Gale Warning 856, NWS Anchorage, AK

550 
FZAK51 PAFC 311230
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010130-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 997 mb low 140 nm southeast of Kodiak lifts northward to 10 nm 
west of Seldovia at 1002 mb through Sun evening before dissipating 
over the Kenai Peninsula Sun night. A Pacific front tracks into the 
western Gulf Mon morning.

$$

PKZ710-010130-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ711-010130-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ712-010130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ715-010130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ716-010130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ714-010130-
Resurrection Bay-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ724-010130-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-010130-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ726-010130-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ720-010130-
Port of Valdez-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-010130-
Valdez Narrows-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-010130-
Valdez Arm-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ723-010130-
Passage Canal-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-010130-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ731-010130-
Barren Islands East-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ733-010130-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ732-010130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ734-010130-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft building to 16 ft after midnight.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ736-010130-
Chiniak Bay-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft building to 10 ft after midnight.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ737-010130-
Marmot Bay-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-010130-
Shelikof Strait-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 9 ft after midnight.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ742-010130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ740-010130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ741-010130-
Kachemak Bay-
330 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
548 AM AKST Sat Dec 30 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Fog has improved overnight for the Anchorage area overall. There
is still some lingering fog though around the area, but it is
becoming more patchy and should continue to improve as the upper
level low begins to shift north. Winds are still quite gusty this
morning through the gaps along the Gulf coast. It will take
sometime for the cold air to funnel through as flow begins to
shift southerly with an active pattern returning to Southcentral
Alaska. Low pressure pushing up the SE Panhandle this morning will
bring light precipitation to McCarthy and the Wrangell Mountains
this morning.

Flow will gradually shift southerly throughout the day as a
transient ridge moves through and a trough following behind lifts
through Kodiak into the Gulf through Sunday morning. Models have
continued to trend a little slower with the progression of the
pattern shift, but overall the expectation is on track. Moist
southerly flow will bring increased precipitation chances to
Kodiak Island by this afternoon, spreading to the Kenai Peninsula
Gulf Coast this afternoon into tonight and along the rest of the
Gulf Coast midnight through Sunday. Precipitation is expected to
begin as snow and gradually transition to rain for Saturday night
in Kodiak. A second, more energetic low will move in behind the
trough through Kodiak Sunday. The position of this low has been
more challenging and will play a factor in where precipitation
will ultimately set up from Kodiak and the western Gulf and to the
Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet. The Gulf Coast is certain to get
plenty of precipitation.

As the low moves toward the Kenai Peninsula Sunday, a band of
snow could develop along Cook Inlet affecting Kenai up to the
Susitna Valley. Snowfall cannot be ruled out for Anchorage either.
For now though, not anticipating widespread snowfall for
Anchorage, with the best chances expected along the Alaska Gulf
coast as easterly downsloping winds should keep areas further
inland dry. Expect snow to linger for higher elevations though as
far inland as the Alaska Range. While snow will linger for the
northwestern Gulf coast, most areas across Southcentral will have
snow potential ease a bit with a passing ridge Sunday night. Then
for Monday morning, a repeat returns with yet another trough
moving along the same path as the previous, reaching Kodiak early
and spreading north in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Monday night)...

A very slow moving front associated with a large low stalled out
over the Bering Sea is now draped between Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast this morning. Farther inland, cold
temperatures as low as -20 to -30 are holding in place this
morning where an upper level ridge is retreating north farther
into the western interior. Steady light snow is now pushing into
much of the coastal portions of the Kuskokwim Delta along the
front. More light snow is showing up on the King Salmon radar as
of this writing, and is likely to reach the northern Bristol Bay
coast over the next few hours. The front will lose most of its
definition as it moves farther inland through tonight, giving way
to scattered snow showers that will spread across Southwest from
south to north.

