Gale Warning 784, NWS Anchorage, AK

241 
FZAK52 PAFC 051215
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-060030-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A series of fronts move across the Bering Sea through Wed
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ750-060030-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 
13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ751-060030-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ752-060030-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 
6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt.Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ753-060030-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ754-060030-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ755-060030-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ756-060030-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ757-060030-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ758-060030-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ759-060030-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ770-060030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ772-060030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ771-060030-
Unalaska Bay-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ773-060030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ774-060030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ775-060030-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ776-060030-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ777-060030-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ778-060030-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ780-060030-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ781-060030-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ782-060030-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ783-060030-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ784-060030-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ785-060030-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ786-060030-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ787-060030-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ766-060030-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ760-060030-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ761-060030-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ762-060030-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-060030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-060030-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ765-060030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ767-060030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
315 AM AKST Tue Dec 5 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 40 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, W wind 40 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow showers.
.WED...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 PM AKST Mon Dec 4 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday)...

A gale force low tracking slowly north over the Gulf of Alaska
this evening will lead to primarily marine/coastal impacts
tonight, with increasing precipitation spreading inland through
the week. With the slow moving low only inching northward, its
front remains out over the northern Gulf, allowing cold air to
remain entrenched near the surface over the Copper River Basin.
As a result, northerly gap winds for the Valdez/Thompson Pass area
will remain persistent around the same intensity through at least
Wednesday if not into Thursday. Low-level temperatures over
western portions of Southcentral will be warmer tonight, keeping
winds lighter through Resurrection Bay and Passage Canal.

For Tuesday, a neutrally-tilted trough pushes in across Western
Alaska. Compared to yesterday, models now tilt this trough
slightly negatively with time and are in much better agreement on
this solution. However, models continue to disagree on the
placement of the surface low. The forecast philosophy with a
negatively tilted trough approaching Southcentral Alaska would
favor moisture being drawn northwest from the Gulf low, similar to
the scenario depicted in the GFS solution. As a result, the
forecast today has trended in that direction. This places a band
of precipitation over the western half of the Copper River Basin,
extending westward across the Chugach Front Range and the
Talkeetna Mountains into Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys. These
areas may see up to 6 inches of snow through Wednesday afternoon,
with several more inches possible through Wednesday night and into
Thursday, depending on how quickly the trough progresses and
pushes the band of precipitation eastward. Higher amounts will be
possible in the southern Copper River Basin & Thompson Pass, where
more moisture is wrung out over the coastal mountains. Blowing
snow is expected to be an additional hazard for Thompson Pass as
cold air continues to filter out through gaps, leading to
continued sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph.

By Wednesday, the low moves into the northeastern Gulf, drawing
cold air across the Western Alaska Range. This cold air advection
is likely to enhance gap winds in the western Gulf to storm
force, with gusts in excess of 65 knots (75 mph). For Wednesday
evening, this should begin to push precipitation eastward and
eventually clear it out of Southcentral. Though, as mentioned
above, the timing of this progression is uncertain at this time.
For Thursday, a broad low with a strong upper-level component
tracks into Western Alaska. Its cold front brings potential for
another round of snow to Southcentral as it sweeps eastward out
over the Gulf.

CQ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast remains on track for Southwest and the Bering Sea
with mostly zonal flow and weak ridging over the Bering and a
broad trough and low pressure system over the Gulf. This pattern
combines the cold air moving south from the Bering Strait with the
forcing of the low in the Gulf to produce strong and gusty winds
along the Alaska Peninsula (AKPen), particularly through areas
like King Cove, Sand Point and Chignik. These winds will slowly
let up and shift east through Wednesday afternoon as the Gulf low
weakens. Between the more zonal/weak ridging over the Bering and
the broad low in the Gulf exists an area of deformation, which has
brought light today from the foothills of the Alaska Range south
to Pilot Point. This will let up quickly this evening as things
shift to the east.

Over the Bering expect cooler temperatures, westerly winds and
show showers to persist through the forecast period. This is
mainly due to ample cold air streaming east and southeast across
the Bering. This will be reinforced by a low developing over
Kamchatka tonight that will stream east into the Norton Sound by
Thursday. This will amplify the westerly winds, reinforce the cold
air, and lead to heavier snow/snow showers for the Bering and
western coastlines of the Mainland and AKPen. Snow will also push
farther into the interior Wednesday and Thursday as this low
drives into Norton Sound and eventually the interior.

-Jones

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...Friday through Monday...

The longwave trough over the eastern Bering and western Alaska,
meanders and drifts southeastward into the Gulf of Alaska with a
surface low heading toward the eastern Gulf of Alaska. There is
low confidence for the weekend period with the location of the
surface and where the heaviest precipitation will be, but
expecting an active pattern ahead for eastern Alaska. High
pressure ridging continues indicate amplification for the western
Bering Sea that encourages cool, northerly flow across the Bering
Sea. Snow showers can be expected under the northerly flow,
especially for the central and east Bering. A closed low forms
over Southern Mainland, and drifts to the East through the
weekend.

A North Pacific low with more available moisture and winds
approaching gale force will lift northward toward the Aleutians,
but looks to drift east toward the Gulf before reaching the
Islands. Bands of precipitation would still be reinforced and
would like keep precipitation going, locally heavier at time along
the Aleutians. Another surface low appears to develop and south
of the Alaska Peninsula and tracks into the western Gulf. At this
time, potentially heavy precipitation (10 percent exceedance of 2
inches in 24 hours) to the northern Gulf coast early next week is
possible. There is still low confidence with the position of the
low this far out in time, but is a feature worth tracking over the
next few days.

rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through this evening as
northerly winds around 10 to 15 mph slowly diminish. The remnants
of a front moving northeast across the Chugach/Kenai Mountains
could produce a period of light snow late tonight or early Tuesday
morning. However, dry air continuing to filter in from the north
coupled with the short window for favorable lift will limit
snowfall duration and intensity, and ceiling/visibility is
unlikely to drop towards MVFR range for more than a couple hours
or so early on Tuesday morning.

AS

&&