Gale Warning 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

870 
FZAK51 PAFC 022340
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-031215-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 960 mb low 60 nm southwest of Sitkinak remains nearly 
stationary and dissipates Tue. A 978 mb low 300 nm southeast of 
Middleton Island Tue morning moves to 75 nm southwest of Seward at
985 mb Tue night.

$$

PKZ119-031215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-031215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-031215-
Resurrection Bay-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-031215-
Prince William Sound-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-031215-
Port Valdez-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers with snow showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-031215-
Valdez Narrows-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-031215-
Valdez Arm-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-031215-
Passage Canal-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening diminishing to 15 kt. Gusts to
30 kt in the evening. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-031215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-031215-
Barren Islands East-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-031215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-031215-
Chiniak Bay-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-031215-
Marmot Bay-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-031215-
Shelikof Strait-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-031215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-031215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt.
Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-031215-
Kachemak Bay-
240 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKST Sun Jan 1 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad longwave trough remains nearly stationary over the eastern
Bering and western half of Alaska. The anchoring low is a
vertically stacked low parked over Chirikof Island. Multiple
shortwaves are pinwheeling around this low, with the first one of
note moving north across the Southern Mainland this morning. This
feature is associated with an occluded front moving through
Prince William Sound, spreading a mix of rain and snow along and
ahead of the front. The rain/snow mix is mostly occurring along
the immediate coast and across the eastern Kenai Peninsula with
snow falling along the western Kenai Peninsula north across the
Anchorage Bowl. Precipitation is generally light away from the
coast and will continue to diminish in intensity through the
afternoon and evening as the front weakens.

The 18z sounding from PANC shows temperatures aloft below
freezing (31F). As such, snow has lingered a bit longer than
expected. However, models are still showing temperatures between
925 and 850 mb to warm above freezing through the afternoon and
evening hours.

A secondary wave is rounding the base of the trough and has spun
up a surface low southeast of Kodiak Island, depicted on satellite
imagery. These features will track north to the Kenai Peninsula
for Monday, keeping conditions unsettled across the southern half
of Southcentral.

Farther west, various waves rotating around the backside of the
trough will keep colder air licked in place over the Bering and
Aleutians along with occasional snow showers. As of this
afternoon, one wave is passing just south of the Pribilof Islands
and a second sliding south of the eastern and central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in relatively good agreement through Tuesday.
Guidance is keying in on the next low and upper-level wave to move
to the Kenai Peninsula for Monday morning, helping to enhance
another round of light precipitation over Cook Inlet and across
parts of Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys. Hi-res models and most
global models are also indicating at the development of an
inverted trough across Southwest Alaska by Monday afternoon, as
the aforementioned wave continues to push farther inland. The
development of this trough may be enough to lower surface
pressures far enough north into interior western Alaska to
reorient the pressure gradient through Turnagain Pass and bend the
Turnagain wind into Anchorage for at least a couple of hours.
This solution would introduce forecast challenges with regard to
temperature and precipitation type. Models then struggle Tuesday
into Wednesday with the development of a surface low in the
eastern Gulf tracking northwest to the Kenai Peninsula. The NAM,
EC, and GEM have one distinct low moving into the eastern Kenai
for Wednesday morning with precipitation overspreading coastal
Southcentral and Cook Inlet. The GFS has two separate lows, both
taking a more southern track toward the Barren Islands for
Wednesday. Whatever the solution, the overall pattern favors a
continuation of unsettled weather across the forecast domain.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist along with periods of light
mixed wintry precipitation (snow, sleet, freezing rain).
Precipitation is expected to be very light in intensity with the
best chance for precipitation later this evening. Winds will
remain out of the north and generally light. There is a slight
chance that a southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind may bend across the
terminal Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

A large complex low in the western Gulf of Alaska continues to
bring a variety of precipitation as it pushes a strong front
inland this evening. The heaviest precipitation is already coming
to an end for most locations along the north Gulf coast, with
continued shower activity expected to linger over the next several
days. The bulk of the strong winds materialized further east than
forecast and what winds did appear have largely diminished
already. Weaker easterly winds will persist at elevation, with
northerly flow continuing down Cook Inlet as long as lower
pressure remains in the Gulf of Alaska.

Tonight, there will be periods of showers crossing the coastal
mountains into inland Southcentral. The most likely times for
this to occur are with two significant disturbances pushing
northwest across Southcentral tonight into Monday. The first will
occur over the next several hours through the evening with a weak
shortwave crossing the Kenai/Chugach Mountains. Then, a stronger
meso-low will track towards the Barren Islands Monday morning,
providing the dynamics for the second round of inland showers.
With temperatures cooling slightly overnight, snow will be the
favored precipitation type. However, some warmer air working in
aloft will lead to a chance of mixed precipitation types, with
rain and sleet at times, and even graupel will be possible during
the heaviest showers.

As the aforementioned mesolow passes through the Barren Islands
and into Southwest Alaska, it will bring a push of southeasterly
winds, leading to warming surface temperatures Monday afternoon.
Any lingering shower activity is likely to fall as rain,
especially in the Anchorage Bowl. However, this will compete with
a gusty Turnagain Arm wind which will have the potential to bend
north into Anchorage.

