Gale Warning 49, NWS Anchorage, AK

868 
FZAK52 PAFC 121617 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130530-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

$$

PKZ150-130530-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130530-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt except E 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt except E 15 kt E of the Shumagin Islands. 
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130530-
Bristol Bay-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130530-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt except E 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130530-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130530-
Unalaska Bay-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130530-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130530-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130530-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130530-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130530-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130530-
Adak to Kiska-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft Bering side...23 ft Pacific side.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft Bering side...21 ft Pacific side.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130530-
Kiska to Attu-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130530-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130530-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Freezing spray along the ice edge.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray along the ice edge.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Freezing spray along the ice edge.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-130530-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-130530-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 15 kt increasing to 25
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt. Seas 
in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 35 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

241 
FZAK52 PAFC 121617 CCA 
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130530-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 960 mb low 240 nm south of Kiska moves to 100 nm west of Adak 
at 970 mb by Sat morning. Its front extends over the Aleutians 
and the Alaska Peninsula through Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-130530-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130530-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt except E 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt except E 15 kt E of the Shumagin Islands. 
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130530-
Bristol Bay-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130530-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt except E 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130530-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130530-
Unalaska Bay-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130530-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130530-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130530-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130530-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130530-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130530-
Adak to Kiska-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft Bering side...23 ft Pacific side.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft Bering side...21 ft Pacific side.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130530-
Kiska to Attu-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130530-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130530-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Freezing spray along the ice edge.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray along the ice edge.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Freezing spray along the ice edge.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-130530-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-130530-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
717 AM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 15 kt increasing to 25
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt. Seas 
in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 35 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

746 
FZAK52 PAFC 130033
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131400-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 mb low 90 nm South of Kiska moves to 100 nm North of Shemya at
971 mb Sat afternoon. Its front wraps over the Bering and across the
Alaska Peninsula through Sat afternoon. A 971 mb low 155 nm South of
Dutch Harbor moves along the front to merge with the 971 mb low 100 
nm North of Shemya Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-131400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt except E 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131400-
Bristol Bay-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 12 
ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131400-
Unalaska Bay-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 13 
ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131400-
Adak to Kiska-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft Bering side... 21 ft Pac
side.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131400-
Kiska to Attu-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray along the ice edge.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray along the ice edge.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-131400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
333 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 35 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

250 
FZAK52 PAFC 131244
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-140130-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 963 mb complex low 75 nm south of Kiska moves to 50 nm east of
Amchitka at 970 mb Sat morning and then moves to 150 nm north of
Amchitka at 973 mb by Sun morning. A North Pacific low moves to 
150 nm south of Chignik at 970 mb on Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-140130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-140130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-140130-
Bristol Bay-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-140130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-140130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ171-140130-
Unalaska Bay-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-140130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-140130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-140130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-140130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-140130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-140130-
Adak to Kiska-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft Bering side...16 ft Pacific side. 
Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-140130-
Kiska to Attu-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.  and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-140130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-140130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near ice edge.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-140130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 35 kt.

$$

PKZ185-140130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 AM AKST Fri Jan 13 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
416 PM AKST Wed Jan 11 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The subtropical jet remains well south of Alaska, serving to keep
the best dynamic forcing over the Pacific and deep lows generally
along the southern periphery of the the forecast area. A look at
satellite imagery this morning shows two very large upper lows,
one just south of the western Aleutians and a second in the
northeast Pacific. A deep occluding low is drifting northward
toward the western Aleutian chain. A leading frontal system is
lifting northward across the western to central Aleutians and
into the southern Bering Sea, producing gale to storm force winds
and moderate precipitation. The airmass just ahead of the occluded
front is cold enough to produce all snow, with Shemya observing
snow and blowing snow this morning. Marginally warmer air is
advecting northward behind the front leading to a transition in
precipitation type from snow to rain. The northeast Pacific low
is not affecting Alaska at the moment, but with a strong
amplified ridge sitting downstream, short-waves east of the low
center are being steered northward toward the eastern Gulf of
Alaska. These will play a role in the forecast for later this
week.

To the north, a vertically stacked low is nearly stationary over
the northern Bering Sea, with two out of phase short-wave troughs
extending southward across the eastern Bering Sea. These troughs
are tracking eastward toward Southwest Alaska along with a low
level cold front. Areas of very light snow extend northward from
the Alaska Peninsula across Bristol Bay and into the Kuskokwim
Valley. Farther east, a short-wave is lifting northward across
Southcentral with the primary vorticity-maxima crossing the Copper
River Basin. This is producing areas of light precipitation,
primarily from eastern Prince William Sound across the Copper
River Basin. A short-wave ridge is building in behind it, with
areas of low clouds and fog, especially in the Cook Inlet/western
Kenai Peninsula region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement with large scale features through
Thursday. Solutions quickly diverge in the Gulf of Alaska with
track and strength of short-waves and corresponding surface lows.
The GFS is a particular outlier, with a much strong low crossing
the northern Gulf Friday. Will stick with the majority of
solutions which depict weaker lows tracking farther south. Out
west, the first significant difference pops up Saturday with a
developing low tracking out of the Pacific and toward the Alaska
Peninsula. The GFS is an outlier here as well with a faster
further north track. Will once again stick close to the majority
of solutions and ensemble guidance in keeping the low south of the
Alaska Peninsula. Otherwise, the main forecast challenge for the
short-term will be determining extent of low clouds and fog over
southern Alaska as we remain in an overall weak flow regime which
is favorable for these aviation hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Very weak low level east to southeast flow will persist
across the Kenai and Chugach Mountains through tonight. At the
same time, a short-wave ridge will move overhead, increasing what
are already favorable conditions for low clouds to persist on the
Cook Inlet region. The southeast flow could be just enough to keep
low clouds from settling over the terminal, though there will
certainly be some in the vicinity. A weak upper level trough will
approach from the west Thursday morning, bringing a chance of
light snow. If it does snow, expect something similar to what
occurred this morning, with a brief period of MVFR conditions.
Due to weak overall forcing and the presence of lower conditions
in Cook Inlet, overall forecast confidence is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Saturday)...

