Snow Squall Warning 2, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
428 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2023

The season’s strongest and most damaging storm system rolls across
New Mexico today. Widespread high to damaging winds with gusts
reaching 60 to 80+ mph are expected from this morning through the
entire afternoon. Winter storm to localized blizzard conditions
will also impact much of western and northern NM, as well as the
high terrain of the south-central mountains near Sierra Blanca
Peak. Widespread travel impacts will result, either from blowing
snow and icy roads through western and northern NM or dangerous
crosswinds and blowing dust through eastern NM. Conditions improve
tonight into Thursday morning. Breezy to locally windy conditions
remain Thursday and Friday, but not nearly as strong. After a
break in the weather Saturday, the next winter storm system
arrives Sunday bringing more snow to western and northern NM and
widespread windy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2023

The latest WV loop shows a massive upper level trough over the
western CONUS moving slowly southeast toward the desert southwest.
This system is pulling out all the stops with numerous variables
above the 99th percentile or beyond model climo extremes for late
February. The end yield will be very dangerous weather conditions
for NM today with hurricane force wind gusts, heavy snow, blowing
snow, blowing dust, low visibility, and potential power outages.

A band of moist southwest flow is pushing slowly east into western
NM this morning ahead of the parent H5 low deepening into the Great
Basin. Large scale ascent along this band of moisture has allowed
rain and mt snow showers to develop over much of central and western
NM. Snow levels will plummet to valley bottoms thru early afternoon
as a powerful Pacific cold front marches east. A 700-500mb speed max
near 95 kt is approaching from the west and surface wind gusts have
already exceeded 60 kt in many areas of southern CA, NV, and western
AZ. This speed max will slide east and produce hurricane force wind
gusts over the southern high terrain of NM from late morning to mid
afternoon. HREF, NBM, and MOS numbers support wind gusts peaking in
the 10am to 3pm timeframe with gusts of 75 to 90 mph from the Gila
region into the Sacramento Mts. Gusts of 60 to 75 mph are expected
farther north toward the I-40 corridor, including the Rio Grande
Valley. The combination of snow and extreme winds will result in
whiteout conditions in the Gila Wilderness and the higher terrain
above Ruidoso. Latest QPF and Snow Amounts trended lower for these
areas. While winter impacts are expected in the Ruidoso area the
wind will be of greater concern in population areas while blizzard-
like conditions occur around Sierra Blanca. Large areas of blowing
dust are likely for eastern NM where low visibility, tumbleweeds,
and extreme crosswinds will make travel very dangerous.

Winds will taper off quickly in most areas tonight as colder air
filters in behind the Pacific cold front. West-facing slopes will
still squeeze out some additional snowfall with light to moderate
amounts possible across the north. Winds will remain elevated over
Lincoln County where high winds continue thru midnight. Thursday
will be a much better day however orographic snow showers will
continue across the north and west with breezy conditions areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2023

Southwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over NM Friday with
breezy to locally windy conditions over much of the forecast area
through the afternoon. Orographically driven snow will remain
persistent over the CO San Juans stretching into the Tusas
Mountains in Rio Arriba County during the morning hours. Snow then
looks to end as a weak perturbation embedded within the
northwesterly flow shoots northeastward through the Four Corners
region by the afternoon. Friday night into Saturday morning sees
an increase in mid to high level cloud cover over NM, while an
influx of boundary layer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico advances
into southeastern NM. Model soundings in this area are favoring a
bank of low clouds and potentially fog and light drizzle over De
Baca, Curry, Roosevelt, and Chaves Counties early Saturday morning
thanks to the 40-45F dewpoints that fill into this area of the
state.

By Saturday evening, global model solutions are closing off an H5
upper low over southern CA. This 545dm H5 upper low advances
eastward over AZ through Sunday morning, with precipitation
reaching the NM border by mid-day Sunday. A round of strong
southwesterly winds will reach much of the forecast area with
gusts of 35 to 50 mph common. The center of the upper low quickly
tracks across northern NM moving over the TX Panhandle by Sunday
evening. Any rainfall along and ahead of the Pacific cold front
will quickly transition to snow as H7 temperatures quickly fall
from -4C to -12C behind the front. The timing of the cold front is
such that high temperatures Sunday will likely be mid to late
morning for western and central areas, falling through the
afternoon. This means valley rain along and west of the Rio Grande
Valley will transition to snow or a rain/snow mix through the
afternoon period. Downsloping will cutoff any precipitation
chances east of the central mountain chain. Conditions clear out
with winds decreasing Sunday night, with the exception of the
highlands immediately east of the central mountain chain where
strong westerly winds look to last well overnight.

