Gale Warning 839, NWS Anchorage, AK

161 
FZAK51 PAFC 250024
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-251315-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

The low pressure system that moved inland across Prince William
Sound will remain nearly stationary and weaken though Monday. A 963 
mb low 350 nm S of Port Alexander Monday morning moves near Icy Bay 
at 980 mb Tuesday morning, then moves inland and dissipates. A 982 mb
North Pacific low moves to near the Barren Islands Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ710-251315-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ711-251315-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ712-251315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray W of Middleton
Island.
.MON...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ715-251315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ716-251315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ714-251315-
Resurrection Bay-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread snow showers.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ724-251315-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ725-251315-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ726-251315-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ720-251315-
Port of Valdez-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-251315-
Valdez Narrows-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.MON...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-251315-
Valdez Arm-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow and rain 
showers.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ723-251315-
Passage Canal-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-251315-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ731-251315-
Barren Islands East-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ733-251315-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ732-251315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ734-251315-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, W wind 25 kt
diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ736-251315-
Chiniak Bay-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ737-251315-
Marmot Bay-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-251315-
Shelikof Strait-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ742-251315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ740-251315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft subsiding to
2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ741-251315-
Kachemak Bay-
324 PM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow in the
evening.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A 958 mb low made landfall over the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and
Western Prince William Sound this morning and brought storm force
winds and hurricane force wind gusts to the northern Gulf of
Alaska coastal waters as well as coastal communities to the east
of Prince William Sound. The strong winds are beginning to
diminish in the Cordova area this morning. Gusty northerly winds
over Cook Inlet and Northeasterly winds in the Matanuska Valley
will switch to the south and southwest as cold air pushes rapidly
up Cook Inlet on the back side of the storm. Areas where snow
mixed with or transitioned to rain will rapidly turn back to snow
this morning. Heavier snowfall this morning will diminish through
the day over the Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl and the
Matanuska Valley this afternoon with only scattered snow showers
expected in these areas through Christmas day.

The low continues to weaken rapidly as it moves into Southwest
Alaska on Monday. A deep low now forming in the Southeast Gulf of
Alaska will move north and make landfall near Yakutat and weaken
to a trough along the Gulf of Alaska Coast with precipitation
pushing west into Prince William Sound by Tuesday. A weak low just
south of Kodiak Island on Tuesday morning will push northeast and
merge with the trough and bring another round of precipitation to
the Gulf of Alaska Coast. A more tranquil weather pattern emerges
on Christmas Day with much colder temperatures pushing into the
area and remaining in place for the rest of the week. High
temperatures in the Anchorage area will be in the teens with low
temperatures dropping into the single digits above zero Christmas
morning and Tuesday morning and dropping to the single digits
below zero by Wednesday morning and continuing into Friday.

CC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA (Days
1 through 3)...

An elongated upper level trough is located over the southwestern
Alaska coast to the Bering Strait this morning as a surface low to
the east pushes inland across Southcentral with southerly flow
into the interior. To the west of the trough is cold, north to
northwesterly flow across the Bering Sea into the Alaska
Peninsula. To the western and central Aleutians and the western
Bering Sea, weakly embedded trough features are developing within
a region of broad low pressure and instability.

Cold, northwesterly flow off the southwestern Alaska coast
brought streaks of cold air and moderate to heavy snowfall for the
southern coastline of Bristol Bay. Reduced visibility of a half
mile or less has been observed overnight for Pilot Point and Port
Heiden and a Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect through the
morning hours. Once the winds ease, visibility is expected to
improve. Snowfall is expected to continue though as a shortwave
feature off of the Pribilofs is being captured in the same flow
that is moving toward the Alaska Peninsula for the rest of this
afternoon.

Windy conditions across Southwest will create wind chills and the
threat for frost bite across the Bristol Bay area and the
Kuskokwim Delta to around minus 30 degrees. The Kuskokwim Valley
will not be quite as windy. Wind chills will approach minus 40 by
Monday morning.

A cyclonic feature seen on satellite south of Adak will continue
to skirt the Aleutians as it progresses east along the Aleutians
to the Alaska Peninsula and then into the western Gulf Tuesday
morning. Flow will begin to shift northeasterly on the Bering Sea
side and westerly on the Pacific of Alaska Peninsula Monday. Snow
is likely with this system Monday and into Tuesday. Zonal flow
behind the low center appears to bring a large swath of convective
snow showers across the Bering and Aleutians.

The main upper low will continue to sit near the northern Bering
through Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a stronger low with storm
force potential, is expected to approach the western Aleutians
early Wednesday morning. Plenty of additional moisture and warmer
air will accompany this system and it looks to be strong enough to
press that Northern Bering low further north as it attempts to
trek east along the Aleutians through midweek.

rux

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Sunday)...

Generally, unsettled weather and colder temperatures Wednesday
becomes much more active from late Wednesday through Sunday. As an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern develops, a strong low
looks to sweep northeastward from the North Pacific into the
Bering Sea, bringing strong winds to at least gale force, as well
as warmer air and abundant moisture. This will bring the potential
for a rain/snow mix or even rain for the Aleutian Islands and
Bering Sea.

By Friday, increasing model disagreement leads to decreased
forecast confidence. A broad low looks to move towards Mainland
Alaska from the eastern Gulf, but there are some model differences
regarding how this low will interact with the incoming low from
the Bering. In addition, the influx of a strong upper level
shortwave towards the Bering Sea will bring increasingly stormy
weather, but questions remain regarding how this, too, will
interact with the Bering Sea low. Overall, there is moderate
confidence in stormy weather for the Bering Sea and Aleutian
Islands. How much of this moves into Mainland Alaska will
ultimately depend on how the various lows interact with each
other.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light to moderate snow will continue through the morning as
a low center moves from Anchorage to Susitna Valley. Bands of
heavier snow, as well as blowing snow in gusty southerly winds,
could reduce visibility to IFR through noon. As the low exits
westward late this afternoon, expect southerly winds to weaken and
for light snow to gradually taper off.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
Issued by National Weather Service Spokane WA
134 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

AKZ112-242245-
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
134 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2023

...STRONG WINDS, SNOW AND RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A strong area of low pressure moving into the Susitna Valley from
the Kenai Peninsula will bring a combination of strong winds,
snow, and rain to the Matanuska Valley tonight through tomorrow
morning. Expect wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph through 4 AM Sunday as
the area of low pressure moves through the area. Winds will then
shift to the south and diminish through Sunday morning as the low
moves north. A mix of rain and snow is expected with 2 to 6 inches
possible at lower elevations and up to 8 possible at higher
elevations near Hatcher Pass and Sutton. Totals will be highly
dependent on duration of any rain and/or mixed precipitation.