Wind Advisory 16, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
259 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2023

A widespread and damaging high wind winter storm is on track to
impact nearly all of northern and central NM Wednesday. Strong
westerly winds across eastern NM today will be a teaser for winds
reaching 40 to 50 mph with gusts upwards of 70 to 80+ mph
Wednesday afternoon. The strongest of these winds looks to impact
the south- central mountains near Ruidoso. Snow and blowing snow
producing blizzard conditions will focus through the southwestern
mountains, with shorter-lived blizzard conditions through the
western and northern high terrain. Accumulations of 10 to 20
inches is forecast generally above 8,500 feet through western and
northern NM, with lesser amounts of a dusting up to 4 to 6 inches
through valley areas of western, northern and central NM. The
eastern plains will miss out on snow. Widespread travel impacts
are expected from winter weather. Conditions improve Wednesday
night into Thursday morning with a relative break in the weather
lasting through Saturday. The next less impactful winter storm
system looks to reach the forecast area Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2023

...RARE AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...

Forecast confidence remains high that a very rare winter storm will
impact NM on Wednesday with extreme winds, periods of heavy snow in
the high terrain, widespread blowing snow, and significant blowing
dust. First, an unseasonably moist fetch of subtropical moisture
will stream northeast with a 700-500mb layer jet strengthening to
near 60kt over eastern NM. Surface low pressure will deepen to near
987mb over southeast CO and allow surface winds to increase along
and east of the central mt chain. Widespread Wind Advisory speeds
are in store with perhaps a localized gust near 60 mph along the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Deep moisture surging north
with the subtropical jet will continue to spread rain showers toward
the I-40 corridor by late day. CAMs indicate enough instability for
a a couple of storms as well around the RGV and nearby high terrain.

H5 pressure heights will fall quickly tonight as an exceptionally
rare 520dm H5 low deepens across the Great Basin. This system is
outside the NAEFS 30-year climo and the airmass ahead of the wave
remains moist with GEFS PW values +2 to +3 stdev above climo. Rain
and high terrain snow will spread to all west-facing slopes by this
evening with snow levels falling to around 6,500' from west to east
thru sunrise. Meanwhile, 700-500mb layer winds increase to btwn 80
and 100kt across southwest NM. Surface wind gusts from the ECMWF
Extreme Forecast Index are maxed out for late February going back 21
years. All these extremes will come together Wednesday to produce a
widespread, high impact weather event for NM. Wind gusts of 65 to 85
mph are expected from the high terrain of the Gila Wilderness across
Lincoln County into portions of eastern NM where damage is likely to
trees, powerlines, and lightweight structures. High profile vehicles
and cargo trains may be toppled. Blowing dust may reduce visibility
below one-half mile at times downwind of dust prone locations with
potential for Dust Storm Warnings. Even areas farther north toward
the ABQ metro and Sandia/Manzanos may see wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph
as a powerful Pacific front surges in from the west.

The Pacific cold front will bring a period of intense snowfall rates
to the western high terrain as it marches east across the Cont Dvd
Wednesday. 700mb temps fall to near -14C with the front which will
enhance areas of blowing snow and freeze any wet surfaces quickly
Wednesday evening. Winter Storm Warnings have been expanded to more
of northern and western NM with widespread High Wind Warnings across
central and eastern NM. Several hours with blizzard conditions are
possible in the Gila and in the higher terrain outside of Ruidoso.
Blizzard messaging will be handled in the Winter Storm Warning for
simplicity sake with upgrades possible from further coordination
with surrounding offices and WPC.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2023

The high wind winter storm system quickly exits the area
Wednesday night with the main 80-90kt H7 jetmax falling back to
40-50kts over New Mexico. The high wind threat will subside
overnight into Thursday morning as a result. Snow and
precipitation will also end as the main upper level dynamics exit
the area with mainly orographically driven snow through the
western and northwestern high terrain. Upper level flow turns
southwesterly through the day Thursday with a synoptic scale
troughing pattering remaining over the western CONUS. This will
keep persistent chances for snow going through the northwestern
high terrain. High temperatures Thursday will be little changed
from Wednesday’s values, but it should feel warmer given the lower
wind potential. The exception will be Union County where high
temperatures will greatly depend on the placement of the leading
edge of a cold front advancing into the area from the north. High
temperatures across the western and northern NM will also likely
be lower where remnant substantial snowfall remains from
Wednesday’s storm system.

By Friday, the aforementioned cold front near Clayton will advance
southward along the TX border delaying any warmup there. Current
global model solutions are showing the frontal boundary struggling
to advance westward to the Pecos River, so warmer temperatures
look to remain along the Pecos, but only by 5-10F. Models are also
depicting a tongue of low-level Gulf moisture workings its way
northward ahead of the frontal boundary into far southeastern NM.
This could lead to some morning fog or low clouds somewhere from
Roswell to Portales Friday morning. This fog and low cloud
potential looks to repeat Saturday morning. Meanwhile,
southwesterly flow aloft remains favoring limited snow to the
northwestern high terrain in Rio Arriba County. By the weekend,
the synoptic scale troughing pattern over the western CONUS
produces a closed H5 low moving ashore southern CA. Saturday looks
to see fairly pleasant weather ahead of this storm systems arrival
into western NM Saturday night into Sunday morning. Model
solutions currently track the core of this storm system over
northern NM, either opening to a trough or staying closed over CO.
Either solution favors winter precipitation focused along or north
of I-40 with strong winds along and south of I-40 during the day
Sunday. This system does not look as strong as what is currently
forecast for Wednesday. Conditions clear out through the day
Monday to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2023

