Severe Thunderstorm Warning 491, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
257 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The threat of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will continue
in central and eastern New Mexico through the evening hours. A cold
front will cross the state overnight and drop temperatures to a few
degrees below seasonal averages. Seasonal temperatures and mostly
dry weather will prevail through the weekend although a few showers
and storms are possible in southern New Mexico each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

There is an ongoing threat of severe weather across eastern NM
stretching westward to the central mountain chain and into the Rio
Grande Valley. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for counties
along and east of the central mountain chain for this afternoon to
at least 8pm MDT. Ground based observations show a juicy boundary
layer across eastern NM up to the eastern slopes of the central
mountain chain where Td's are in the low to mid 60s. This is thanks
to southeasterly return flow pushing Gulf moisture into the region.
This moisture does stretch into the Rio Grande Valley where 40s to
50s dewpoints are being observed. All of this low level moisture
underlays an approaching SW-NE oriented jetmax pushing over AZ/NM in
association with a 554dm H5 closed low centered near Salt Lake City,
UT. All told, the abundant moisture is supporting 2000 - 3500 J/kg
SBCAPE (1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) and 30-50kt bulk shear. Much of the
shear across western NM will be unidirectional, with a directional
shear component across the eastern plains. This supports a few
supercellular thunderstorms developing this afternoon, and tornado
or two cannot be ruled out over eastern NM. HiRes CAMS support
discrete cells capable of severe hail and winds evolving and
congealing into clusters or lines across eastern NM late this
afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, scattered convection ongoing along
and west of the Rio Grande Valley will steadily advance eastward
into the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Given dry air intrusion
and overall less surface moisture to work with, these storms will be
less capable of severe weather, but cannot rule out strong erratic
wind gusts. This activity will clear out first this evening near the
6pm hour. Convection over eastern NM will last the longest, not
entirely clearing out into TX until past 9pm. And finally, given
yesterday's relatively heavy rainfall and today's repeated rounds of
thunderstorms, there is a flash flood risk across the Hermit's
Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar. A flood watch is out for this threat
into this evening.

The aforementioned closed low will open with a secondary shortwave
trough rounding into western NM tonight. A Pacific cold front will
accompany this feature bringing in cooler and drier air into western
NM to the Rio Grande Valley tonight. This airmass will struggle to
reach east of the central mountain chain, leaving the abundant low
level moisture in place. Another round of low clouds across the
eastern plains looks likely for Tuesday morning. Light to breezy
southwest to westerly winds will push this drier air into the
eastern plains by Tuesday afternoon, beginning a pleasant stretch of
dry Fall weather heading into the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

