Gale Warning 80, NWS Anchorage, AK

897 
FZAK52 PAFC 311210
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010100-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 mb Western Bering low exits into northern Kamchatka by Tue 
afternoon. Its front reaches Western Alaska by Tue afternoon. A 997 
mb low 310 nm southwest of Shemya moves to 50 nm northeast of Saint 
Paul at 986 mb by Thu morning. Its front tracks east across the 
Aleutian Chain, reaching the Alaska Peninsula by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-010100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-010100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt except NW 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt except SW 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-010100-
Bristol Bay-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-010100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller W, NW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 8
ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-010100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. From Unalaska E, variable wind 10 kt
becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.WED...S wind 35 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Snow 
showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-010100-
Unalaska Bay-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-010100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...S wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. 
Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-010100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain and snow 
showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-010100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-010100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-010100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-010100-
Adak to Kiska-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Widespread snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-010100-
Kiska to Attu-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-010100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Snow.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-010100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray near the ice edge.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-010100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.WED...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-010100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
310 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

785 
FZAK52 PAFC 312328
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-011215-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 mb low 70 nm North of Kiska moves to 195 nm West of 
Mekoryuk at 987 mb for Thu afternoon. Its front swings into 
Western Alaska through Thu afternoon. A 997 mb North Pacific low 
moves to 130 nm North of Atka and dissipates Thu afternoon. Its 
front sweeps over the Aleutians through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-011215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-011215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt except SW 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-011215-
Bristol Bay-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-011215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 8
ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt, Seas 7 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. From Port Moller E, SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after
midnight, Seas 6 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-011215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-011215-
Unalaska Bay-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-011215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-011215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-011215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-011215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow with possible rain and
likely.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-011215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-011215-
Adak to Kiska-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-011215-
Kiska to Attu-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-011215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Snow.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-011215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-011215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.WED...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-011215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
228 PM AKST Tue Jan 31 2023

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKST Mon Jan 30 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A longwave trough continues to be situated to the west of the
domain over East Asia, while ridging is located to the east over
the Northeast Pacific. Though the ridge still stretches up into
mainland Alaska this morning, heights are falling as it has begun
to slide back south and shift eastward. This has allowed a well-
defined front off a large low in the western Bering Sea to
approach the Southwest Alaska coastline. Rain is ongoing across
the Kuskokwim Delta and western Bristol Bay region as the front
begins to push inland. Temperatures are falling in association
with the front as well, with a colder airmass moving in behind
it. Mekoryuk has switched cleanly over to snow with the
temperature dropping to 32. Additionally, a triple point low is
developing along the front south of the Alaska Peninsula, where
temperatures are solidly in the upper 30s.

Over Southcentral, a large, disorganized area of enhanced
vorticity is contributing to widespread stratus, with some
localized fog impinging on north Anchorage. While the Kenai radar
has been seeing weak returns throughout the night, little if any
precipitation has been reported at the ground. Further north, in
the northern Susitna Valley, some upslope snow and rain continues
to be reported. Along the coast, rain and snow showers are moving
in around Prince William Sound. Low stratus is widespread across
the Gulf of Alaska.

Out west, another front defines the boundary of cold air and
colder air in the central Bering Sea within the larger swirling
mass of a former hurricane-force low. Within the colder air mass
over the western Bering, GLD has reported infrequent lightning
from convective cells. Cold advection in association with this air
mass is also allowing for a swath of southwesterly gales across
the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to handle the synoptic-scale pattern well and are
in good agreement. However, run to run differences continue to be
a significant source of uncertainty. Models now suggest that the
front tracking into Southwest Alaska today progresses eastward
slower than previous model consensus, with precipitation only
moving in appreciably over Southcentral by Tuesday night. There is
some divergence in solutions on Wednesday with a shortwave moving
north out of the Gulf of Alaska, which will impact whether
precipitation is reinforced, prolonging snow (as shown by GFS and
GEM) or the front continues to decay over Southcentral (indicated
by EC and NAM) going into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog and low stratus will have the potential to impact the
terminal through this morning. Low cig/vsby conditions should
lift to VFR by late morning. Slight precipitation chances hang on
through the morning but end by this afternoon, and are most likely
not going to impact ceilings or visibility. VFR conditions
continue into Tuesday, though a return of fog and low stratus
cannot be ruled out for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds
remain light through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

Southerly flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere will direct
shortwave troughs northward into Southcentral through Tuesday. The
first shortwave is moving into the northern Gulf this morning and
will push a front towards the coast, bringing rain and snow to
coastal locations. Farther inland, an upper level ridge will
weaken this shortwave, with very little energy and precipitation
pushing north of the coastal mountains. What moisture that does
push north today will be in the form of snow flurries or a very
light wintry mix of freezing rain and/or sleet. However, most
areas north of the coastal mountains will remain dry with cloudy
conditions. Several other weak shortwaves will move into
Southcentral tonight and Tuesday morning, with most of the
precipitation remaining along the coast and very light snow
flurries in the Susitna Valley tonight.

On Tuesday, a surface low will develop across the southeastern
Gulf. This will keep the bulk of the energy and moisture out over
the Gulf. Some weak shortwaves may still rotate north very slowly
into Southcentral, but the precipitation will be light and in the
form of snow as the airmass cools by Tuesday. On Wednesday, a
stronger shortwave trough will become slightly negatively tilted
as it approaches from the west and will bring a better chance of
snow across the area, especially from the Kenai Peninsula
northward into Anchorage and the Mat-Su valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave within a frontal system exists over Southwest Alaska
today, with a second front approaching the Southwest coast late
tonight. Flow will remain mostly southerly today, with
temperatures hovering at or above freezing for most areas this
afternoon. Thus, precipitation, while light, will be rain or a
rain/snow mix. Flow switches to westerly and colder air advected
in behind the initial front, causing temperatures to drop below
freezing tonight and persist through mid-week. Long-duration,
light, showery snow is expected across Southwest Alaska through
mid-week, with little accumulation likely for most areas. The
highest snow amounts will be in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, near
Sleetmute, as they have less influence of warmer air to begin
with, but will still only see around 1 to 3 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

There is a front sweeping across the Bering Sea towards the
Southwest coast today. A widespread area of small craft winds
extend into the central Bering, with an area of gale force winds
in the western Bering. High pressure ridging lifts from the
Pacific into the central Bering tomorrow, shifts eastward and
weakens. A developing low pressure system in the north Pacific
moves into the western Bering on Tuesday and slides northwards.
Widespread gale force winds are expected, with a band of
precipitation riding along the front. The low stalls in the
northern Bering on Wednesday and the front weakens rapidly as it
sits along the Southwest coast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Confidence is increasing that a north pacific low will continue to
deep and drive into the central Bering Wednesday into Thursday.
This system will be much weaker than the one that brought high
winds across the region this week. This low is expected to bring
only low end gales to the central aleutians as it moves towards
the coast. As cold temperatures have begun to return to much of
the state, most precipitation is expected to fall as snow as this
low drives inland into the weekend. Across southcentral, light
snow is anticipated most days, while a bigger driver in the form
of a weak trough will move across the Cook Inlet Region bringing
a a better chance late in the week. The pattern leading into the
weekend will remain rather progressive, though temperatures look
to remain near normal.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 175-178 411 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CQ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
LONG TERM...AB