Zonal flow fills in Monday and Tuesday with breezy to locally
windy conditions each afternoon. Weak upper level perturbations
will bring snow to the northwestern high terrain by Tuesday and
into Wednesday. The active upper level jet pattern persists to
start March producing another storm system rolling through the
Desert Southwest by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2023

A high impact weather event is moving into NM early this morning
with widespread strong to possibly damaging winds thru late this
afternoon. Southwest winds are already increasing over the area
and will strengthen rapidly aft 15Z. Peak gusts of 50 to 65 kt
are likely at all terminals along and south of I-40 and east of
I-25. Areas around KSRR may see gusts in excess of 75 kt between
17Z and 21Z. A band of snow and blowing snow will also march east
with a west wind shift from western NM into the central mt chain
by 20Z. Whiteout conditions are possible for a couple hours in the
northern and western mts with the Pacific cold front. Winds will
taper off quickly this evening but remain breezy all areas thru
sunrise Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2023

Damaging winds, rain, snow, blowing snow, blowing dust, and colder
temperatures are in store the next 24 hours. Marginal critical fire
weather conditions are likely along the TX border due to the extreme
winds. Meanwhile, the northern and western high terrain will see
light to moderate snowfall accums. Thursday will remain breezy and
cool with orographic snow showers continuing across the north and
west. Friday and Saturday will be a bit more tranquil with southwest
breezes and warming temps. The next system will move in from the
west on Sunday with greater snow chances for the north and potential
high winds and critical fire weather across the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  20  40  25 /  80  20  20  20
Dulce...........................  36   8  35  16 / 100  60  50  30
Cuba............................  36  13  37  18 /  80  20  10   0
Gallup..........................  33  16  35  20 /  90  30  10   5
El Morro........................  33  17  36  19 /  80  30  10   0
Grants..........................  37  13  41  17 /  70  20   0   0
Quemado.........................  37  19  41  24 /  60  10   0   0
Magdalena.......................  43  24  46  30 /  20   5   0   0
Datil...........................  36  20  40  25 /  40  10   0   0
Reserve.........................  37  17  40  19 / 100  30  20   0
Glenwood........................  40  26  47  28 /  90  40  20   0
Chama...........................  30   5  28  14 / 100  70  60  30
Los Alamos......................  34  20  38  26 /  80  20   5   0
Pecos...........................  40  16  38  24 /  80  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  36  14  34  22 /  90  30  20   5
Red River.......................  29   5  27  15 / 100  50  30  10
Angel Fire......................  30   3  29  12 /  90  40  40  10
Taos............................  34  10  34  18 /  80  20  10   0
Mora............................  39  14  38  23 /  70  20   0   0
Espanola........................  42  21  44  25 /  70  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  38  18  39  26 /  80  10   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  41  19  41  25 /  70  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  46  26  49  33 /  50   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  25  51  31 /  40   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  23  53  30 /  40   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  48  24  51  29 /  50   5   0   0
Belen...........................  51  22  55  29 /  30   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  48  24  51  29 /  60   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  50  21  54  28 /  40   5   0   0
Corrales........................  49  24  52  29 /  50   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  50  21  54  28 /  40   5   0   0
Placitas........................  44  24  46  30 /  60   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  47  24  51  29 /  50   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  53  26  55  32 /  20   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  40  20  42  29 /  70  10   5   0
Tijeras.........................  43  22  45  30 /  60  10   5   0
Edgewood........................  45  19  45  27 /  60  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  18  47  25 /  50   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  43  17  42  26 /  60  10   0   0
Mountainair.....................  45  21  46  30 /  50   5   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  45  22  46  30 /  40   5   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  45  30  48  35 /  40  10  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  39  25  42  32 /  70  40  20   0
Capulin.........................  46  14  41  23 /  20   5   0   0
Raton...........................  49  13  43  21 /  30   5   0   0
Springer........................  51  15  47  25 /  20   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  44  17  42  25 /  40   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  56  20  48  22 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  51  20  46  29 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  59  25  55  32 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  55  24  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  60  24  56  30 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  62  28  59  31 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  63  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  59  28  57  31 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  65  35  65  35 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  53  32  55  34 /   5   5   0   0
Elk.............................  50  31  53  35 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ201-204-
216.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM MST Thursday
for NMZ207-212-218>225-227>241.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ202-203-205-
206-208>211-213>215.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM MST Thursday for
NMZ217.

High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42

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