Wind Advisory 18, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023

Today will be mostly cloudy with slightly above average temperatures
and breezy conditions in the northeast and southwest. A Pacific
storm will bring strong to damaging winds to the state on Sunday,
with hazardous crosswinds and blowing dust creating difficult travel
conditions in most of central and eastern New Mexico. Snow and
blowing snow are possible along a gusty cold front that will cross
the state from west to east during the day. Windy conditions
continue into early next week in eastern New Mexico. Another storm
system may bring more precipitation mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023

The next in a seemingly endless series of upper level troughs/lows
is turning inland over SoCal per the latest water vapor satellite
imagery and was analyzed at around 530dam at 500mb at 00Z. Ahead of
the upper low, the subtropical jetstream is pumping Pacific
moisture up over the region and will result in extensive mid/high
cloudiness today. Warmer temperatures are forecast today as winds
back to the south-southwest and highs are forecast above normal most
areas. Low level moisture will invade southeast NM overnight and
result in low stratus and potentially some fog across Curry and
Roosevelt Counties. Winds aloft will be on the uptrend tonight as
the upper low picks up speed and advances east into AZ. The upper
low is forecast to accelerate east across NM Sunday, pushing a
Pacific cold front across the state. Precipitation chances with this
system will be highest across the mountains and areas along/west of
the Continental Divide. Several inches of snow are likely in the
northern and western mountains and an advisory may be required for
the Tusas and southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains, but this system
will be a quick-hitter which will significantly limit snow amounts.
The bigger impact will definitely be the strong to potentially
damaging winds. All the right ingredients will be in place to hit
our wind speed forecast including a deepening lee side trough with a
lee side low over southeast CO near 988mb, an impressive pressure
gradient with rapidly rising pressure after fropa, strong winds
aloft with 700mb speeds up to 70kts, possible gust enhancement from
showers and timing of the passage coinciding with max heating/mixing
across eastern NM. Gusts along/east of the central mountain chain to
between 65-75mph will be common Sunday afternoon. Will keep the High
Wind Watch in place with no changes. Blowing dust is likely Sunday
afternoon as well, mainly across the eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023

There is some uncertainty in regard to how late into the night
strong winds will continue in eastern New Mexico. While the
strongest 700 mb winds will already be over west Texas, the strong
surface gradient in place due to the lee trough over southeast
Colorado may keep 30-40 mph winds going through the night in the
central highlands and along the east slopes of the central
mountain chain. A few orographically enhanced snow showers will
continue into the overnight in northern New Mexico, but the dry
airmass behind the cold front should end any precipitation by
Monday morning.

Dry westerly flow will continue Monday into Tuesday, allowing for
strong breezes to develop each afternoon, particularly in eastern
New Mexico. A shortwave with decent moisture may skirt northern NM
on Tuesday, generating scattered mountain snow showers, but little
in the way of accumulation is expected. A deeper trough will likely
impact the area Wednesday and Thursday, bringing more widespread
precipitation and an uptick in winds. Guidance is trending towards a
slightly deeper storm that would place the jet max and associated
strong winds well south of the CWA. However, a deeper storm would
bring an unseasonably cold airmass into the region. 700 mb
temperatures may drop below -10C, allowing for snow down to valley
floors. While snowfall totals are still uncertain at this time,
precipitation will once again favor western and northern New Mexico.
Below average temperatures and breezy conditions are expected to
persist through the end of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023

Considerable mid to high clouds persist over nrn and central NM
in advance of an upper low centered off SoCal at 17Z. Clouds to
diminish from nw to se over the state aft 26/00Z as the upper low
and associated cold front start to advance ewd, reaching wrn NM by
26/15Z and racing into central NM around 26/18Z. Low clouds and
isold br may advance into sern NM impacting KROW and KCVS aft
26/10Z but should exit aft 26/15Z as conditions deteriorate over
wrn NM in MVFR cigs/vsbys in snow showers, blsn and bldu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2023

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO VERY STRONG WINDS...