A weak, positively tilted trough will cross the state on Wednesday.
The airmass in place should be too dry for precipitation, but a
slight increase of winds is possible as it moves through. A backdoor
front will move southwestward in the wake of the wave and the
convergence along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains
could generate a few showers there around Wednesday evening. Dry,
westerly flow will allow the seasonal temperatures and mostly dry
weather to continue into the late week timeframe. Another, stronger,
backdoor cold front will push down the eastern plains Friday night.
PWATs of 0.75" to 1" could be enough to generate some showers and
storms in the high terrain of southern NM Friday afternoon and
evening. Very weak flow could allow the front to push all the way
through the Continental Divide and increase moisture in its wake.
Breezy east canyon winds could impact the Albuquerque metro area
with its passage. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that
ridging will persist over The Great Basin this weekend. Sufficient
moisture looks to remain under the ridge for isolated showers and
storms in the high terrain of western and southern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Low cigs with patchy MVFR/IFR remains across parts of the eastern
plains this hour, steadily clearing out. Convective activity with
shra and ts are developing along and west of the the Rio Grande
Valley at the same time. Thunderstorm activity will become more
focused along and east of the Rio Grande Valley as we head into
the afternoon however. Storm motions will be very fast to the
N/NNE at 35 to 45 mph with gusty winds and brief and localized
MVFR conditions accompany these cells. Some of these storms could
become severe producing gusts surpassing 50kts and hail in
isolated spots this afternoon across eastern NM. Strong gusts out
of the S/SSW have also begun and are expected to peak 35 to 45
knots across western and central NM. Prevailing winds across the
eastern plains will be slightly less in strength and more S/SSE.
Winds turn swly to wly behind a cold front pushing in from AZ this
evening and tonight. Low-level Gulf moisture will remain
entrenched across the eastern plains tonight allowing for another
round of LIFR/IFR cigs to develop tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Severe weather with strong wind gusts and large hail with pockets of
locally heavy rainfall is the rule today. The severe weather threat
focuses across the eastern plains zones this afternoon and evening.
Peak gusts of 35 to 45 mph from prevailing winds will be common
today, with stronger gusts reaching to 50+ kts possible from severe
storms across the eastern plains. A cold front will bring a westerly
wind shift into western NM, accompanied by drier air pushing to the
Rio Grande Valley. Gulf moisture will linger across eastern NM until
Tuesday afternoon. The drier westerly winds push through eastern NM
thereafter. No fire weather concerns Wednesday and Thursday with
weak winds and dry weather. A backdoor cold front is favored to
bring a northerly to easterly wind shift and higher moisture into
eastern NM by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  42  67  39  69 /  20   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  35  64  27  68 /  60  10   0   0
Cuba............................  39  63  36  66 /  40   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  35  68  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  34  65  33  68 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  35  69  31  71 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  36  68  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  43  73  41  71 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  37  69  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  38  73  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  77  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  34  58  30  62 /  70  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  44  63  44  66 /  60   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  43  64  42  67 /  80   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  35  63  26  65 /  90   5   0   0
Red River.......................  34  58  27  61 / 100   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  35  58  23  60 / 100   0   0   0
Taos............................  41  65  33  67 /  90   5   0   0
Mora............................  40  64  36  64 /  90   0   0   0
Espanola........................  46  71  39  74 /  70   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  45  65  44  67 /  70   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  44  68  41  70 /  60   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  72  49  75 /  30   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  73  46  76 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  75  46  77 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  73  48  76 /  20   0   0   0
Belen...........................  48  76  42  78 /  10   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  49  74  44  77 /  30   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  48  75  41  77 /  20   0   0   0
Corrales........................  50  74  45  77 /  30   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  49  75  43  77 /  20   0   0   0
Placitas........................  48  69  46  73 /  40   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  49  73  46  76 /  30   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  50  79  46  79 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  64  44  67 /  40   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  45  67  44  71 /  40   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  43  68  39  71 /  50   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  70  35  73 /  40   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  43  68  39  70 /  60   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  45  69  40  72 /  20   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  46  71  41  73 /  20   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  53  76  50  77 /  20   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  50  69  46  71 /  20   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  49  66  39  63 /  70   5   0   0
Raton...........................  47  70  39  67 /  80   5   0   0
Springer........................  49  71  39  69 /  80   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  45  68  40  69 /  90   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  55  74  48  68 /  80  10   0   0
Roy.............................  52  71  44  69 /  90   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  58  76  45  74 /  80   5   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  55  74  44  71 /  80   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  58  79  46  74 /  80   5   0  10
Clovis..........................  59  80  53  76 /  80  10  10  30
Portales........................  61  82  54  78 /  80  10  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  60  79  49  77 /  70   5   0  10
Roswell.........................  63  89  59  87 /  60   5   5  20
Picacho.........................  53  80  49  79 /  50   0   0  10
Elk.............................  51  77  48  79 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
301 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

NMZ236-238-022130-
Chaves County Plains-Roosevelt County-
301 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT AND
NORTHEASTERN CHAVES COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 301 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kenna, or 37 miles southwest of Portales, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elida and Kenna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern and east central New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 10371 3373 10392 3402 10391 3397 10359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 190DEG 14KT 3379 10380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
305 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

NMZ238-022130-
Chaves County Plains-
305 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 304 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a severe thunderstorm near
Maljamar, or 30 miles west of Lovington, moving northeast at 25 mph.
This storm will send strong winds northward over southeast Chaves
County, as well as some hail and heavy rain.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Chaves
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 10377 3303 10376 3296 10377 3297 10396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 241DEG 21KT 3285 10386

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

44