Wind Advisory 27, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Widespread rain and mountain snow is expected today through Friday,
Significant snow accumulations and winter driving conditions are
likely in the mountains above 9,000 feet while locally slick roads
are possible in lower elevations during brief periods of snow. A
cold front will push westward across the state today into Friday,
resulting in strong northerly winds on the eastern plains this
afternoon and gusty east canyon winds in the Albuquerque metro area
tonight into tomorrow morning. Cooler than average temperatures and
precipitation chances stick around through the weekend. Another
Pacific storm may bring more mountain snow, low elevation rain/snow,
and wind to the state early to mid- next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023

A second and more robust wave of rain and mountain snow will
continue to spread into western and central NM through the morning
as an upstream shortwave trough approaches. Snow levels will remain
quite high through the morning, as evidenced by mid to upper 30s deg
F dewpoint readings (even 33 F at KAXX as of 0800UTC). This will
mean a heavy, wet snow for areas between 8,000 and 9,500 ft, turning
to a higher snow-to-liquid ratio above 10,000 ft through the
morning. Precip will be focusing over the northeastern quadrant of
NM through the day with some rain expected to change to snow this
afternoon at some lower elevations between 7,000 to 8,000 feet to
include Las Vegas to Raton and the highlands around Des Moines and
Capulin. With high temperatures expected to reach the low 40’s deg F
in these areas, do not anticipate a great deal of snow accumulation
on roads, but a brief 1 to 2 hour burst of afternoon snow with very
low visibility will be possible along the upper I-25 corridor and
parts of U.S. 64/87. Most of the precip in northeast NM will be
largely driven by frontogenetical forcing and then also some upslope
that will develop on the east faces of the Sangres toward the late
afternoon. The backdoor front will also be responsible for a tight
packing of isobars across northeast and eventually east central NM
this afternoon with gusty north winds. This has prompted the
issuance of a Wind Advisory for east central zones and it might need
to be expanded into Union county. Elsewhere, faint lift from the
decaying perturbations aloft will keep showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms going over western and central zones this afternoon.

Into tonight, the front will spill westward beyond the central
mountain chain, through the Rio Grande valley and upslope over the
Continental Divide. This will usher in gusty east canyon winds,
especially for eastern Albuquerque where gusts of 35 to 45 mph could
occur overnight and into Friday morning. Upslope flow will keep snow
going over the east faces of the central mountain chain overnight
with a slow downward trend in precip rates. The upslope will then
cause precip to spread to the Continental Divide early Friday
morning. Have not expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to these
central and west central highland/mountains zones, but the day shift
today will need to reconsider, as a couple inches of snow
accumulation will be possible.

The east canyon wind will diminish late Friday morning, but precip
will get a second wind later in the day, mainly over west central to
north central areas where another upstream shortwave trough will be
arriving. Forecast models have been extremely fickle with this
feature and now depict it as being considerably sharper and more
potent than 24 hours ago. Enough cooling aloft could keep things
unstable enough for a few more claps of thunder Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will be significantly cooler than average by 15 to 20
degrees in many zones Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Some lingering snow showers are possible in the high terrain of
northern New Mexico through Friday night. Low-level moisture will
still be in place from the backdoor front that pushed trough, but
models disagree whether or not another weak shortwave will push in
from the west and provide the forcing to generate some orographic
precipitation. Guidance has been struggling to come to a consensus
about what will happen this weekend. PoPs have jumped up and down
with the last few forecast packages and this one is no different.
The main plume of Pacific moisture will have shifted south over
Mexico on Saturday, but there are some indications that a surface
high over central Texas will redirect the moisture into New Mexico
at the same time that mid and high level moisture streams in from
the west. The difference between 10th and 90th percentile dewpoints
exceeds 10 degrees throughout the state over the weekend due to the
uncertainty of how far north the Pacific moisture will reach into
the state. South central areas will be favored for precipitation
given their proximity to the moisture source.

On Monday, winds will switch back to westerly at all levels as yet
another swath of Pacific moisture is advected inland. Models are in
good agreement that another trough will move down the west coast of
California, but there is still some disagreement on how deep the
trough will be and how quickly it will move inland. On Monday and
Tuesday, precipitation chances favor western and northern New Mexico
given that the European and Canadian ensemble mean PWATs are 200-
250% of normal in these areas. There are indications that the
moisture will spread further south and east by the middle of the
week, but that is dependent on the trough moving southward into the
desert southwest. In addition, temperatures have trended warmer
during this time period, but precipitation type will still likely be
diurnally driven as snow levels fluctuate between 5-6kft at night
and 8-9kft during the day. As the Pacific trough pushes inland on
Tuesday and Wednesday, 700 mb wind speeds will increase across the
state, translating to an uptick in wind speeds at the surface
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023

