Gale Warning 441, NWS Anchorage, AK

282 
FZAK61 PAFC 111146
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 AM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-120030-
346 AM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1004 mb low at 58N 152W dissipates through Friday afternoon. 
Its front moves over the North Gulf Coast and Southeast Alaska for
Sat morning. A 981 mb North Pacific low at 51N 159W moves to 58N 
151W for Sat morning, then moves inland over the Kenai Peninsula 
for Sat afternoon. Its front extends across the Gulf through Sun 
morning.

$$

PKZ351-120030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
346 AM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft building to 12 to 17 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-120030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
346 AM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

723 
FZAK61 PAFC 112334
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-121500-
334 PM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 979 mb low at 51N 160W moves to 59N 149W at 1008 mb for 
Sun afternoon. Its front extends across the Gulf through 
Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-121500-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
334 PM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft building to 12 to 17 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-121500-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
334 PM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

406 
FZAK61 PAFC 120307 AAA
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
707 PM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-121215-
707 PM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 979 mb low at 51N 160W moves to 59N 149W at 1008 mb for 
Sun afternoon. Its front extends across the Gulf through 
Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-121215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
707 PM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft building to 10 to 17 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 12 to 19 ft in
the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-121215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
707 PM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft building to 
17 to 24 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

443 
FZAK61 PAFC 121157
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-130015-
357 AM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 983 mb low at 57N 151W moves to 60N 147W at 1010 mb for Sun
morning, then moves inland through Sun evening. Its front extends
across the Gulf through Sun afternoon. A North Pacific low moves
to 56N 152W at 1009 mb for Mon morning.

$$

PKZ351-130015-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 AM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 12 to 19 ft in
the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-130015-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 AM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft building to 17 to
24 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

810 
FZAK61 PAFC 122327
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-131445-
327 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 984 mb low at 58N 151W moves to 60N 147W at 1010 mb for Sun 
afternoon, then dissipates Sun evening. Its front moves into the 
Eastern Gulf through Mon afternoon. A 999 mb low near 53N 155W 
Mon morning moves to 56N 150W by Mon afternoon. Its front spreads 
across the Gulf through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-131445-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
327 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-131445-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
327 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 to 27 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

180 
FZAK61 PAFC 131044
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
244 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-140100-
244 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 996 mb low at 59N 150W remains stationary and dissipates by Sun
afternoon. A north Pacific low moves to 58N 144W at 1006 mb by 
Tue morning.

$$

PKZ351-140100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
244 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-140100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
244 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2023

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
548 AM AKDT Thu Aug 10 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad, weak low anchoring a longwave trough remains in place
over the north-central Bering and can be noticed on Satellite
Imagery. Troughing extending eastward from the low over Southwest
Alaska will remain in place through today, resulting in continued
chances for rain showers in the forecast for the region. Several
shortwaves are rotating around the low, resulting in widespread
shower activity on all four radars across southern Alaska. Cloudy
skies are also being observed across most of southern Alaska as
the trough continues to dominate the sensible weather across the
region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to be in good agreement on synoptic features
through the short-term. The main forecast challenges continue to
be with the timing and placement of shortwaves as they round the
trough in the Gulf and become easterly waves over Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska. This could provide enough dynamic support for
thunderstorms across the Coper River Basin and also the Kuskokwim
Valley and Delta. While models are coming into better agreement
with the track of a strong gale-force low in the Gulf of Alaska,
uncertainty remains with the timing of stronger winds and their
spatial distribution.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR conditions will continue this morning, improving to
VFR conditions by late morning. VFR conditions with light winds
are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday through Saturday)...

Generally unsettled weather will continue through Friday as weak
disturbances rotate around a low in the Gulf of Alaska.
Southeasterly flow will keep moisture moving across the area.
Showers will begin to taper off later this afternoon throughout
the evening as southeasterly flow begins to downslope across the
Chugach Mountains near Anchorage and the Copper River Basin.
Isolated thunderstorms could fire off this afternoon across the
Susitna Valley and the western Kenai Peninsula with plenty of
convective potential. It would take a little more lift to set off
thunderstorms over the Kenai, so there is lower confidence for
that area. As for the Anchorage and Matanuska Valley, there is
some convective potential, but it appears unlikely for anything
more than isolated showery downpours.

A more energetic low system develops south of the Aleutians
toward the end of week. Its front reaches the Gulf late Friday
with the low center following behind on Saturday. Models are
nudging westward, but there is still a fair amount of model spread
with implications to the wind field and QPF. The core of water
vapor transport is headed for southeastern Alaska, but confidence
is increasing for Southcentral to expect heavier, stratiform
rainfall with gale force winds along the coast. Forecasted wind
gusts will peak at storm force, but the potential for sustained
winds to reach storm force along the northern Gulf Coast cannot be
ruled out at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Thursday through Saturday)...

A broad, weak low in the central Bering Sea will track southward
to the central Aleutians by this weekend. Troughing extending
eastward from this low over Southwest Alaska will remain in place
through today, which will keep chances for rain showers in the
forecast for the region. However, breaks in sky cover will allow
for increasing daytime high temperatures each day. This will
support isolated thunderstorms over much of interior Southwest
Alaska (including more interior portions of Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta) for Friday afternoon and evening. Dynamic
support will likely be provided by further weak shortwaves
retrograding across Southwest Alaska as the low in the northern
Bering drops south toward the central Aleutians. As guidance
continues to struggle with the timing and placement of these
weaker shortwaves, forecast confidence remains lower regarding
the exact location of showers and thunderstorms.

At the same time, an unseasonably strong North Pacific
low will track into the western Gulf of Alaska. Initially, this
will lead to the development of gusty easterly winds for interior
Bristol Bay as air is forced through Kamishak Gap. As the low
tracks north, these winds shift out of the north for Friday night.
Rain should make its way over the Alaska Peninsula, into Bristol
Bay, and along the Western Alaska Range as the low pushes its
front into Southwest Alaska. As model agreement improves,
confidence is increasing that marine areas east of the Shumagin
Islands will see northeasterly gales, and that the heaviest
precipitation will remain outside of Southwest Alaska.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 though 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Overall unsettled weather pattern continues across the region
into midweek, with all models in close agreement. Bering low moves
closer to the Aleutians, with a number of short wave troughs
rotating around the low. This brings showers and some gusty winds
to most locations over the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. A well
developed North Pacific low center moves into the Gulf to the East
of Kodiak Island early Sunday, moving to the North Gulf Coast for
Monday. This low brings considerable rain and gale force winds
over Kodiak Island for Sunday, and to much of the Gulf and Copper
River Delta through Monday. Another well developed North Pacific
low follows late Monday closer to Kodiak, with similar conditions
into Wednesday.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NSC/CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC/CQ
LONG TERM...KZ