Unsettled weather continues Tuesday as the parent low continues to
rotate disturbances around its center. For now, the features
shown in the latest model runs and ensembles don't look especially
impactful, but will have to keep an eye on how this next feature
resolves over the coming days. Conditions trend drier Monday
night, with weaker impulses having less ability to push shower
activity past the coastal mountains. Inland, partly clearing
skies will allow for some cooling temperatures as winds die down.

By Tuesday, another low enters the Gulf, enhancing coastal
precipitation as the front arrives. The low tracks into the Kenai
Peninsula Tuesday night, bringing the next shot for precipitation
inland, with a weaker cross-barrier component to limit it.
Temperatures with this system will be colder than the current
system, such that this round of precipitation should be mostly a
light snow. Going into Wednesday, Southcentral has a more
prolonged chance at drying out, with cyclonic flow aloft weakening
and only weak disturbances passing through unable to agitate the
atmosphere enough to squeeze out much precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

Unsettled but relatively unimpactful weather continues for
Southwest Alaska. A broad upper level low and its associated
surface low continue to linger around the Alaska Peninsula and
Bristol Bay. With the low becoming vertically stacked and
weakening, the main weather hazard will be scattered snow showers
as upper level shortwaves rotate around the low. It will be
difficult to pinpoint exactly where and when these snow showers
will occur, but overall snow amounts should be light. For now, it
seems like interior Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula stand
the best chance of seeing some light snow accumulations late
tonight through Monday. Otherwise, expect light winds, cloudy
skies, and for temperatures to stay fairly similar over the next
several days as lows largely remain out of Southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

The main weather hazards through Monday continue to be small
craft winds, heavy freezing spray, and occasional snow/rain
showers. A broad low near the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay is
leading to northerly flow across much of the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands. The resultant cold air advection is increasing
the threat of heavy freezing spray in the northern Bering and
along the Southwest coast, as well as leading to snow and rain
showers across the region.

A bit of a pattern change arrives Monday evening as a low pushes
its front into the Western Bering and Western Aleutians. A surface
low is expected to form off this front and skirt along the
Aleutian Chain, reaching the Eastern Aleutians by Wednesday
afternoon. Model differences worsen by early Wednesday morning,
so it's difficult to say, for now, what exactly to expect with
this system. With the low weakening as it moves east, and with
newer guidance suggesting a track that will keep it further to the
south, it's possible this low won't have much of an impact except
for gusty small craft winds, slight warming, and increased
rain/snow chances along the Aleutian Islands.

$$.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Looking into the extended forecast, the active weather pattern
that both the Bering Sea/Aleutians, Southwest, and Southcentral
Alaska has experienced in the near to short-term looks to continue
through the long-term as well. Overall ensemble guidance and
deterministic guidance is in decent agreement that the entire
domain remains withing the influence of the upper trough pattern
that has been the status-quo of late. While there is general
agreement on the upper synoptic long-term pattern, surface
features and their evolutions (timing, track,
precipitation/precipitation type) remain up for debate.

The pattern for the Bering and Aleutians features an upper level
low complex that remains nearly stationary as it spins in the
western Bering Sea Wednesday through Saturday. Multiple shortwaves
rotate cyclonically around the complex and draw up Pacific
moisture from the south and southwest. The forecast challenge will
be nailing down where surface low pressures might spin up in
response to the various shortwaves as well as cold air
availability. The synoptic pattern supports an active and wet
western to central Bering/Aleutian Chain with not quite as active
of a pattern for Southwest. Although, there will be shortwave
troughs that move in from the Bering; especially for Thursday and
Friday. The North Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula looks to
stay on the active side mostly due to moist southerly to
southeasterly upslope flow. Odds tilt that temperatures as well
as precipitation will around normal for Southwest and the Bering
Sea/Aleutians, regardless of the continued active weather pattern.

The pattern for Southcentral features continued southerly to
southeasterly moist flow which will keep coastal sections of
Southcentral unsettled. A notable potential surface feature that
will need to be watched will be a Gulf of Alaska low near Kodiak
Island that has the potential to bring a storm-force barrier jet
with it to the northern Gulf Coast. Another feature of note which
has decent guidance agreement is a negatively tilted trough which
extends from an upper level Bering low that will enter the Gulf
during the day on Saturday. Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula will need to follow the progression of the forecast
regarding this feature for possible impacts down the line.
Ultimately, the general long-term synoptic pattern favors an
active coastal Southcentral; especially western Prince William
Sound and eastern Kenai Peninsula with odds leaning slightly
towards above average precipitation. Meanwhile, interior areas
look to have normal precipitation with not quite as much activity
as the coast due to potential cross-barrier downslope flow.
Temperatures look to be around normal for Kodiak Island, the
Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su Valleys, and Anchorage, while odds tilt to
slightly above normal temperatures for Prince William Sound
communities and the Copper River Basin.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: 131.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY: 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CQ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
LONG TERM...CJ