Small Craft Advisory 521, NWS Anchorage, AK

893 
FZAK52 PAFC 112311
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-121200-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 mb low 30 nm South of Cape Newenham will move to 55 nm East
of Hooper Bay at 1009 mb Tue morning, then dissipate into a 
trough over Norton Sound for Tue afternoon. Its front extends into
Southwest Alaska through Mon afternoon. High pressure builds over
the Alaska Peninsula by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-121200-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ751-121200-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ752-121200-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ753-121200-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ754-121200-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ755-121200-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ756-121200-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ757-121200-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ758-121200-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ759-121200-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ770-121200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ772-121200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ771-121200-
Unalaska Bay-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-121200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ774-121200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ775-121200-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ776-121200-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ777-121200-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ778-121200-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ780-121200-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ781-121200-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ782-121200-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ783-121200-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ784-121200-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ785-121200-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ786-121200-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ787-121200-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ766-121200-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ760-121200-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-121200-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ762-121200-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ763-121200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-121200-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-121200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ767-121200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
311 PM AKDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 25 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 PM AKDT Sat Jun 10 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad longwave trough extends from the Kamchatka Peninsula south
into the North Pacific before turning back to the north and into
the Gulf of Alaska. The main feature of note is a strong low
tracking north to the Alaska Peninsula along the left exit region
of a 90 kt jetstreak. A recent ASCAT pass indicates 40 kt winds in
the cold sector of this intensifying storm. Over the southern
mainland an elongated upper level shortwave is utilizing some
marginal instability to produce areas of scattered showers along
with a few isolated thunderstorms near the Western Alaska Range.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model solutions are in good agreement through Monday and aligned
with the position of the North Pacific low beginning to affect
the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island on tonight. While models
suggest varying strengths of this low, there is high confidence
that widespread gale force winds will impact the marine areas from
the southern Alaska Peninsula to the northern Gulf coast. Gusty
winds and moderate rainfall amounts with this system are set to
also affect land areas along the Southern Alaska Coastline, an
abnormal pattern for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR under gusty winds and mid-level ceilings this evening
and overnight. As low level winds shift north around 11/11Z, LLWS
is likely as winds aloft remain southeasterly.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon)...

The relatively cool and moist pattern is set to continue through
the rest of the weekend and into the next work-week. Scattered
showers will continue in the Susitna Valley and western Kenai
Peninsula this afternoon and taper off this evening as a shortwave
trough continues lifting northward through the area.

The well-advertised strong low and front will make it to Kodiak
Island first this evening and bring heavy rain and gusty easterly
winds. The front continues to the north Gulf coast early Sunday
morning and moves inland through the day. This will produce
widespread gale-force winds over the marine areas. There is also
forecast to be a pocket of storm-force winds near the Barren
Islands late tonight into very early Sunday morning. The gales
make it to Prince William Sound Sunday morning through the
afternoon hours as the front pushes ashore. The heaviest of the
rain will be along the eastern Kenai Peninsula/Western Prince
William Sound with Whittier and Portage likely seeing the greatest
amounts Sunday through Sunday night. Although Seward will see
rain, and moderately at times, due to easterly flow in the middle
levels of the atmosphere, most of the precipitation will stay
along the mountain slopes surrounding the area with downsloping
occurring.

Once the front moves inland Sunday night, winds will not be as
strong. However, rain will not end as the upper-level responsible
for sending the strong front into our area is forecast to linger
in the eastern Bering Sea. In turn, flow turns southwesterly in
the middle to upper levels Monday and Tuesday as multiple weak
shortwaves pass over the domain. The result is a continuation of
the showery, cool, and unsettled settled pattern we have been
accustomed to.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An fall-like storm system is moving out of the North Pacific
towards the Alaska Peninsula late tonight, tracking north along
the Southwest Coast through Monday evening. Overall conditions
will include strong, gusty winds and moderate-to-heavy rainfall
across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. The Western
Alaska Range, particularly the windward (eastern) side of the
Range, and south along the Alaska Peninsula, will see the
heaviest rainfall. The Bristol Bay region will see some of the
highest winds, with gusts along the coast reaching up to 45 knots
(52 mph) and up to 60 knots (70 mph) further inland. Areas out of
Kamishak Gap will see highest wind speeds. Winds will begin to
subside late Sunday night, though will stay elevated with speeds
18 knots (20 mph) or higher for most areas. Flow will begin to
transition to onshore (south-southwesterly) by Monday morning as
the low continues a northerly track, remaining somewhat elevated
through Tuesday morning. There is still some inconsistency on
Monday with low position, which will dictate where the strongest
onshore winds will be come Monday.

Further west, the Aleutian Arc will see relatively milder weather
conditions as a whole. Showery, with continued cloud cover for
most areas across the Aleutians and much of the Bering Sea.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through
Friday)...

A broad upper level trough remains anchored over the Bering. This
will generate widespread showers across the Aleutians, Alaska
Peninsula, and southwest Alaska through Wednesday. Farther north
over the Arctic Ocean, a strong upper level low extends southward
through Thursday and effectively re-energizes this trough. Would
expect to see continued unsettled conditions for the Bering,
Aleutians and Southwest coast through Friday. Meanwhile for
Southcentral, a weak ridge tries to build over the Gulf on
Wednesday, however is quickly pushed eastward as the upper level
Bering trough advances from the west. An unsettled pattern will
remain as multiple upper level waves traverse Southcentral
through the end of the workweek, keeping showers in the forecast.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AB/CJ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DAN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
LONG TERM...KZ