Gale Warning 474, NWS Anchorage, AK

991 
FZAK52 PAFC 272236
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-281200-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 mb Bering low moves to 155 nm northwest of Adak at 996 mb 
by Mon afternoon and then moves to 200nm southwest of Unalaska at 
993 mb by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-281200-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ751-281200-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ752-281200-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ753-281200-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ754-281200-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ755-281200-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ756-281200-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ757-281200-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ758-281200-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ759-281200-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ770-281200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ772-281200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ771-281200-
Unalaska Bay-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ773-281200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ774-281200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ775-281200-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ776-281200-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ777-281200-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ778-281200-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ780-281200-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ781-281200-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ782-281200-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ783-281200-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ784-281200-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ785-281200-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ786-281200-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ787-281200-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ766-281200-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ760-281200-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ761-281200-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ762-281200-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ763-281200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ764-281200-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ765-281200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ767-281200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 PM AKDT Sat Aug 26 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad, longwave trough remains over the over the Bering with an
upper-level ridge downstream over the Alaska Peninsula.
Persistent southwesterly flow between the two continues to
tropical moisture from the Pacific over the Southern Mainland.
The copious moisture feed is wringing out across much of the
region this afternoon, as a stout upper-level shortwave and
attendant occluding surface low lift across the Kuskokwim Delta.
The warm front attached to the surface moved through Southcentral
this morning and continues to lift north. The trailing cold front
is positioned from southern Cook Inlet south over the western
Gulf this afternoon and is moving east. Steady rainfall this
morning is transitioned to a more showery and convective regime,
especially across the Kenai Peninsula and Gulf of Alaska, as the
cold front approaches. Winds have also been quite strong through
the south and southeasterly gaps in response to this system. Gusts
ranging from 40 to 55 mph have been reported throughout the
Anchorage Bowl, Knik River Valley, and Copper River Valley as of
this afternoon. These winds are expected to continue through the
nighttime hours as the gradient between the low out west and the
ridge to the east maintain.

Farther west, showers persistent around the center of circulation
over the Kuskokwim Delta. Strong southerly wind gusts are also
occurring from coastal Bristol Bay to the Middle Kuskokwim Valley.
Strong northerly winds and low clouds persist over the eastern
half of the Bering in the wake of the low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in decent agreement at the synoptic scale through early
next week. There remains, however, some slight discrepancies with
respect to a shortwave and its associated low entering from the
North Pacific for Monday affecting rain timing and amounts across
the Southern Mainland. Farther west, models are coming into better
agreement with a low moving towards the Aleutian Islands from the
Sea of Okhotsk, though some disagreements persist with how the
low will phase with an incoming shortwave and interact with
another trough over the northwestern Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Expect VFR ceilings and vis to persist through Sunday
morning with rain showers continuing through late Saturday
afternoon. Expect southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds of 15 to 25
mph and gusts 30 to 45 mph to persist across the airport complex
through Sunday, as well. There is still some uncertainty as to
whether the gusts diminish slightly this afternoon as a cold front
moves to the east. However, even if gusts do drop off slightly
this afternoon, they are expected to pick back up to a similar
intensity this evening and continue through Sunday morning. Gusty
southeasterly winds will continue into Sunday afternoon, but are
not expected to be as strong as those observed earlier today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

Overall wetter and cooler conditions are expected to continue
across Southcentral for the next several days. A broad trough over
the Bering and an upper-level ridge over the Gulf promote
persistent southwesterly flow across the Southern Mainland. This
flow has been bringing moisture north from the tropics, which has
combined with sufficient upper-level energy to enhance widespread
wetting rains across the region. The core of heaviest rain will
continue pushing slowly east through Sunday as the trough moves to
the east, parking itself over the eastern Prince William Sound.
Valdez and Cordova may receive upwards of 5 inches of rain through
Sunday, with more to come later next week. Multiple flood watches
remain in effect for Southcentral.

Elevated, gusty winds through many of the gaps and passes of
Southcentral are expected to be persistent through the weekend.
These include the Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm and Copper River Valley
winds. The Anchorage Bowl and Glenn Highway corridor towards Eagle
River will also have periods of gusty winds through Sunday. A
Special Weather Statement has been issued addressing this concern.

On Monday, another low tracks from the North Pacific to the
western Gulf coast and returns more widespread wetting rains
across portions of Southcentral. Current models track the low near
Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday morning before
taking it generally over Southwest Alaska later on Tuesday. This
would give areas from Prince William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula
northwest through the Susitna Valley the heavier rainfall
amounts, with the Copper River Basin seeing the least amount of
rain. However, some slight discrepancies with the low placement
and its associated upper shortwave affect rain timing and amounts.

&&.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The longwave pattern features a weak ridge moving into the
central Bering from the North Pacific, between low pressure
systems over Kamchatka and the Alaskan interior. Rain will
continue Saturday night to Sunday morning, as an extended band of
moisture flows north from the Gulf across the AKPen and into the
Southwest. Monday morning, high pressure will shift to the eastern
Bering and weaken as the Kamchatka low drops into the Western
Bering and slows over the central Aleutians. Monday afternoon a
third low pressure system moves north from the Western Gulf,
bringing the next round of rain to the southwest on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

No major changes to the long term forecast at this time.
Intermittent, but soggy conditions expected through the extended as
moist SW-ly flow persists as multiple waves push across much of
Southern AK through the week. Next major system in the extended
should approach the Alaska Peninsula & Kodiak Island by Wed night
before eventually moving inland into Southcentral Alaska by
Thursday/Friday. Main concerns through the extended is persistent
rainfall leading to saturated soils, potential river & coastal
flooding, and elevated winds. With expected wet soils and gusty
winds, can't rule isolated trees and powerlines down by Thursday
night.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ER
LONG TERM...MB