Wind Advisory 23, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1047 AM MST Sat Mar 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM MST Sat Mar 4 2023

Generally pleasant weather expected today with sunny skies, seasonal
temperatures, and breezy conditions. Things change on Sunday when
high winds target northeastern New Mexico and fire danger sets its
sights on eastern New Mexico. Winds slacken a bit on Monday but will
remain breezy to windy. The unsettled pattern makes its return
around midweek bringing colder and wetter weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM MST Sat Mar 4 2023

Low clouds associated with a cold front appear to be hung up at this
time along the CO-NM border from near Raton Pass eastward. This
boundary will push southward into the state early this morning,
reaching the Tucumcari vicinity before losing momentum. Forecast
models do hint some of the low clouds will seep into northeast NM
this morning, but won't last for long before dissipating. Elsewhere,
low clouds or fog are conspicuously absent in the satellite imagery
and observations early this morning and are not expected to be as
noticable as Friday morning with dewpoints several degrees lower
compared to this time 24 hours ago. Otherwise, a band of mid to high
clouds will pass over northern and central NM today into tonight,
followed by thicker high clouds which start to invade western NM
late Sunday.

Breezy to windy conditions this afternoon are expected to be more
widespread but speeds will be sub-advisory. Winds strengthen tonight
over the higher terrain then spread over much of the lower terrain
Sunday. Will leave the High Wind Watch as is for now, because
additional or adjacent zones may need Wind Advisories as well on
Sunday.

Temperatures today will be warmer except for the northeast and east
central which will be a few degrees cooler. The east on Sunday will
be about 5 to nearly 20 degrees warmer than today, with the central
and west warmer by a few degrees. Overnight lows will be above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM MST Sat Mar 4 2023

Tightly wound flow aloft and persistent lee-side troughing will
allow for breezy to windy conditions to return on Monday, though not
nearly to the extent felt on Sunday. A backdoor boundary sagging
into the eastern plains overnight will cool those locales down a few
degrees, while elsewhere sees another few degrees of warming.
Meanwhile, swirling low off the coast of the PacNW will attempt to
drift inland as its energy is absorbed by another closed low
upstream. Pressure heights above NM begin falling in response and
things begin to cool down Tuesday. The amplified jet begins to sag
further south on Wednesday as the closed low tours the west coast
into NorCal. While it does, a backdoor front is kicked off down
the Great Plains, setting its sights on eastern NM. This would
bring cooler temperatures and increased precipitation through the
latter portion of the week. It's around this point that models
diverge dramatically, however, and as such, didn't stray too far
from the NBM in regards to temperatures or PoPs from Wednesday
forward. Cooler air would remain in residence through the
remainder of the week, keeping temperatures below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM MST Sat Mar 4 2023

Low clouds in northeastern New Mexico are eroding away, giving
way to VFR conditions across the forecast area. High cirrus
clouds will stream into the state this afternoon with mid level
batches moving into northern areas this evening. Breezy
conditions develop this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 30 kt
possible, especially near and north northeast of high terrain
areas. Breezes will subside around sunset this evening, however a
strong jet will be nosing inland off of the Pacific and this will
cause winds aloft to strengthen overnight. New Mexico ridgetops
and peaks will turn gusty tonight with low level wind shear also
developing around nearby areas and continuing through mid morning
Sunday. By late morning and more-so into Sunday afternoon, strong
winds will mix down to the surface with gusty conditions
expanding over much of northern and central New Mexico. Gusts of
25 to 40 kt will be common, but speeds will be strongest along the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos and nearby northeastern
highlands where gusts of 50 kt cannot be ruled out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM MST Sat Mar 4 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

Warmer and drier for most areas today, except the northeast and east
central where a cold front will make a brief appearance this
morning, cooling high temperatures a few degrees and boosting
minimum humidities 5-10 percent. Although portions of the west and
east will experience breezy to windy conditions this afternoon,
southwest to west ridgetop winds strengthen tonight and Sunday while
spreading to the lower terrain by Sunday afternoon. Strong southwest
to west winds, humidities below 15 percent and above normal
temperatures will lead to widespread critical fire weather
conditions over much of eastern NM Sunday late morning through the
afternoon. Critical conditions may also make a 1-3 hour appearance
in the Middle RGV Sunday afternoon.

Widespread thicker high clouds Monday may help keep winds lower but
it will still be quite dry over the eastern plains and
central/northeast highlands. Winds could be strong enough for
critical conditions to develop Monday afternoon from the Clines
Corners area northeast to Raton and east towards Roy and Mosquero
in conjunction with warmer than normal highs.

For mid to late week, forecast models are advertising an unsettled
pattern but are a moving target in regards to the day to day
weather. However, a modified arctic airmass has been consistently
progged making intermittent progress west and southward into eastern
New Mexico. Cooler than normal weather appears likely but chances
for precipitation return as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  26  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  20  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  47  23  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  54  27  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  53  25  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  57  24  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  54  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  57  33  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  54  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  56  26  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  60  32  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  17  44  17 /   0   5   5   0
Los Alamos......................  49  31  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  51  29  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  46  23  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  42  22  43  21 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  41  20  42  20 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  46  24  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  50  28  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  55  24  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  50  27  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  53  29  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  33  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  35  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  28  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  63  33  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  58  31  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  62  30  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  58  32  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  63  31  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  55  32  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  58  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  64  35  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  31  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  54  32  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  54  30  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  25  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  53  29  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  55  32  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  57  34  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  61  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  56  39  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  48  30  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  50  27  64  26 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  52  28  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  53  30  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  51  34  70  29 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  52  32  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  59  34  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  36  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  61  36  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  61  35  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  62  36  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  64  34  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  35  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  65  38  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  64  39  66  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Sunday for NMZ104-123-
125-126.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
NMZ215-227>229.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...52