Gale Warning 539, NWS Anchorage, AK

264 
FZAK52 PAFC 211123
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-220000-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A strong front over the Eastern Aleutians Thu morning dives 
southward across the Alaska Peninsula through Fri morning. A North 
Pacific low moves 370 nm SW of Adak at 1010 mb Fri afternoon. It 
then shifts southeastward back into the North Pacific through Sat 
morning.

$$

PKZ750-220000-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ751-220000-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ752-220000-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.

$$

PKZ753-220000-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ754-220000-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ755-220000-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ756-220000-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ757-220000-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ758-220000-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ759-220000-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ770-220000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ772-220000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ771-220000-
Unalaska Bay-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft
building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ773-220000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ774-220000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ775-220000-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ776-220000-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ777-220000-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ778-220000-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas 10 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ780-220000-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ781-220000-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ782-220000-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ783-220000-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ784-220000-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ785-220000-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ786-220000-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ787-220000-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ766-220000-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ760-220000-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-220000-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ762-220000-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ763-220000-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ764-220000-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ765-220000-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ767-220000-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
323 AM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 35 kt. Seas
7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

664 
FZAK52 PAFC 212241
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-221130-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 mb low 380 nm North of Attu moves to 40 nm North of St 
Matthew Island at 995 mb for Sat afternoon. Its strong front moves
into Western Alaska and across the Alaska Peninsula by Sat 
afternoon. A 1002 mb Sea of Okhotsk low and front moves into the 
Western Bering through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-221130-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ751-221130-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ752-221130-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ753-221130-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ754-221130-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ755-221130-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ756-221130-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ757-221130-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ758-221130-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ759-221130-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ770-221130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ772-221130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ771-221130-
Unalaska Bay-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft
building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ773-221130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ774-221130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ775-221130-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ776-221130-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ777-221130-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ778-221130-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ780-221130-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ781-221130-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ782-221130-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ783-221130-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ784-221130-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ785-221130-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ786-221130-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ787-221130-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ766-221130-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ760-221130-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-221130-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ762-221130-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ763-221130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ764-221130-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ765-221130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ767-221130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
241 PM AKDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
548 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An amplified trough is shifting from Southwest and the Bering
into Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska this morning. Plentiful
moisture along and ahead of a lifting warm front preceding the
trough, is resulting in widespread shower activity infiltrating
Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound. Much of this precipitation
will continue inland of the coast, with rain chances for all of
Southcentral on Wednesday. Over Southwest, lingering northwesterly
flow on the backside of the trough will see lighter and more
scattered chances for rain on Wednesday. Even further west, a
ridge of high pressure is overspreading the Central Aleutians. A
temporary calm is forecast over the southern Bering today before a
Kamchatka low brings a strong front into the region tonight into
Thursday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the short term.
The main question entails the evolution of low pressure, currently
located over Bristol Bay, once it shifts into the western Gulf
later this evening into tonight. Over the second of tomorrow, the
GFS continues to show a slightly more southerly track while the
NAM and EC show a more northerly solution. Despite the
differences, overall impacts will remain largely the same with
weaker forcing pushing well south of the offshore zones and into
Southeast Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will decrease
visibility to MVFR this morning. Ceilings will remain predominantly
VFR/MVFR with the potential for brief drops to IFR. Heavier
rainfall is expected to move out of the terminal by 21Z but MVFR
ceilings may linger into the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A wide swath of rain generally extending from the Cook Inlet
eastwards across the Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and over
the northern Gulf this morning. Rain will continue to spread
northward into the Mat-Su Valley and spill over into the Copper
River Basin area later this morning. Periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall is likely today, but should mainly be confined to more
coastal areas with lighter precipitation inland areas of
Southcentral. The system responsible for another day of wet weather
is showing up well on water vapor satellite imagery with upper low
nearing the southern tip of the AKPen and a modest plume of moisture
streaming over Kodiak Island and western Gulf northward towards the
Talkeetna Mountains and Alaska Range. The heavier rainfall will
shift east towards the Prince William Sound points east along the
Southcentral coast by this afternoon. The closed upper low will
start to weaken into an open wave as it lifts across the Cook Inlet
and merges with another low dropping south across central Alaska
later this evening. Models continue to struggle in refining details
in the low track and the merging systems, but given the competing
systems do look to linger over the region through the next 24 hrs or
so, expect showery conditions to linger into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Friday afternoon)...

Key Messages:
-Potential for Gale force winds today & tonight for portions of the
 Western & Central Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands.

-Rain and showers expected to continue and overspread majority of
 Southwest Alaska through today, not anticipating widespread
 thunderstorms at this time.

-Another gale force front expected to cross the Bering Sea and
 push into the Western and Central Aleutians through Thursday.

No major changes to the short term at this time with wet and windy
conditions on tap for much of the AOR as back-to-back low pressure
systems continue to churn over the far west and the eastern
Bering. Starting with the eastern system, model guidance remains
in relative good agreement that multiple surface waves and pseudo-
open lows should continue to round the base of a mid/upper lvl
trough through Thursday. In tandem with strong SW-ly flow and
PWATS ~1.0-1.5", anticipating these waves to overspread rain and
showers across much of SW AK with QPF totals up to 0.50-1.0"
expected through Thursday night. Potential for brief periods of
rain/snow mix along the Western Alaska Range tonight/ early
Thursday as the backside of the low moves onshore. With low temps
in the mid to upper 30s and early season ground temps, little to
no snow accumulations are expected at this time for the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley.

Looking out west, next system to enter the area will be a gale
force front moving across the Bering Sea today through Friday.
Given marginal 100-200 MU/SBCAPE j/kg and cold air aloft wrapping
around the surface low, low forecast confidence in potential for
brief periods of isolated TSRA this afternoon for portions of the
western Aleutians. While the Western and Central Bering/Aleutians
will likely see winds to gale force and moderate to heavy rain,
the front looks to weaken by the time it reaches the Eastern
Aleutians around tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Long term guidance continues to show a deep and broad upper level
longwave trough centered over Mainland Alaska with multiple upper
level low pressure systems digging south and east out of Siberia
and moving over the Bering Sea and then east through the Gulf of
Alaska and then north and east over the Yukon and Northeast
Alaska Saturday through early next week. Placement, track and the
strength of the individual upper level low pressure systems and
their attending surface features exhibit large spread especially
by early next week. The GFS exhibits the strongest upper level
low over Banks Island while both the ECMWF and Canadian models
both portray a weaker trough and upper level low over Mainland
Alaska. Weak ridging is found over the Western and Central
Aleutians early next week with the general consensus of weak
ridging building into the Northern Pacific and Southern Bering SEa
while the trough continues to dig south and east over the
Northeast Pacific with a second upper level low developing west
of Seattle.

On the surface a weak low in the Northwest Bering will continue
to weaken as it moves north and east with the GFS producing a
stronger low further east as compared to the ECMWF and Canadian
models on Saturday. A second low will move south of the northern
Pacific over the Western Aleutians on Sunday night and Monday with
the GFS again producing a deeper low as the system moves east
through the Aleutians. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty
about how far north the low tracks into the central and northern
Gulf of Alaska or dives south and east into the Northeastern
Pacific.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NM
LONG TERM...CCC