Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1213 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Wed May 10 2023

Expanded Wind Advisory to include all of the eastern plains since
the speed maximum aloft is forecast to cross eastern areas during
peak mixing this afternoon. Plains locations will mix near 500 mb.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 148 AM MDT Wed May 10 2023

A Pacific storm system will approach today, bringing strong
southerly winds to much of the area, with areas of blowing dust by
afternoon. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible near
the Texas and Oklahoma borders through this evening. The Pacific
system will move over tonight, bringing showers to the northern
mountains with the potential for a few inches of snow accumulation
across the peaks. Windy conditions will persist into Thursday,
mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. Moisture will
increase over the area this weekend as a backdoor cold front
moves through, bringing cooler conditions and good chances for
showers and storms that will persist into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Wed May 10 2023

Upper low along the SoCal coast has pushed inland via current
satellite imagery and will continue its tour through the Desert
Southwest today. Meanwhile, a lee-side sfc low will deepen to an
impressive 992mb, while above average warmth help to push mixing
heights well near 500mb. This will set the scene for strong
southerly and southwesterly winds this afternoon across northern and
central NM, where gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be common. The
strongest winds look to favor the RGV, and a rogue gust of 55+ mph
cannot be ruled out. Did opt to expand the Wind Advisory a few zones
to the east to account for greater spatial coverage of advisory-
level winds with this fcst package.

Meanwhile, additional moisture and instability will work to fuel a
crop of thunderstorms favoring the northwest plateau and eastern
plains. Most of the storms will trend drier, sporting the threat of
erratic downburst winds. Across the east, however, the potential
exists for a storm or two to become severe. The environment still
lacks adequate shear to suggest that storms will be able to become
organized, with most soundings touting suboptimal values under 35
kts. Nonetheless, the ingredients exist for an ambitious storm to be
capable of damaging winds and large hail before quickly pushing off
into TX.

The low's accompanying Pacific front will slide into the state
Wednesday evening, progging east through the overnight hours. The
upper low swings into CO Wednesday night, allowing for instability,
lift, and moisture for showers and storms to persist across northern
NM. Cooler temperatures will be left in the system's wake on
Thursday and drier air takes hold. Breezy to windy conditions will
return, especially across the northwest plateau to the central mts,
including their adjacent highlands and plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Wed May 10 2023

A few showers may persist from the northern mountains through the
adjacent northeast highlands Thursday night as the upper low
continues slowly northeast into east central CO. Winds aloft will
weaken significantly on Friday, which looks to be the best weather
day of the week with daytime temperatures within a few degrees of
normal.

A significant synoptic pattern change is expected this weekend
that will bring the development of a convoluted Rex Block, with
the upper high setting up over southern British Columbia/WA and a
broad upper low extending from the Great Basin south to over the
Baja Peninsula. This development will bring an end to the recent
warm, dry and windy conditions in favor of moist and cooler
conditions with much less wind for most of the area. Moisture
advection will begin in earnest Friday night and continue through
Saturday as Gulf moisture surges northwest across the area and a
backdoor cold front slides southwest through the state, bringing
good chances for showers and storms and much cooler temperatures.
PWATs are forecast to surge well above normal most areas by late
Saturday. However, instability will be significantly limited by
the cooler airmass moving in behind the backdoor front, especially
by Sunday when storms may be confined to areas along/west of the
Continental Divide. At this time, Saturday looks to be the more
impactful day in terms of the potential for burn scar flooding and
flooding of already swollen creeks and streams from ongoing
snowmelt. In addition, strong east canyon/gap winds will likely
develop late Friday night and continue through Saturday in the Rio
Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys with the passage of the
backdoor front. The Rex Block is forecast to break down early next
week, with a new one forming as another upper high sets up over
NV/UT and the upper low gets confined to over the Baja Peninsula.
Moisture is forecast to linger over the area Mon/Tue, with below
normal daytime temperatures and daily rounds of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Wed May 10 2023