Most of the snow associated with a Bering Sea trough moving
eastward has ended across the Southcentral mainland. The exception
is some precipitation continuing along Prince William Sound (PWS)
before tapering off early Thursday. Fog is also expected to
persist for areas near Cook Inlet overnight tonight, especially
Anchor Point to Seldovia. As the aforementioned trough moves
further inland, there is a slight chance of snow for the western
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Matanuska Valley Thursday
afternoon. A period of snow is possible for the upper hillside
with snowfall amount less than an inch expected. Heading into the
weekend, a ridge of high pressure builds across the mainland for
drier conditions. Model guidance seem to struggle with a series of
upper level waves streaming northward across the Gulf. Unsettled
conditions looks likely to persist, bringing additional round of
rain and snow near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper-level low moving north out of Southwest Alaska has left a
trailing weak frontal boundary, producing high clouds and on-and-
off snow showers across Southwest. This feature will shift
northeastward out of the area by Thursday morning. High pressure
will begin to build as these disturbances depart the region and
the previously active pattern will be replaced by one of stability.
Thursday morning, winds will remain generally weak and variable
in direction until Thursday evening when offshore flow develops.
This offshore flow is expected to hold steady until the early
weekend. Temperatures are expected to rise slightly along the
coast Thursday, and lower slightly inland. These temperatures are
not expected to significantly change further as we approach the
weekend. Areas of fog tonight into Thursday morning is expected
for coastal Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, a col in the Eastern Bering has kept mostly benign
weather in that region, with the exception of a few snow showers.
The main story however is a North Pacific low pressure system
approaching the Bering Sea. A front along the leading edge of the
low breached the Chain this morning and is currently bringing
gale-force winds and widespread rain and snow to the
Western/Central Aleutians. This front will advance north into the
Bering and eastward along the Chain, reaching Atka early tonight
and Unalaska by late Thursday afternoon. Precipitation associated
with this front will begin as a wintry mix of rain and snow,
transitioning to just rain as the system brings in warmer air
behind the boundary. It is currently expected that the front will
continue advancing north and eastward beyond this point, however
the structural integrity of the frontal boundary will have
weakened significantly by Friday morning. As such, the Pribilofs
and Eastern Aleutian communities such as Cold Bay/Sand Point are
expected to get showers By Friday morning however confidence is
low on intensity and duration. An extended period of gusts, up to
40 mph, in Cold Bay are expected to begin Thursday afternoon with
flow channeling in from the Southeast.

The North Pacific low moving in behind the front is currently
expected to set-up and stall at the tip of the Western Aleutians.
This disturbance will promote unsettled conditions with widespread
precipitation likely across the Western/Central Aleutians that
will persist through the weekend. Winds will relatively calm within
the perimeter of the low compared to current wind speeds.
Precipitation type will likely begin as rain however then quickly
transition to a rain/snow mix as the warm air that was supplying
the low is cut off by colder air from the Bering.

$$.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A broad upper level trough extends over much of Southern Alaska
through Tuesday, bringing active weather for much of the long-term
period. Shortwaves rounding the base of this trough will lead to
warm and wet conditions for the Gulf of Alaska coast, from the
Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island in the west to Prince William Sound
in the east. The exact timing of precipitation and stronger winds
continues to be uncertain with these shortwaves, but forecast
confidence is slowly improving as models begin to hone in on these
features.

Compared to yesterday's long-term forecast, the overall
pattern seems to be advancing a bit more quickly. There also
seems to be improving model agreement that several surface lows
will move into the Gulf of Alaska, increasing confidence that the
Gulf coast will see stormy conditions towards the beginning of
next week. Diving into a bit more detail, there is increasing
consensus for a compact low to move towards Kodiak Island late
Saturday night into Sunday, bringing the potential for a rain/snow
mix along much of the Gulf coast. Precipitation looks to be
reinforced as a shortwave and its associated surface low move
north into the Gulf late Monday night into Tuesday morning. With
deterministic models suggesting this low will be fairly strong
(gale force, with central pressure as low as 965 mb), Eastern
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound will likely see
considerable amounts of snow/rain, but interior portions of the
Southern Mainland seem to remain fairly dry. Conditions look to
improve into Wednesday as the low weakens.

In contrast, quieter weather is in store for the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands for the extended period. The main story for these
locations will be small craft to gale force winds along the
Aleutian Chain through Tuesday as a weak low lingers in the
region, along with snow showers and dropping temperatures.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 411
		 Gale Warning: 173-178, 412, 413
 		 Heavy Freezing Spray: 180, 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CL
LONG TERM...KC