
get shunted southward as an upper-level trough over northern
Alaska slowly digs southward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance is in reasonably good agreement concerning synoptic
features through the short-term period. The main feature of note
is a south/southeastward digging upper-level trough pivoting from
northern Alaska and the northern Bering Sea to southern Alaska by
the weekend. The main forecast challenge will be the timing of
mesoscale shortwaves embedded the south/southeastward digging
upper-level trough for the weekend. While forecast confidence is
relatively high in regards for a wet weekend across southern
Alaska, there is still some uncertainty as to where the best rain
bands might set up. Therefore, rainfall totals and rainfall
intensity still remain in flux somewhat.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will continue through most of the day with
MVFR conditions possibly developing after toward morning Saturday
as rain moves into the area. The southeasterly Turnagain Arm
winds will persist through most of the day into Saturday morning.
There may be a window of time this afternoon and evening where
they become less, but should increase again by late Friday
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday
through Sunday)...

The upper level ridge that brought the warm temperatures to much
of Southcentral yesterday is still over the region, but has
weakened. This is evidenced as a potent shortwave is bringing
cloud cover over the region early this morning. While there will
be clouds, Southcentral should remain mostly dry today with
temperatures near or just above normal values expected. That will
rapidly change as a cold upper level low digs from the northwest
into Bristol Bay and a front serves up abundant moisture ahead of
this low. The result will be a wet weekend for the majority of
Southcentral as the southwesterly flow ahead of this upper low
brings in the perfect combination for rain. The main area of
uncertainty will be for areas just to the west of the mountains,
such as Anchorage and Palmer, which may see slightly less rainfall
than nearby areas as there will be south southeasterly flow at
lower level across the mountains which will mitigate the amount of
rain. This is a very deep moisture tap and any southerly low
level flow will just lessen the amount of rain compared to areas
which are not near the traditional downsloping regions.

The rain will spread to the north Gulf coast region Saturday
morning, but the Copper River Basin will see most of the
precipitation get downsloped out by the Chugach Mountains. While
there will still probably be a little in the Basin, the gusty
southerly winds will likely be more noticeable.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Friday through Sunday)...

Overall, an upper level low will bring wet weather to Southwest
Alaska, while a ridge over the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands will
bring cloudy but calm conditions.

For today, a weak surface low moves east across the Bering Sea,
bringing steady rain as it progresses towards Southwest Alaska by
this afternoon/evening. With the low strengthening as it moves
into Southwest Alaska, rainfall will intensify. From Saturday
through Sunday, a strong shortwave rotates into Southwest Alaska,
where it forms a strong upper level low. This will further
reinforce and intensify the existing rainfall; overall, much of
Southwest Alaska may see rain amounts of about 0.5 to 1 inch from
this afternoon through Sunday night, with the potential for rain
totals approaching 2 inches along higher terrain in favorable
upslope areas. Confidence in forecast rain amounts is slowly
increasing, with overnight model runs suggesting that most of the
rain will be concentrated in Bristol Bay, with lesser amounts
across the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley. While there
remains some uncertainty with overall rain amounts, confidence is
high that this system will produce a prolonged period of
widespread rain across the region.

Meanwhile, quieter weather is in store for areas under the
influence of the Bering Sea ridge. As the weak surface low exits
the Bering Sea, the ridge will rebound, leading to a return of
higher pressure across most of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands.
This will likely produce low stratus and fog. There remains a
fair amount of uncertainty with where fog will set up and how
dense it will be; it's more likely than not that fog will be more
widespread and thicker than what's currently in the forecast. With
high pressure aloft and a lot of atmospheric moisture left in the
wake of the departing weak surface low, conditions are primed for
fog.

As we head through Sunday and into Monday, there will be a bit of
a shift in the weather. The upper level low over Southwest Alaska
should depart into the Gulf, leading to a gradual tapering off of
precipitation. Meanwhile, a plume of tropical moisture looks
poised to ride up the western flank of the ridge and across the
Bering Sea, hinting at heavier precipitation and stronger winds on
the way for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands as we head into
the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 though 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The start of the long term forecast begins with higher confidence
as a longwave trough over the Bering Sea is dug southeastward
into the Gulf of Alaska by a vigorous shortwave trough early next
week. At the same time, high pressure is forecast to ridge into
the Central and Eastern Aleutians. This general pattern of a ridge
over the southern Bering and a low over the southern Gulf is
expected to persist through the long term period. Shower chances
will start off the period on Monday elevated for both domains,
before the Gulf low makes further southward progress. Thereafter
rain chances will come from westerly waves of low pressure
progressing over the Bering Sea ridge and easterly waves of low
pressure moving around the Gulf low. Timing of precipitation will
vary and be entirely dependent upon shortwave activity coming from
both directions. Deterministic models are loosely in agreement
with bringing the most prominent westerly wave through Bristol Bay
on Wednesday. Models are in less agreement with easterly wave
activity. West to northwesterly flow over Southwest will keep
conditions cool and cloudy while under the unsettled pattern.
Southcentral will see somewhat warmer temperatures with the
possibility of some days seeing areas reach their seasonable
norms. With the warmer temperatures and easterly wave activity,
thunderstorm chances may also return to the region.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DAN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
LONG TERM...BL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
159 PM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2023

AKZ152-155-161-161800-
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-Kuskokwim Delta-Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of Aniak, Sleetmute, Bethel, Nunivak Island,
King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, and Pilot Point
159 PM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...PROLONGED RAINFALL FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A low pressure system will move across Southwest Alaska through
this weekend and bring heavy rainfall to the region before
gradually tapering off throughout the day Sunday. There is high
confidence that locations in the Greater Bristol Bay Region,
including New Stuyahok and Iliamna, could see over an inch of
rainfall tonight through Sunday morning. Areas north and west of
Bethel, including Newtok, could see storm totals of around 0.25 to
0.5 inches of rainfall through Sunday morning. In general, higher
amounts of precipitation are expected to remain closer to the
Western Alaska Range. Due to model discrepancies, there is less
confidence in the exact location of locally higher amounts and if
total rainfall amounts exceeds two inches.

For more information and for your local forecast, please visit
weather.gov/anchorage.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
204 PM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2023

AKZ101-111-121-125-145-161800-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-Western Kenai Peninsula-
Western Prince William Sound-Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, Chickaloon, Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
Cooper Landing, Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, Moose Pass,
Talkeetna, and Willow
204 PM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...PROLONGED RAINFALL FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE,
MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEY...

A shift back to a rainy weather regime is returning to portions
of Southcentral. Southwesterly flow from the Kenai Peninsula
through Cook Inlet to the Anchorage and Matanuska and Susitna
Valleys will bring prolonged, steady rainfall beginning Friday
night and lasting through at least Sunday morning. Storm total
precipitation is expected to be greatest for communities along
Cook Inlet, such as Nikiski, Kenai, Soldotna and north into the
Susitna Valley, such as Talkeetna and Skwentna northward. High
confidence exists for totals greater than an inch. There is lower
confidence for rainfall totals exceeding two inches and also for
the overall rainfall totals in locations that reside closer to the
Chugach and Kenai Mountains. Southeasterly winds developing closer
to the surface could lower rainfall amounts, but plenty of
moisture will be available for maintaining precipitation for
inland locations at higher elevations, including Sterling,
Anchorage, Palmer, and Wasilla. Locally heavier rainfall rates
will be possible in stronger rain bands.

Prolonged rainfall could cause localized flooding on small
streams. The exact rainfall totals may change. For more
information and for your local forecast, please visit
weather.gov/anchorage.