By early Sunday, a very negatively-tilted shortwave trough will
lift north from the the AKPen swiftly across Bristol Bay and then
up into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. This is looking increasingly
likely to bring a quick-hitting round of snow to parts of this
corridor, mainly close to the Alaska Range, including near
Sleetmute and Iliamna. Later on Sunday, a much stronger system
will come into the picture, as a strong North Pacific low runs up
against a strong upper ridge building over the Gulf and into the
southern Mainland. This will set up a very strong northeast
southwest pressure gradient as the low slowly approaches the
southern Alaska Peninsula through Monday. Strong, gusty east winds
will steadily develop late on Sunday and persist well into Monday,
particularly along the Alaska Peninsula and up across much of
Bristol Bay. This progression of this low has slowed down
compared to earlier expectations, and the low is looking more
likely to weaken quickly as it finally reaches the Alaska
Peninsula late on Monday night. Even so, widespread wind gusts
between 35 and 50 mph are still expected to develop late on Sunday
across all but the Lower Kuskokwim Valley starting Sunday
afternoon and lasting well into Monday night. Any precipitation
with this system will remain light and intermittent, with warming
temperatures likely to change any snow over to rain for much of
Bristol Bay by Monday.

-AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Monday night)...

An active pattern is set to continue with multiple strong low
pressure systems expected to affect parts of the Bering Sea region
in the coming days. This morning, a stacked and weakening low
continues to spin in place over the western Bering Sea as a sea of
snow and rain showers continues to rotate around it into much of
the Aleutian Chain and Pribilofs at times. This low will continue
to meander nearly aimlessly as it slowly fills through Sunday,
but will retain enough strength to keep prolonged westerly gales
in place over the western Aleutians until Sunday afternoon. Late
on Sunday, a North Pacific low will lift slowly north and closer
to the AKPen as it runs into a strong ridge developing to its
north. This will help support a strong wind field to the north of
the center, and sustained gales will develop out towards the
easternmost parts of the Bering Sea and continue through Monday as
the low then quickly weakens before it crosses the Alaska
Peninsula. At the same time, another potent low will lift east-
northeast into the central to eastern Aleutian Chain, effectively
absorbing the remnants of the low crossing into the eastern Bering
by Monday night. Uncertainty for the exact track of this third
system is still quite high at this time, but continued strong
winds in gale to storm force range are likely to impact the
central and eastern parts of the Aleutians as this system moves in
from Monday to Monday night.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Continued unsettled weather into the New Year for most of
Southern Alaska. Forecast models begin well, but diverge in
strengths and tracks of individual systems through the end of the
week. The longwave trough that extends from the Russian Far East
through Bristol Bay into the Gulf of Alaska will move to the North
and undergo some reorientation as several significant shortwaves
work around the center through the forecast period. With well
developed surface lows and frontal systems moving across the
region, widespread precipitation and gusty winds will affect the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula into Southwest Alaska through
Friday. Snow prevails across the Northern portions, while mixed
rain and snow or rain push over the Aleutians and AKPEN into
Southwest Alaska through the period. High end gale force winds
with local areas of storm force gusts spreads across the Aleutians
and Bering into the AKPEN and Southwest Alaska up to Nunivak
Island. A significant shortwave repeats the process over the
Central Aleutians for Wednesday and Thursday.

The active weather continues its Eastward track, as strong
surface lows bring heavy rains to parts of Alaska Peninsula and
Kodiak Island starting New Year's Day, and spreading to the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Southcentral coasts through midweek.
Gale force gap winds spread along the AKPEN, across Kodiak Island
and through the Barren Islands and Kamishak Bay, diminishing late
Wednesday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Mostly similar conditions through early this morning as we
have seen over the past couple of days. Low stratus and/or fog is
likely over the airport and should lift through late morning/early
afternoon. Winds will be overall light and northerly. There is a
chance for a quick shot of snow later tonight with cloud ceilings
dropping below 5000'. Winds will remain northerly but pick up to
around 10 knots early (~16Z) Sunday morning.

KM

&&