Gale Warning 721, NWS Anchorage, AK

240 
FZAK51 PAFC 222245
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-231115-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A weak front across the Central Gulf pushes to the North Gulf 
Coast by Wed afternoon. A second front enters the Southwest Gulf 
Thu afternoon and reaches the North Gulf Coast for Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ710-231115-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft. Gusts to 55 kt. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ711-231115-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 
12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ712-231115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ715-231115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ716-231115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ714-231115-
Resurrection Bay-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ724-231115-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-231115-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ726-231115-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-231115-
Port of Valdez-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-231115-
Valdez Narrows-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-231115-
Valdez Arm-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ723-231115-
Passage Canal-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts 
to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-231115-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain with light freezing rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ731-231115-
Barren Islands East-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ733-231115-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ732-231115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ734-231115-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ736-231115-
Chiniak Bay-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ737-231115-
Marmot Bay-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-231115-
Shelikof Strait-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ742-231115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ740-231115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ741-231115-
Kachemak Bay-
145 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The primary weather-maker for Southcentral Alaska remains a
weakening low pressure system along the northern Gulf of Alaska
coastline. This system is producing light rain along the
immediate coastline for locations such as Whittier and Cordova;
producing snow for colder, more sheltered locations such as
Valdez. Additionally, some upper-level clouds have moved over
inland Southcentral, including the Copper River Basin, which has
begun limiting how low the minimum temperatures get overnight.
The low pressure system will push inland towards the Copper River
Basin tonight, rapidly weakening as it moves in. Areas of light
precipitation will remain along the coastline, as well as
introducing the chance for some light snow to push into the
Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su for a brief period tonight. Snow
accumulations from this overnight shot of snow to ANC and Mat-Su
will be light, totaling to less than an inch across town. Valdez
may see 2-4 inches overnight into tomorrow as the low pushes
northward.

The next focus of the forecast is a trough swinging into the area
Wednesday morning from the southwest Gulf of Alaska. This system
will bring moderate to heavy rain to Kodiak beginning around 9am.
This system will continue its northward push throughout the day
Wednesday into Wednesday night, spreading light to moderate
precipitation over the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound.
Late in the afternoon Wednesday, as the precipitation moves over
Western Kenai Peninsula, cold air lingering at the surface may
produce some freezing rain over the western Sterling Highway from
Sterling to Anchor Point. While ice accumulations are expected to
be light, this may create slick areas on roadways overnight
Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day morning. A similar pattern is
expected, beginning slightly later Wednesday night, for the
Anchorage and Mat-Su. The Susitna Valley may see up to a tenth of
an inch of ice accumulation along portions of the Parks Highway
at that time. The question of how much precipitation extends into
the area from the easterly flow remains a forecast focus, so stay
tuned as details on this may alter. Precipitation along the Prince
William Sound coastline will linger through the end of the work
week, as another wave from the Gulf will push in, reinforcing the
precipitation in the area Thursday night/Friday morning.

-CL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday afternoon)...

A North Pacific low near the Western Aleutians will move towards
the Eastern Aleutians through Thursday. It pushes its occluding
front across the Aleutian Chain and Southwest Alaska from tonight
through Thursday morning. The primary hazards to watch with this
front will be gusty winds, to gale force, freezing rain/light ice
accumulations across Southwest Alaska, and decent rain totals
along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from Wednesday into
Thursday for Lower/Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay to
highlight the freezing rain and ice accumulations. A Special
Weather Statement is also in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta, where
the likelihood of freezing rain is lower. There remains some
uncertainty with how quickly surface temperatures will warm near
or above freezing, especially in Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Overall,
there is moderate confidence that ice accumulations will remain
light; coastal Bristol Bay should see a relatively quick
transition from snow to rain, while precipitation amounts should
generally remain light. The locations to watch will be Lower
Kuskokwim Valley and Aleknagik; both locations could hold onto
below- freezing surface temperatures for longer, and light showers
moving across Southwest Alaska could lead to additional ice
accumulations by Friday.

Things should stay safely all rain for the Aleutian Islands,
Bering Sea, and the southern portion of the Alaska Peninsula.
For these areas, expect gusty winds to gradually diminish through
Friday as the low weakens. Persistent showers around the low
center could lead to decent rain amounts, especially along the
Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula (including Perryville,
Chignik, and King Cove) due to persistent southerly flow and
upslope enhancement along the mountains.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A weakening vertically stacked low over the Eastern Aleutians
lifts into the Y-K Delta and dissipates Sunday morning. A strong
Kamchatka low moves over the Bering extends a front with a tight
gradient across the Western Aleutians that moves into Western
Alaska for Sunday afternoon. Several waves along the front briefly
increase winds and precipitation. Large areas of Southerly gale
force winds ahead of the front, becoming Westerly behind the front.
Southerly gale force gap winds expected over the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula for Sunday. The Southern portions of the
front break off over the Alaska Peninsula and continue across and
over the North Gulf Coast for Monday night. The Northern portions
of the front wheel over Western Alaska into the Chukchi Sea by
Tuesday. Temperatures expected to trend warmer ahead of the front
with periods of mixed precipitation changing to rain expected
across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and into Southwest Alaska.

A ridge slips Northward over the Mainland through Tuesday. A
portion of the Western front spreads locally gusty winds and
possible gale force gap winds along the Alaska Peninsula, around
Kodiak Island, Eastern Kenai and Southcentral coasts through
Tuesday. A developing eastern North Pacific low intensifies as it
moves into the North-central Gulf by Monday. Warmer temperatures
push into Southcentral Alaska through the period. Initial areas of
snow change to mixed rain and snow with freezing precipitation
inland, and then to rain along coastal areas and higher elevations
inland through Tuesday. Large areas of heavier precipitation
extend from the Northeastern Kenai Peninsula across Southcentral
to the Canadian Border Saturday through Sunday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A weak upper level short-wave will lift northward up Cook
Inlet this evening, pulling low level moisture from Prince William
Sound toward Anchorage. This will bring some very light snow to
the terminal. There could be a brief period of MVFR ceiling/vis,
but it hard to say exactly when that will be. Based on radar
trends late this afternoon, the best bet for MVFR would be between
03Z and 09Z. Ceiling will then lift back up overnight as the
short-wave exits northward and easterly low level flow picks up
ahead of a front moving into the Gulf. Strong easterly winds and
downslope flow will maintain VFR conditions through at least
tomorrow evening. At that point, weak upper level short-waves
tracking south to north could bring some light snow or freezing
rain to the terminal tomorrow evening through Thursday morning.
Forecast confidence in the details of precipitation timing and
precipitation type is low.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
320 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

AKZ155-230200-
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel and Nunivak Island
320 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2023

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

A weak front could bring light freezing rain and trace ice
accumulations as it moves across the Kuskokwim Delta late today
into Thursday.

Precipitation chances will be around 30-50% during this time.
However, with above-freezing temperatures aloft and below-freezing
temperatures at the surface, any light precipitation that occurs
will fall as freezing rain. Please use caution while traveling.