A mixed-bag of VFR to LIFR conditions prevail across the area,
with areas of showers and mountain obscurations. Some improvement
is forecast across western NM this afternoon, but rapid
deterioration is expected this evening as a backdoor cold front
surges westward through the central mountain chain and brings a
gusty east canyon/gap wind to KABQ. An Airport Weather Warning
for KABQ will likely be required for gusts to between 35-40kts
overnight. The backdoor front should reach KROW around 21Z and
will bring northerly winds gusts to between 35-40kts. Mountain
obscurations will become widespread overnight. Improvement Friday
morning will be slow at best.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2023

The jet stream will remain active, continuously meandering off of
the eastern Pacific and ushering in moisture to the American
Southwest over the next several days. A long stretch of well below
normal temperatures and periodic bouts of precipitation will
preclude the development of any critical fire weather conditions.
The next time frame of concern will be Tuesday into Wednesday of
next week when stronger winds become widespread across a large
portion of NM. However, even with these stronger winds, temperatures
appear to remain slightly below normal with the potential for
additional showers that could limit the development of any kind of
threatening fire weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  25  46  24 /  50   5  10   0
Dulce...........................  44  21  40  19 /  80  40  40  10
Cuba............................  43  22  37  20 /  80  50  50  10
Gallup..........................  47  25  44  22 /  50  30  30   0
El Morro........................  44  24  40  22 /  50  50  50  10
Grants..........................  50  22  42  20 /  30  50  60  10
Quemado.........................  48  26  45  26 /  30  30  40  20
Magdalena.......................  53  27  41  28 /  20  50  60  40
Datil...........................  48  26  43  26 /  20  40  50  30
Reserve.........................  53  25  50  27 /  20  10  30  10
Glenwood........................  55  34  54  33 /  20   5  20  10
Chama...........................  39  17  34  14 /  90  60  50  20
Los Alamos......................  45  23  35  24 /  80  70  50  10
Pecos...........................  44  18  33  19 /  90  80  50  10
Cerro/Questa....................  40  18  34  20 /  90  80  30  20
Red River.......................  33  15  29  11 /  90  80  50  30
Angel Fire......................  36  10  31   6 /  90  80  50  30
Taos............................  43  18  36  17 /  80  80  30  10
Mora............................  39  13  33  13 /  90  80  40  10
Espanola........................  49  25  40  25 /  80  70  40   5
Santa Fe........................  46  22  38  23 /  80  80  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  52  20  41  21 /  70  80  50  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  29  42  32 /  60  70  40  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  31  44  31 /  50  60  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  27  46  30 /  40  60  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  29  44  29 /  50  60  30  10
Belen...........................  61  29  48  29 /  30  50  50  30
Bernalillo......................  56  28  43  29 /  50  70  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  61  27  47  27 /  30  60  30  20
Corrales........................  56  29  44  28 /  50  60  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  61  28  47  26 /  30  50  40  20
Placitas........................  53  26  41  29 /  60  80  40  20
Rio Rancho......................  55  29  43  29 /  50  60  30  10
Socorro.........................  63  33  48  32 /  20  40  50  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  21  36  24 /  60  80  60  20
Tijeras.........................  49  24  39  26 /  60  80  70  20
Edgewood........................  49  20  37  24 /  60  80  60  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  19  39  20 /  60  80  60  20
Clines Corners..................  46  17  35  20 /  70  80  60  20
Mountainair.....................  51  21  39  24 /  40  70  60  30
Gran Quivira....................  52  23  40  25 /  40  60  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  58  28  46  31 /  50  50  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  50  17  39  22 /  60  60  50  10
Capulin.........................  35  11  34  15 /  90  30   5  10
Raton...........................  40  15  38  16 /  80  40  10  10
Springer........................  44  17  40  18 /  80  40  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  43  15  34  15 /  80  70  30   5
Clayton.........................  40  18  40  20 /  80   5   0   0
Roy.............................  46  18  38  19 /  80  30   5   5
Conchas.........................  53  24  46  24 /  80  20  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  56  25  43  26 /  70  30  30   5
Tucumcari.......................  54  23  47  23 /  70  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  24  47  26 /  40  10   0   0
Portales........................  60  25  48  24 /  30  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  60  26  48  26 /  50  30  10   5
Roswell.........................  71  32  52  33 /  20  30  10   0
Picacho.........................  63  25  45  28 /  20  40  20   5
Elk.............................  59  22  42  25 /  30  40  30   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ230-234>236.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ210-211-
213>215.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ216-227.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for NMZ226-240.

&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11