Tornado Warning 3, NWS Aberdeen, SD

263 
WWUS53 KABR 102241
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
541 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

SDC013-115-102250-
/O.CAN.KABR.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230810T2300Z/
Brown SD-Spink SD-
541 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWN AND NORTH CENTRAL SPINK
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4519 9822 4522 9824 4525 9818 4521 9814
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 249DEG 6KT 4523 9819 

$$

Wise

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
214 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

The forecast challenges include:

1. severe storms potential now through late this evening

2. severe storms potential Friday afternoon across far northeast
   South Dakota and west central Minnesota

At 2 PM CDT, skies range from partly cloudy to mostly sunny and
temperatures are warming through the 70s and 80s. Winds are
generally out of the south or southeast, except west of a cold front
that is beginning to push east river. West of this cold front, winds
are switching around and blowing out of the northwest. There are a
few light rain showers out over north central South Dakota.

Still looking like a decent severe weather setup for this
afternoon/early evening, despite the broken to, at times, overcast
mid/high level clouds around the region. The cloudiness may just
delay the onset timing of things a little bit. There seem to be two
distinct regions of convective potential/concern over the CWA this
afternoon/evening; the first being the warm frontal zone over the
northeast corner of the CWA, associated with a lead shortwave
currently spinning/working toward the James River valley region. The
second area of concern is along a weak cold front/surface trof that
is about to push east of the Missouri River valley. This boundary
has the PVA axis to work with from a second shortwave seen in Water
Vapor pushing in across the western Dakotas at this time.

Starting to see a dent getting made in the weak thermal capping
inversion in place (~ +8C to +10C at 700hpa). That cap erosion
should continue through the afternoon, as the boundary layer heats
up and destabilizes to the tune of ~1500-3000J/kg of MLCAPE and 30
to 40 knots of deep layer shear to work with. Along with an initial
large hail threat, there is a low probability risk of a tornado or
two across the low to mid-level WAA zone of ascent over the
northeastern forecast zones. Not a slam dunk for tor's, 0-3km and 0-
6km shear-wise, but, placement relative to the
developing/approaching sfc low, low level lapse rates, 0-1km shear
and surface vorticity all check boxes for Tor. So, will have to
monitor things if any storms end up developing further east in that
zone of WAA/along the warm front over northeast South Dakota, out
ahead of the cold-frontal forced storms that are expected to be
developing between the Missouri and James River valleys. Not the
best shear environment to turn storm mode to linear, at least not
until late this evening when a low level jet develops, pointing up
into eastern South Dakota, so perhaps initial discrete supercells
could have a chance to maintain their individuality longer before
transitioning to a couple of small bowing line segments.

On Friday, there could be a few showers and thunderstorms strafing
the northeast corner of the CWA during the early to mid-afternoon
hours. Friday's convective potential consists of strong shear
(potentially 50 knots of deep layer shear), but not-so-strong
instability (perhaps only upwards of 750-1250J/kg of MLCAPE.
Continued PoPs for that area of the CWA on Friday.

Temperatures through Friday night should be running fairly close to
normal for early August.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

West to northwest flow will persist aloft through much of the
extended. The first chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms
is expected Saturday night into Sunday as an upper trough digs into
the northern Plains with abundant associated shortwave energy. The
sfc low over the central plains will lend some forcing...though much
of that will be directed toward southeast SD and northwest IA.

Sfc high pressure builds in behind the sfc low on Sunday across
central SD and eventually spreads east. A building upper ridge may
take a bit longer to transition, but should influence heights by
late Monday. The remainder of the time period looks mostly dry
though, due to model inconsistency, confidence is low by the middle
of next week for pops.

Temperatures will remain near or below average through the extended
with highs only around normal in the 80s to lower 90s under the
ridge early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through the next 24 hours. Storms
are forecast to form and be on the increase late this
afternoon/evening, mainly for KABR/KATY. IFR conditions (mainly
visbies) are possible with the storms, along with torrential
rainfall, large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Dorn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
351 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-110900-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
351 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 /251 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front crossing the region later this afternoon will bring
scattered shower and thunderstorms. The storms may develop along
Highway 83 after 3 pm CDT, and progress eastward through the evening
hours. Some storms may be capable of producing golf ball size hail
and 60 mph winds. Cannot rule out a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon over
northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. Quarter size hail
and 60 mph winds will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

SD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
519 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 NNW Wetonka           45.71N 98.81W
08/10/2023  E60 MPH          McPherson          SD   Public

            Property blown off patio. Pea-sized hail.
            1.50 inch of rain in appx 30 minutes.

&&

NWS ABR