Gale Warning 401, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
533 AM AKDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper-level low over the Bering continues to drive a
stagnant weather pattern across much of the state. Several upper-
level waves continue to rotate around this low, keeping southern
Alaska under a cloudy, cool, and wet pattern. Widespread cloud
cover remains persistent across the Bering, Aleutians, Southwest
and Southcentral. Precipitation has mostly been concentrated over
Prince William Sound, however additional scattered showers have
been observed over Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are in generally good agreement through Friday
night. However, by Saturday, models are suggesting a North Pacific
low lifting over the Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island area. Models
are coming into better agreement with the position of the low
center and the location of strongest winds. Confidence is high
that gale-force winds will impact the coastal Gulf waters this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty south to southeast winds will continue. It is looking
more likely for rain to develop early Saturday morning which could
lower ceilings under 5000 ft, though generally VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

Today is as close to a break in between systems as we are going
to get as one weak shortwave move off to the northwest today and
then the main upper level trough approaches tonight. This trough
has a bit of cold air aloft associated with it and is strong
enough that it will likely bring in more rain to the Cook Inlet
region overnight and into Saturday morning. Kodiak and the north
Gulf coast areas will remain in the southeasterly flow aloft and
at the surface which will keep those areas seeing rain today
through the time this trough passes through. After this trough
passes through, there should be some brief clearing Saturday
afternoon or evening depending on location.

The big event looks to be the next low which is unseasonably
strong. The low center will track southwest to Kodiak Saturday
night and into Bristol Bay Sunday. This will track the front over
Kodiak by Saturday afternoon and to the north Gulf coast overnight
Saturday night with it remaining and moving slowly northward
Sunday. This low is expected to bring in widespread Gales to Gulf
waters with potential for Storm force winds near the Barren
Islands. Quite strong for the second week of June. Prince William
Sound will be right on the cusp of Gales for Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Our rinse-and-repeat weather of gusty winds and rain showers will
continue through Saturday as a broad low continues to linger near
the Central Aleutians. The primary thing to watch for will be the
potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening in the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Overall, the set-up is looking quite
marginal. Cold air in the mid-levels, a robust shortwave moving
through Southwest Alaska, and peaks of sun will help spur
convection, but mostly cloudy skies and low instability/convective
available potential energy mean that the chance of seeing intense
or widespread thunderstorms is quite low. As such, expect to see
perhaps a few lightning strikes Saturday afternoon and evening,
but nothing overly strong or concerning. Current thinking is that
the area north of the Kuskokwim River will have the best potential
to see some lightning.

By Saturday night, attention shifts to a strong surface low moving
out of the North Pacific and into Bristol Bay/the Eastern Bering
Sea. This will be a rather unseasonable storm, with central
pressure dipping into the 980s mb and winds at gale force. While
there is still a bit of uncertainty with the track of the low
center, confidence is high that marine areas around Bristol Bay
and the Alaska Peninsula will see winds at around 25 to 40 kt,
while land areas will likely see gusts 30 mph or greater. The
current forecast reflects peak gusts around 50 mph for parts of
Bristol Bay, which represents the higher end of potential wind
speeds. While we do expect gusty winds with this system, there is
a chance that these wind speeds will be lowered as we continue
assessing the latest data. With the low looking to remain in the
Eastern Bering Sea, much of the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea
will remain in a more benign pattern of continued rain showers and
lighter winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through
Thursday)...

A persistent upper level low over the Bering is still the key
feature for the start of next week. This will keep widespread
cloud cover in place over the Bering with associated shortwaves
rotating around the low generating showers. By late Tuesday,
models hint at a weak ridge over the Gulf of Alaska, which may
bring a brief reprieve to Southcentral by midweek, however it's
not looking likely that this ridge will be strong enough to disrupt
the pattern. By the end of the workweek, models suggest another
North Pacific low lifting over the Alaska Peninsula and
introducing the possibility for continued clouds, rain, and gusty
winds.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
LONG TERM...KO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1147 AM AKDT Fri Jun 9 2023

AKZ161-181-101400-
Bristol Bay-Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek,
Pilot Point, Cold Bay, and Sand Point
1147 AM AKDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

A strong area of low pressure (982 mb) in the North Pacific will
arrive over the Alaska Peninsula Saturday afternoon. Gusty winds
and heavy rain are expected. The heaviest precipitation will fall
along the Alaska Range. Excessive rainfall over low lying areas
may produce localized flooding.

The low center is expected to move into Bristol Bay Sunday
morning. Gusty winds will persist across the Bristol Bay region
until the low exits to the north late Sunday.

For more information and for your local forecast, please visit
weather.gov/Anchorage.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1148 AM AKDT Fri Jun 9 2023

AKZ121-125-171-101400-
Western Kenai Peninsula-Western Prince William Sound-
Kodiak Island-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer, Cooper Landing,
Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, Moose Pass, and Kodiak City
1148 AM AKDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

A strong area of low pressure (982 mb) in the North Pacific will
arrive over the Alaska Peninsula Saturday afternoon. The front
associated with this low will lift northward and extend across the
northern Gulf coast from Kodiak Island to Prince William Sound.

Gusty winds and heavy rain will be the main impacts from this
storm. As the front weakens Sunday night, winds will diminish,
though precipitation is expected to linger across the northern
Gulf through early Monday.

For more information and for your local forecast, please visit
weather.gov/Anchorage.