Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

515 
WWAK61 PAFC 092356
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 9 2023

AKZ141-100500-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230710T0500Z/
356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY...

* Winds...South 13 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph.

* Timing...Until 2100 this evening, especially between 1600 and 
  1900.

* Relative Humidity...22 to 25 percent.

* Temperatures...In the mid to upper 70s.

* Location...The Copper River Valley, between Kenny Lake and
  Chistochina, including Glennallen.

* Impacts...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or occurring now, or will shortly. It is directed
toward fire agencies, and through them to the public.

&&

$$

359 
WWAK61 PAFC 100501
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
901 PM AKDT Sun Jul 9 2023

AKZ141-100615-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230710T0500Z/
901 PM AKDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...

Temperatures and RH will continue to recover overnight and winds
will diminish after midnight


$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 AM AKDT Sun Jul 9 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A blocking ridge continues over Canada this morning with a second
ridge of high pressure persisting over the Gulf of Alaska.
Southcentral should experience another pleasant day with high
pressure to keep the region dry and winds calm. Further west, a
broad trough is situated over the Bering. Within the trough are
multiple lows, the most prominent of which is lifting northeastward
across the Pribilof Islands. A weak associated front is pushing
into the Southwest coast. Southerly small craft winds are noted
south of Kodiak Island and stretch northward along the coastal
regions of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. Gusty conditions
will prevail over Southwest through this evening as the front
moves inland and dissipates, and the Pribilof low continues into
the Chukchi Sea. A second low, within the broader trough, is
pushing into the Western Aleutians this morning, and is expected
to eventually move into the Gulf of Alaska early next week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good synoptic agreement through Tuesday morning.
Guidance then diverges with the track of two put of phase short-
waves over the eastern Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska. The same
general idea is reflected in the models, with one short-wave
lifting northward across western Alaska while the other dives
southeastward across the western Gulf and into the Pacific.
Differences lie in whether precipitation will make it into
Southcentral or remain down over the Gulf and Kodiak Island
Tuesday/Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail today, though ceilings may
jump around a bit through the day. A weak short-wave trough will
bring lowering ceilings this evening, with light rain then moving
in overnight. Ceilings will drop to at least low end VFR, with
some potential for MVFR as rain moves in. For winds, up Inlet flow
will strengthen this afternoon. Winds will then shift to S to SE
as a bit of a Turnagain jet develops this evening. As has been the
case of late, this hybrid-type event of southwest flow up the
Inlet with southeast flow coming out of Turnagain Arm leads to
some uncertainty in the direction and strength of wind at the
terminal.

&&

..SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Monday night)...

Shortwave ridging will build over Kenai Peninsula and Southcentral
this morning and early afternoon as a compact closed low over the
central Bering begins to lose some of its steam as it starts to
lift towards Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley as an
open wave. The attendant cold front will approach Kodiak Island
mid-morning with light rain overspreading the island from south
to north. The front will continue to push north through the day
but will substantially weaken as it nears the southern end of the
Kenai Peninsula this afternoon. However, with the now open wave
pushing through later this evening and overnight, there should be
enough lift to allow light rain to spread northward across the
Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet towards the Anchorage bowl tonight
and into Prince William Sound Monday morning. Beyond Monday,
models have been trending the next system further south with the
trough crossing the eastern Aleutians before starting to dive
south. Depending on how far south this trough tracks, Southcentral
could remain mostly dry with the main swath of rain looking to
impact Kodiak Island and the southern end of the Kenai Peninsula.

Further north into the Copper River Basin...Generally sunny skies
and shortwave ridging aloft should allow for temperatures to bump
back up into the low to mid 70s today. Gusty, southerly winds
will develop this afternoon ahead of the incoming trough, but
conditions will remain dry as rain showers stay off to the south
and west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A series of lows and associated troughs will drift across
Southwest Alaska through early this week. Thus, conditions across
the region will be much of the same, with rain for most areas
persisting through the next few days. Storm total rainfall will
range from half an inch to over 1 inch by Monday morning for spots
including Bethel, Aniak and Sleetmute. Much of Southwest, as well
as the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians, is currently
experiencing elevated winds and wind gusts, which are expected to
continue throughout the day today and into tonight. High pressure
ridging builds over the Bering Sea early Tuesday, producing areas
of fog along the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and along the
Southwest coast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 though 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Generally expect unsettled weather to become more benign by the
end of the week, with the potential for warmer, more seasonable
temperatures for Mainland Alaska. Model agreement is about average
for the long-term forecast, with decent consensus among the
global ensemble models. For deterministic models, the GFS and
ECMWF are in good alignment, whereas the Canadian model looks to
be an outlier.

The primary features dominating the weather in the extended
period will be two ridges in the Bering Sea and Canada, as well
as an upper level low in the southern Gulf of Alaska/North Pacific
Ocean. As the upper level low moves across Southern Alaska and
into the Gulf through Wednesday, expect precipitation to gradually
taper off. Both ridges build into Alaska with the departure of
the low, leading to more benign weather and warmer temperatures.
Ensemble models are hinting at temperatures in the 70s in some
locations; however, it's difficult to get more detailed at this
time due to uncertainty over how strong this ridging will be. The
other thing to watch for will be thunderstorm potential later next
week. Typically, a ridge over interior Alaska and an upper level
low in the Gulf presents a favorable pattern for thunderstorms as
shortwaves rotating around the low combine with clear-sky heating
under the ridge to initiate convection. Overall thunderstorm
potential will depend on the available shortwave energy moving
into Southern Alaska, which remains uncertain at this time.

For the Aleutians and Bering, most of the region will remain under
the influence of the ridge, which typically leads to low stratus
and fog. A southerly push of moisture moving along the western
flank of the ridge looks to push north towards Eastern Russia.
There, it feeds into a stronger upper level low. As the system
moves east, it will break down the ridge through Friday and move a
weak front across the Bering Sea and into Western Alaska by
Saturday.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL/SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
LONG TERM...KC