An upper level low and associated Pacific cold front will race east
across the region Sunday, bringing another round of strong winds to
the state. This system will also bring chances for wetting
precipitation, with the best chances in the mountains and west of
the Continental Divide. Unusually strong winds and above normal
temperatures will bring a threat for critical fire weather condtions
to the eastern plains on Sunday, where a Fire Weather Watch is in
effect. Moderate to strong westerly flow on Mon/Tue will result in
downslope winds across eastern NM and the potential for critical
fire weather conditions, especially Tuesday. Moisture will trend up
Wed/Thu as another upper level trough/low approaches and passes over
the state, bringing a bout of strong winds and more chances for
wetting precipitation. Windy conditions may persist Fri/Sat,
especially across eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  29  42  21 /   0   5  50   0
Dulce...........................  51  23  39  11 /   0  10  80  10
Cuba............................  51  29  40  16 /   0   0  60   5
Gallup..........................  56  27  36  18 /   0  10  70   0
El Morro........................  54  28  35  18 /   0   0  70   0
Grants..........................  57  24  39  14 /   0   0  50   0
Quemado.........................  57  29  36  17 /   0   5  70   0
Magdalena.......................  62  36  45  23 /   0   5  30   0
Datil...........................  58  30  37  19 /   0   5  40   0
Reserve.........................  59  27  38  12 /   0   5  80   0
Glenwood........................  63  33  41  22 /   5   5  80   0
Chama...........................  45  22  36   9 /   0  10  90  10
Los Alamos......................  51  34  43  22 /   0   5  70  10
Pecos...........................  54  32  46  22 /   0   5  70  10
Cerro/Questa....................  49  32  41  19 /   0   0  60   5
Red River.......................  44  26  36  12 /   0   5  70  10
Angel Fire......................  46  26  39  11 /   0   5  70  20
Taos............................  51  28  43  13 /   0   5  50   5
Mora............................  54  33  46  20 /   0   0  60   5
Espanola........................  58  30  50  22 /   0   5  50   5
Santa Fe........................  53  33  46  23 /   5   5  70  20
Santa Fe Airport................  56  31  48  21 /   0   5  60  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  41  50  28 /   5   5  50   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  37  52  25 /   5   5  40   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  35  54  23 /   5   5  40   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  35  51  24 /   5   5  40   0
Belen...........................  64  35  54  22 /   0   5  30   0
Bernalillo......................  61  35  52  25 /   5   5  50   5
Bosque Farms....................  63  33  54  20 /   0   0  30   0
Corrales........................  61  34  52  25 /   5   5  40   0
Los Lunas.......................  63  32  54  21 /   0   5  30   0
Placitas........................  58  38  49  26 /   5   5  50   5
Rio Rancho......................  60  35  51  25 /   5   5  40   0
Socorro.........................  69  38  55  24 /   0   0  30   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  36  45  23 /   5   5  60   5
Tijeras.........................  57  37  47  24 /   5   5  60   5
Edgewood........................  57  33  48  22 /   5   0  70   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  60  29  49  20 /   0   0  60   5
Clines Corners..................  57  34  47  20 /   0   5  60   5
Mountainair.....................  60  36  47  22 /   0   0  50   0
Gran Quivira....................  61  36  47  22 /   0   0  40   5
Carrizozo.......................  65  44  52  26 /   0   5  30   0
Ruidoso.........................  61  41  48  25 /   0  10  40   0
Capulin.........................  62  36  54  24 /   0   0  20   0
Raton...........................  63  30  56  21 /   0   0  20   0
Springer........................  64  31  57  21 /   0   0  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  60  33  53  24 /   0   5  40   5
Clayton.........................  68  39  63  29 /   0   0  20   0
Roy.............................  62  36  58  26 /   0   0  20   0
Conchas.........................  66  40  63  29 /   0   5  30   0
Santa Rosa......................  64  38  62  30 /   0   5  40   5
Tucumcari.......................  68  42  69  29 /   5  10  30   0
Clovis..........................  62  40  68  30 /   0  10  30   5
Portales........................  62  41  69  31 /   0  10  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  61  41  64  31 /   5  10  30   5
Roswell.........................  64  44  67  29 /   0   5  10   0
Picacho.........................  66  44  63  30 /   0   5  10   0
Elk.............................  67  44  58  29 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for NMZ212-215-221>240.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for NMZ104-123-125-126.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
NMZ208-219-220-241.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...99