Gale Warning 730, NWS Anchorage, AK

612 
FZAK51 PAFC 262332
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-271215-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front will move across the Gulf through Mon afternoon. A 998 mb
low will organize at 250 NM south of Akhiok by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ710-271215-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ711-271215-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ712-271215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ715-271215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ716-271215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ714-271215-
Resurrection Bay-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  and rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ724-271215-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-271215-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ726-271215-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-271215-
Port of Valdez-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-271215-
Valdez Narrows-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-271215-
Valdez Arm-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ723-271215-
Passage Canal-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain
with snow.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-271215-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ731-271215-
Barren Islands East-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ733-271215-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ732-271215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ734-271215-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ736-271215-
Chiniak Bay-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ737-271215-
Marmot Bay-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ738-271215-
Shelikof Strait-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ742-271215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ740-271215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ741-271215-
Kachemak Bay-
232 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain with snow.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft except 6 ft in the outer bay.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 PM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)
...

A highly progressive pattern is expected this forecast period. A
cold low near Cold Bay will become a trough and continue to eject
shortwave energy into Southcentral and keeping southerly flow on
tap. The trough axis will push eastward pumping Pacific moisture
towards the region. The main fetch of moisture will impact Prince
William Sound. Surface temperatures will vary across Southcentral
and the precipitation type will vary. After the upper level trough
exits Southcentral, an occluded front from the Bering will push
over Kodiak and into the Gulf. On satellite imagery, this system
also has a fetch of modified tropical air entrained into it.
Expect another round of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...

Key Messages:

 - Models are in poor agreement resolving where a triple point low
   will form along an occluding front tracking across the Bering.
   This is leading to overall lower forecast confidence for Sunday
   into next week.
 - There is a low chance (20% to 30%) that ice could pile up along
   the shore across the Kuskokwim Delta (specifically Kipnuk to
   Kongiganak) Sunday into Sunday night.
 - There is a low to moderate chance (30% to 45%) that coastal
   flooding could occur across the Kuskokwim Delta shoreline
   Sunday into Sunday night.
 - Temperatures will trend cooler through the weekend and into
   next week.

Discussion:

The front of a Kamchatka low will continue to sweep across the
Bering with it's southerly gale-force winds reaching the western
coast of Alaska by Sunday morning. Confidence is high that this
front will bring gale-force wind, with localized areas of embedded
storm force wind. Behind the aforementioned front, strong cold
air advection will bring gusty westerly winds following the front
through this weekend and into next week. One challenge with this
front, and an area where where model variation is greatest, is
identifying where a triple point low will develop along the
occluding front. Any developing low will lead to increased winds
in their immediate vicinity, increasing the complexity of
forecasting where stronger winds will occur. This impacts where/
if areas could see potential ice could pile up along the shore/
coastal flooding.

The front is expected to reach the Pribilof Islands by Saturday
night and then the Southwest coast by Sunday. With this front,
heavy to moderate precipitation will fall across the Chain but
then lose steam as the front weakens bringing light precipitation
to Southwest, with the exception of the Bristol Bay region
receiving moderate precipitation. Temperatures across the entire
region will trend downward through this weekend and into next week
as colder air builds in behind the front. Rain is more likely to
linger along the coast than toward the interior, but even there
temperatures in most locations will decrease enough behind the
front for rain to transition into snow by Monday.

-Sprinkles

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

A well developed North Central Bering low moves towards the
Western Alaska coast, extending the longwave trough across the
Southern Mainland Alaska. This trough will dissipate Thursday over
Western Interior Alaska. The trough brings widespread cooler
temperatures across the region through the forecast period, with
areas of heavier precipitation. Higher surf may occur over the
Yukon- Kuskokwim coasts. Further west, a second strong low near
Southern Kamchatka brings a major shortwave trough across the
Aleutians and Bering towards Southwest Alaska, with weaker
shortwave troughs to follow along the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Large areas of gale force winds are expected to spread
along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through the end of the
period. Forecast confidence for tracks and strengths becomes mixed
through Saturday with the transient lows.

A strong Eastern North Pacific low moves into the Gulf of Alaska
through Saturday. A gale force barrier jet occurs along the North
Gulf Coast, diminishing late Thursday. Gusty winds up to gale
force will spread mostly over the Eastern Gulf, diminishing
through Saturday. Widespread areas of mixed precipitation are
expected along the North Gulf Coast, and spread inland through
the period.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of
the afternoon and into the evening and then deteriorate to MVFR by
Midnight. Rain coverage will increase for Anchorage again this
evening into the overnight as a set of troughs rotate northward.
Modest cold air advection will slowly result in rain changing over
to snow or a rain/snow mix through the day on Sunday before
changing over to all snow by Sunday afternoon should any
precipitation remain in the area. Ceilings will gradually lower
through Saturday night with some IFR CIGs possible Saturday
morning.

Conditions may improve late Sunday before another trough brings
snow and likely IFR conditions to Anchorage late Sunday night into
Monday.

&&