Winds diminish overnight but return late Tuesday morning and
continue into Tuesday night. Strongest wind gusts will occur
over the western high terrain and the eastern plains Tuesday
afternoon. Mid and high level moisture will continue to stream in
from the southwest overnight and into Tuesday with cigs lowering
to near MVFR over portions of western NM by Tuesday afternoon.
Low level wind shear is likely once again Tuesday morning at KLVS.
A band of wdly sct rain with snow showers above 7,500 ft north
and 9000 ft south move into central and western areas Tuesday
afternoon. These showers are forecast to increase in coverage and
intensity Tuesday evening with the greatest chances for IFR to
LIFR ceilings, visibilities and mt obscurations will be along
southwest facing slopes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2023

A powerful storm system moving across NM today and Wednesday will
lead to widespread strong to possibly damaging winds, blowing dust,
areas of rain, heavy mountain snow and blowing snow, and significant
snow accums in the higher terrain. Southwest winds will be strong
enough to produce critical fire weather conditions today along the
TX border and over northeast NM despite min RH values in the 20 to
25% range. Wind gusts will increase to between 65 and 85 mph into
Wednesday with additional critical fire weather conditions possible
near the TX state line. Farther west, periods of heavy snow will
produce 1 to 2 feet of snow in the northern and western mts thru
Thursday morning. A break in the weather is expected Friday and
Saturday before another storm system moves into the area Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  34  39  21 /   5  50  70  30
Dulce...........................  46  27  35  14 /   5  90 100  60
Cuba............................  48  29  36  14 /  10  60  80  20
Gallup..........................  50  30  34  20 /  20  60  80  30
El Morro........................  48  29  33  16 /  20  40  70  30
Grants..........................  53  28  37  17 /  10  30  60  20
Quemado.........................  52  30  36  20 /  30  40  60  20
Magdalena.......................  56  33  42  21 /  20  20  30   5
Datil...........................  52  30  37  19 /  20  40  50  10
Reserve.........................  53  28  36  22 /  50  80  90  40
Glenwood........................  56  33  40  26 /  70  90  90  50
Chama...........................  39  23  30   8 /  20  90 100  60
Los Alamos......................  51  32  36  18 /  10  70  90  20
Pecos...........................  49  30  40  15 /  10  70  80  20
Cerro/Questa....................  43  30  34  11 /  10  60  90  30
Red River.......................  36  22  29   6 /  10  70 100  40
Angel Fire......................  39  23  32  10 /  10  70  90  40
Taos............................  46  29  35  14 /  10  70  80  20
Mora............................  49  30  40  13 /   5  50  70  10
Espanola........................  56  34  43  21 /   5  50  80  10
Santa Fe........................  49  31  38  16 /  10  80  80  20
Santa Fe Airport................  53  32  41  19 /  10  70  80  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  38  45  21 /  20  60  60   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  37  48  25 /  20  50  50   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  37  49  27 /  20  40  40   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  36  48  24 /  20  50  50   5
Belen...........................  62  37  52  26 /  20  30  30   5
Bernalillo......................  59  37  47  24 /  20  50  60   5
Bosque Farms....................  61  36  50  26 /  20  40  40   5
Corrales........................  59  36  48  24 /  20  50  50   5
Los Lunas.......................  61  36  51  26 /  20  40  30   5
Placitas........................  55  36  45  21 /  20  60  60  10
Rio Rancho......................  58  36  46  23 /  20  50  50   5
Socorro.........................  63  37  52  26 /  20  20  20   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  32  39  16 /  30  70  70  10
Tijeras.........................  54  34  42  19 /  30  70  70  10
Edgewood........................  53  32  44  17 /  20  60  60   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  30  46  18 /  20  60  50   5
Clines Corners..................  52  30  41  19 /  10  60  50  10
Mountainair.....................  54  31  44  20 /  30  50  40   5
Gran Quivira....................  55  32  44  23 /  30  40  40  10
Carrizozo.......................  58  36  44  31 /  30  40  50  20
Ruidoso.........................  52  30  39  29 /  50  60  60  30
Capulin.........................  55  31  47  14 /   0  10  40   0
Raton...........................  57  29  50  16 /   0  10  30   0
Springer........................  60  31  52  19 /   0  10  30   0
Las Vegas.......................  55  32  45  17 /   5  30  50   5
Clayton.........................  66  39  56  21 /   0   0  10   0
Roy.............................  62  36  51  20 /   0  10  20   0
Conchas.........................  69  42  59  26 /   0  10  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  66  39  55  26 /   5  10  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  71  42  60  28 /   0  10   5   0
Clovis..........................  69  40  60  30 /   0  20   0   0
Portales........................  71  42  62  31 /   0  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  70  41  59  29 /   5  10   5   0
Roswell.........................  74  43  64  34 /   5  20   0   0
Picacho.........................  66  39  53  34 /   5  10  10   5
Elk.............................  61  35  49  35 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday
for NMZ201-204-216.

Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
for NMZ104-126.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
for NMZ213>215-223-226>237-239-240.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM MST Thursday for
NMZ207-212-218>225-227>241.

Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday
for NMZ202-203-205-206-208>211-213>215.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM MST Thursday for
NMZ217.

High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday
for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
935 PM MST MON FEB 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 SW EL TURQUILLO       36.06N 105.28W
02/20/2023  E44 MPH          MORA               NM   PUBLIC

            WUNDERMAP - KNMMORA4.

&&

RJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
936 PM MST MON FEB 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  1 SE GASCON             35.87N 105.43W
02/20/2023  M43 MPH          SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

            WUNDERMAP - KNMROCIA22.

&&

RJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
937 PM MST MON FEB 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE ROCIADA            35.82N 105.41W
02/20/2023  M58 MPH          SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

            WUNDERMAP - KNMROCIA7.

&&

RJH