Gale Warning 649, NWS Anchorage, AK

008 
FZAK62 PAFC 250022
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-251500-
322 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 991 mb low at 53N 165W and its front weakens and dissipates 
over the Alaska Peninsula for Sat afternoon. A 980 mb North 
Pacific low moves into Central Kamchatka by Sun morning. Its front
sweeps across the Aleutians and Bering to the Western Alaska 
Coast through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-251500-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
322 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2023

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-251500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
322 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-251500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
322 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-251500-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
322 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind up to 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

022 
FZAK62 PAFC 251241
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-260200-
341 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 998 mb low at 53N 163W dissipates by Sunday afternoon. A cold
front moving through the Western Aleutians reaches the Eastern 
Aleutians Sunday morning and Southwest Coast by Monday 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-260200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

614 
FZAK62 PAFC 260027
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 PM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-261500-
327 PM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 956 mb Central Kamchatka low extends a front over the Western 
Aleutians and Bering that swings into Northwest Alaska for Mon 
afternoon. A 977 mb low forms on the front at 57N 172W Sun morning
and moves to 64N 172W at 972 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-261500-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
327 PM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-261500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
327 PM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. Snow showers
and rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-261500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
327 PM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Snow showers
and rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-261500-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
327 PM AKST Sat Nov 25 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain showers
and snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

569 
FZAK62 PAFC 261256
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-270230-
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb Kamchatka low extends a front over the Aleutians and 
Bering that swings into northwest Alaska for Mon afternoon. A 977
mb low forms on the front and moves to 64N 172W at 967 mb by Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-270230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-270230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-270230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-270230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

783 
FZAK62 PAFC 261834 AAA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
934 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-270445-
934 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb Kamchatka low extends a front over the Aleutians and 
Bering that swings into northwest Alaska for Mon afternoon. A 977
mb low forms on the front and moves to 64N 172W at 967 mb by Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-270445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
934 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-270445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
934 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-270445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
934 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Snow and rain
showers. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-270445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
934 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 10 to 23 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Snow and rain
showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

907 
FZAK62 PAFC 270054
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-271445-
354 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 59N 170W extends a front across the Aleutians 
that will push into western Alaska by Mon afternoon. A 987 mb low 
will form along the front at 57N 161W by Tue morning, moving into 
western Alaska by Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Snow showers
and rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 PM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a closed upper low over the Central Aleutians that will
continue to kick shortwave energy into Southcentral Alaska. Expect
more moisture advection and more southerly flow. Cold air has been
slow to scour out in multiple locations, meanwhile rain has been
observed at Homer, Kenai and Anchorage. The models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern but there are model
differences in the short term forecast period regarding the
timing and progression of this series of shortwaves. By Sunday
that upper level low will be south of Cold Bay and all the while
kicking more shortwaves into Southcentral. Honing in on the timing
of precipitation and precipitation types will remain challenging.
With the longwave trough in place, expect a persistent pattern.
Things are lining up for an interesting El Nino at the high
latitudes.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

A weakening low near Nikolski continues to bring wet and windy
conditions to the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands and precipitation-
type concerns to Southwest Alaska. From Friday through Sunday
afternoon, a front moving west to east across the Bering Sea
brings a shift towards more dynamic and active weather.

Where do we stand with regards to the freezing rain forecast? The
Winter Weather Advisory for Lower/Middle Kuskokwim Valley has been
extended through noon on Friday. As of the writing of this
discussion, temperatures in Sleetmute have topped out at 28
degrees. With daylight fading, it looks like surface temperatures
will remain below freezing until the afternoon tomorrow.
Meanwhile, the sensor at Sparrevohn (elevation 484 feet) shows
observed temperatures climbing into the mid-40s today, confirming
that temperatures aloft are certainly above freezing. As weak
upper level shortwaves rotate around the low and into Southwest
Alaska, any precipitation that falls will likely do so as freezing
rain. Freezing rain could remain in the forecast for Lower
Kuskokwim Valley through Saturday morning as forecast high
temperatures hover just around freezing. At the same time, today's
high of 28 in Sleetmute signals that surface temperatures are
very close to reaching the freezing point; if it does so tomorrow,
we could see a transition towards plain rain/snow by the
afternoon.

Further west in the Kuskokwim Delta, surface high temperatures
have largely risen above freezing. However, with minimum
temperatures potentially dipping below freezing at the surface
and temperatures aloft remaining above freezing, have kept a
slight chance of freezing rain in the forecast through tonight.

Otherwise, the next big weather maker is on the way as a Kamchatka
low pushes its front across the Bering Sea, reaching the Western
Alaska coast by Sunday afternoon. Confidence is high that this
will be a gale force front, with localized areas of embedded storm
force winds. The minor challenge with this front will be
identifying where triple point lows develop along the occluding
front, as these developing lows will lead to increased winds in
their immediate vicinity. Otherwise, model agreement is good with
this front, leading to relatively high forecast confidence from
Friday evening through Sunday afternoon.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The workweek opens with a well developed upper level low exiting
the Russian Far East into the Northern Bering. Its long wave
trough rotates across the Aleutians and Bering into the Mainland
and Gulf of Alaska by the end of the period. Several short waves
will ripple through the flow over the Aleutians, bringing periods
of heavier precipitation and gusty winds. This pattern will
displace the warmer temperatures over most of the state as the
trough moves across the Southern half of Alaska by Thursday.
Strong winds are expected as this system progresses Eastward. Some
gale force winds spread over the Aleutians and Bering for Sunday,
but diminish as the main trough approaches the Alaska Peninsula
by Tuesday. A closed low develops South of Dutch Harbor on Monday,
but its stronger winds will not come to bear until the low moves
towards the Alaska Peninsula. Gale force gap winds are expected
over the Alaska Peninsula and around Kodiak Island for Wednesday
before diminishing Thursday over the Gulf. Locally heavy
precipitation will occur along the North Gulf Coast and move into
Southeast Alaska by Thursday. A strong trough brings gale force
winds to the Western Aleutians and Bering for Wednesday and
Thursday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing at the
airport through the night tonight and the day Friday. therefore
any precipitation should be in the form of rain. There is a chance
for some MVFR ceilings at times this evening into Friday with the
mostly likely time period this evening and overnight. Winds
should remain mainly from the north through Friday.

&&