Gale Warning 331, NWS Anchorage, AK

467 
FZAK52 PAFC 211207
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-220100-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 mb low stalls over Kamchatka through Sun morning. Its front
reaches the Western Bering and Aleutians Fri afternoon and
continues east through Sun morning.

$$

PKZ750-220100-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ751-220100-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ752-220100-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ753-220100-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ754-220100-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ755-220100-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ756-220100-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ757-220100-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ758-220100-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ759-220100-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ770-220100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ772-220100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ771-220100-
Unalaska Bay-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-220100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ774-220100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikoski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ775-220100-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ776-220100-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ777-220100-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ778-220100-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ780-220100-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ781-220100-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ782-220100-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ783-220100-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ784-220100-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ785-220100-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ786-220100-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ787-220100-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ766-220100-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ760-220100-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-220100-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ762-220100-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 1 foot in the evening becoming 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ763-220100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ764-220100-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ765-220100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ767-220100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
407 AM AKDT Fri Apr 21 2023

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 AM AKDT Thu Apr 20 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An amplified pattern remains over the region as a cold upper-
level trough is situated over the Mainland and an upper-level
ridge builds over the Bering. Looking at Satellite Imagery, clear
skies and generally calm conditions persist over the mainland with
the exception of a few higher- level clouds over Southcentral. A
frontal boundary associated with a Kamchatka low remains nearly
stationary over the western Aleutians, keeping southerly flow and
rain over the western Bering and Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in generally good agreement through the short term.
By Friday, there is disagreement about the location of an upper-
level low tracking from the North Pacific into the Gulf.
Furthermore, by the weekend, an upper-level trough over the
northern Arctic will eventually drop southward, eventually
interacting with the aforementioned Gulf low; however there is
still low confidence regarding timing, location, and exact track.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Other than passing high clouds over Southcentral from easterly
waves wrapping around a low over the eastern Gulf, generally quiet
weather is expected for the next couple days. High temperatures
in the mid 40s to low 50s is possible for many locations with lows
near or below freezing. Light, northerly winds could accompany
the coastal gap locations as well.

Toward the weekend, a trough over northeastern mainland will
protrude southward into Southcentral beginning Saturday that could
allow cooler air to filter south with precipitation spreading
from north to south. The precipitation type will be a forecast
challenge as warmer air during the day could lead to an initial
onset of rainfall or rain and snow mix. Then as temperatures cool
with the transitioning airmass and its coinciding nighttime lows,
the precipitation type could be snow. Timing of the trough will be
a big factor in the outcome. Accumulations would be light.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday night)...

Relatively pleasant, quiet spring conditions are set to continue
through the start of the upcoming weekend as a blocking upper
ridge centered over the northern Bering continues to impart
steady, dry and offshore flow across all of Southwest with mostly
clear skies expected to persist through at least Friday night.
Temperatures should continue to push well above freezing during
the day for the next couple days as well, with most spots expected
to see upper 30s to mid 40s for afternoon highs both today and
Friday. By Saturday, an upper level trough originating from the
Arctic will drive south-southwest mostly into Southcentral. This
should result in strengthening northerly flow across Southwest
with some increase in cloud cover, and this should advect in a
noticeably cooler air mass as well. Still, Saturday highs should
manage to get into the mid to upper 30s thanks to our long hours
of daytime heating and only a modestly cooler air mass moving into
place.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday night)...

Most of the region will see quite benign conditions over the next
few days as a blocking high remains stationed across most of the
central and northern Bering Sea. A decaying front west of Adak
will continue to focus areas of very light rain and small craft
level winds across western parts of the Aleutian Chain, although
even this feature will shear apart by this evening. A corridor of
easterly small craft to low end gales will also develop near a low
drifting across the North Pacific along and south of the Alaska
Peninsula and eastern Aleutians, eventually diminishing as the low
pulls south on Friday night. A stronger front will approach the
western Aleutians from Friday night into Saturday, with southeast
winds potentially picking up to storm force sustained ahead of the
boundary where a tight pressure gradient will set up between the
strong Bering ridge and the front's parent low near Kamchatka.
Moderate rainfall perhaps totaling up to 1 inch will be possible
with this front as it passes across the far western Aleutians
through Saturday evening along with around 60 mph wind gusts for
areas near Shemya.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The long-term forecast begins on Sunday with upper-level troughs
and embedded lows located over Southcentral and west of the
western Aleutians near the Kamchatka Peninsula. A ridge of high
pressure is wedged in between the troughs over the Bering Sea and
Aleutians. The main talking point for the long term forecast is
the expected return to below normal temperatures for the Mainland.
As the aforementioned trough and low over Southcentral continue
to drop south from the Arctic on Sunday and Monday, it will allow
a cold airmass to settle into much of the Mainland. The coldest
850 mb temperatures are expected across Southwest and north of
the Alaska Range, however Southcentral should still see colder
temperatures as some of the Arctic air filters through the Alaska
Range. Low pressure on either side of the ridge will gradually
pinch off the high pressure to the north, and by Monday morning,
a longwave upper trough with multiple embedded lows will stretch
from the Bering east across southern Alaska and into Southeast.
By midweek, temperatures begin to moderate as southerly flow
increases across the southern Mainland and the Arctic airmass
retreats northward.

&&

 $$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NSC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
LONG TERM...AF