Severe Thunderstorm Warning 392, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

It's hot. Although temperatures will wobble a few degrees here or
there the next few days, the simple fact is, it will remain hot.
Monday and Tuesday look to be the hottest days of the next week
for most locations, with triple digit heat common. Some relief may
be in store late week across eastern New Mexico. Storm chances
will be high for the rest of this afternoon and evening across
eastern New Mexico where strong to severe storms are likely. Heavy
rain will also be possible. Storm chances dwindle for the Sunday
through Tuesday time period, but moisture intrusions across
eastern New Mexico mid to late week will increase shower and
thunderstorm chances there once again. Additionally, storms should
become slightly more common across western New Mexico by mid to
late week as modest mid level moisture oozes in beneath the stout
upper level high pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

A rather vigorous push westward of low level moisture occurred last
night, and some of the higher dewpoints in the Rio Grande Valley
have yet to mix out this afternoon. