Gale Warning 155, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Feb 16, 2023, 3:05 PM AKST (00:05 UTC)

Expired

Feb 17, 2023, 3:45 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

550 
FZAK52 PAFC 170005
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171245-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 963 mb low 140 nm north of Shemya moves 330 nm north of Shemya at 
987 mb Sat afternoon. A 977 mb low 65 nm south of Saint Paul Island 
moves over Nunivak Island at 974 mb Thu night and then moves inland 
Fri morning. A 980 mb low 100 nm northwest of Cold Bay Fri night 
moves 100 nm southwest of Dillingham at 985 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-171245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Snow.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171245-
Bristol Bay-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Freezing
spray early.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. From Port Moller E, seas 9
ft building to 18 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight, Seas 9
ft building to 16 ft after midnight. From Port Moller E, E wind 25 
kt, Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171245-
Unalaska Bay-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 50 kt before midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Gusts to
55 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. 
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171245-
Adak to Kiska-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171245-
Kiska to Attu-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SW 50 kt after midnight. 
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt.
.MON...S wind 25 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ181-171245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Snow.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-171245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
305 PM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... E 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 16, 8:52 AM AKST, 6 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
852 AM AKST Thu Feb 16 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An amplified pattern continues across the region with a
southwesterly 157 kt jet draped across the central Aleutians and
riding along the peripheral of a ridge located over Southwest.
This jet stream is drawing substantial sub-tropical moisture from
the Pacific and pulling it northwards across the central Aleutians
and Pribilof Islands today and will eventually work its way into
Southwest Alaska this evening/tonight. Winter Weather Advisories
for the Kuskokwim Delta and for Bristol Bay, north and west of King
Salmon have been issued as a result, see the short- term forecast
for Southwest Alaska for more information. Meanwhile, a front is
noticed on radar tracking into the Southwest early this morning
with light snowfall reported along the coastline.

Out east, low stratus and patchy fog is being observed on
Nighttime Microphysics across the Copper River Basin, portions of
Knik Arm, and western Kenai peninsula. Higher-level clouds are
also noticed spanning across Kodiak and making their way northward
clipping the Kenai Peninsula early this morning as an occluded
front traverses through the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to be in decent agreement with synoptic scale
features, but are still struggling with the finer details.
Consensus is that a triple point low will form along a front
pushing through Southwest near the southern tip of the Kenai
Peninsula Friday morning. However, model spread grows where the
aforementioned low will track. The GFS seems to be the outlier
with keeping the progression of the low low slower than other
models and deepening the low further south as well. The Canadian
seems to be the middle ground for the GFS and NAM and deepens the
low, but brings it further north towards Prince William Sound like
the NAM but not as extreme. The position of this low will impact
the overall winds and snow totals across Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A shortwave producing light snow showers and lower
ceilings will continue to produce MVFR to IFR conditions and will
persist through the morning. Ceilings should gradually increase
through the day with light northerly winds persisting.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday night)...

A short-wave moving over top of a building ridge will just clip
Southcentral today, producing some light snow primarily inland
over the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. A stronger short-
wave near the central Aleutians this morning, will amplify as it
tracks to Southwest Alaska this evening, then split with some
of the energy lifting northward across western Alaska and some
pushing into Southcentral and the northern Gulf late tonight
through Friday. Meanwhile, a surface low will form over the
eastern Bering, with a frontal system tracking eastward into the
Gulf. A triple point low will then develop and track somewhere
across the northern Gulf. The track of this low is the biggest
area of uncertainty in the forecast, so stay tuned as the wind
direction forecast for the northern Gulf coastal waters could
require significant changes, depending on whether the low hugs
the north Gulf coast or tracks further south over the Gulf waters.

Fortunately, this low track will have minimal impact on the
weather for Southcentral. The strength of the upper level short-
wave (despite splitting) combined with abundant moisture transport
and a shift in low level winds from southeasterly to southwesterly
as the system moves through will bring snow to all of Southcentral.
GUsty east to southeast winds will develop ahead of the frontal
system tonight, primarily affecting the eastern Kenai Peninsula.
With a cold airmass in place, snow will be fairly low density and
easily blown around. Thus, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory
for blowing snow, including the Seward Highway corridor. As snow
overspreads the region tonight, the strong cross barrier flow
will lead to some downslope drying, with flurries or very light
snow at best in the lee of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains.
However, flow will quickly shift around to southwest Friday
morning, which will then bring steady accumulating snow to the
western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Matanuska Valley. This storm
will move through fairly quickly, so snowfall amounts will
generally be light. Snow will taper off Friday afternoon and
evening.

The break will be brief as another short-wave takes a similar
track Friday night through Saturday night. This short-wave looks
quite a bit weaker, though there are a lot of similarities with
frontal system, triple point low, and evolution of low level
flow across Southcentral. Thus, expect another round of snow
for Southcentral Saturday through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday night)...

A surface front dissipates over the Kuskokwim Delta coast and
Bristol Bay coast this morning. The next system of note is an
upper-level trough and associated surface low that pivot across
Southwest Alaska beginning later today. The low will extend its
front across the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon before lifting to
the Southwest Mainland coast by this evening. Snow, gusty winds,
and reduced visibilities are expected to accompany the front as it
traverses the region, where degraded conditions will progress
inland from south to north through the night. Thus, Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol
Bay, particularly north and west of King Salmon, for this evening
through Friday morning. The main front pushes north of the area
on Friday morning and steady snow will turn to snow showers while
visibility improves. The system will continue to exit into the
Northern Mainland for the remainder of Friday. On Friday
afternoon, another system is advertised to approach the Alaska
Peninsula from the North Pacific. The low feature will likely
track northward across the Southwest Mainland for most of
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 3: Tonight
through Saturday night)...

A large low pressure system remains centered just to the west of
the Western Aleutians and Bering as it extends its front into
Southwest Alaska this morning. The low will very slowly drift into
the Western Bering through the short term period. A new low is
expected to develop near the Central and Eastern Aleutians today
and will bring precipitation and elevated winds to these areas, as
well as the Pribilof Islands. The low looks to track across the
Pribilof Islands this evening before lifting to the northeast to
the Southwest Mainland. On Friday afternoon, another system is
advertised to approach the Central and Eastern Aleutians again.
Model agreement with this feature begins to diverge beyond this
time, however there is general consensus for the low to enter the
southern Bering on Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A broad upper level ridge is expected to move over Southcentral
and Southwest Alaska during the extended period. Ensemble guidance
shows consistency in the ridge-axis extending across the lower
Kuskokwim Valley and across the western Alaska Range. The
orientation of this ridge supports a moderate tilt in the odds in
favor of warmer than normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation across Southwest Alaska. The odds also show a slight
tilt in favor of below normal temperatures across the Copper
Basin, with the strength of the tilt increasing farther east.

Synoptically, a frontal system is likely to move over Southwest
Alaska on Tuesday, though confidence remains low on the position
and orientation of the front at this time which results in low
confidence in the precipitation and precipitation type forecast.

The other concern this forecast period is strong westerly gap flow
through bays and passes across the western Gulf of Alaska on
Monday and Tuesday. Heavy freezing spray will likely be associated
with these strong gap winds due to cold air advection being
expected at the same time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 125, 155, 161.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119-120, 130-132, 138-139, 150, 155, 160,
		 			   165, 170-179, 185, 351-352, 411, 413.
		 Storm Warning: 180, 414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning:185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NSC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF
LONG TERM...ED

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2023Every gale warning in 2023

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.