Strong south and southwest winds today will shift out of the
northwest tonight into Thursday morning as a Pacific cold front
crosses. Wind gusts will probably peak near 45 kt across central
areas this afternoon. Airport weather warning for 35 kt gusts has
already verified at KABQ, and will hit more consistently late this
afternoon into the early evening. In addition, scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms are forecast over west central,
northwest, northeast and east central areas this afternoon, with
rain and high terrain snow showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
over the northern mountains tonight (with mountain obscurations).
Storms over western areas will produce mainly dry microbursts
this afternoon and evening with erratic wind gusts potentially
over 45 kt. A mix of wet and dry microbursts are expected across
eastern areas with the wetter cells favoring northeast areas,
where a few severe storms may produce wind gusts over 50 kt and
large hail this afternoon and evening. There will also be a
chance for low level wind shear over west central areas, and in
the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, overnight tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 AM MDT Wed May 10 2023

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY, THEN
PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

Strengthening southwest flow aloft in the presence of deep-layer
mixing will lead to an afternoon of widespread strong winds today.
South and southwesterly winds will be capable of gusts between 40
and 50 mph, with some locales seeing isolated gusts of 55-60 mph.
Frontal passage will force a quick wind shift to the west after 1800
hrs across western zones, pushing east through the overnight hours.
While a slight improvement to humidity is expected, single digit
minimum values will still reign supreme. The winds and low humidity
are accompanied by continued unstable conditions, as an upper low
makes its approach to the area. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, particularly across the northwestern plateau and eastern
plains. Save for storms close to the NM/TX border, expect storms to
trend drier, creating the risk for dry lightning. Storms near the
border will have the potential of becoming strong to severe. All
cells that develop will be capable of sudden and erratic downburst
winds. Overnight recovery will be once again poor to moderate, with
some areas of the high terrain recovering to good. Another day of
critical fire weather conditions is on tap Thursday for most areas,
where breezy to windy west winds will combine with low humidity,
though conditions will not be as unfavorable as Wednesday. A cooler
and wetter scenario is anticipated this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  75  42  74  42 /  20  20   0   0
Dulce...........................  75  36  69  34 /  10  30  10   5
Cuba............................  73  36  69  38 /  10  30   0   0
Gallup..........................  66  33  71  34 /  20  10   0   0
El Morro........................  63  33  66  37 /  20  20   0   0
Grants..........................  71  33  72  32 /  10  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  66  34  69  37 /  10   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  73  41  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  67  36  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  68  28  75  32 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  74  38  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  69  32  61  32 /  10  40  20  10
Los Alamos......................  73  43  68  45 /   0  20   5   0
Pecos...........................  75  39  68  43 /  10  10   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  71  38  59  38 /  20  30  30  10
Red River.......................  63  32  52  32 /  20  40  40  20
Angel Fire......................  69  29  58  29 /  20  30  20  10
Taos............................  77  35  67  33 /  10  20  10  10
Mora............................  73  37  66  39 /  20  10  10   5
Espanola........................  82  42  76  42 /   5  20   5   0
Santa Fe........................  76  41  69  45 /   5  20   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  78  39  73  40 /   0  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  48  75  53 /   0  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  46  77  50 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  44  80  47 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  46  78  48 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  81  43  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  81  46  78  48 /   0  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  82  41  80  43 /   0   5   0   0
Corrales........................  81  46  78  48 /   0  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  81  42  80  43 /   0   5   0   0
Placitas........................  79  46  75  49 /   0  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  80  46  77  49 /   0  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  81  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  41  69  46 /   0  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  75  42  72  46 /   0   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  75  41  71  43 /   0   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  36  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  75  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  75  40  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  75  40  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  45  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  73  41  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  76  40  67  38 /  50  30  20  10
Raton...........................  79  39  71  38 /  30  20  20  10
Springer........................  80  41  73  40 /  30  20  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  77  39  71  40 /  20   5   5   0
Clayton.........................  83  48  76  45 /  50  50   5  10
Roy.............................  80  43  74  44 /  30  20   5   0
Conchas.........................  89  49  82  47 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  86  47  79  46 /  10   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  88  49  82  48 /  30  30   0   0
Clovis..........................  88  47  82  48 /  30  30   0   0
Portales........................  90  48  83  48 /  20  30   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  90  47  82  48 /  10   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  94  52  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  86  47  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  80  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106-
109-120>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NMZ101-104-106-121-123>126.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ207>241.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44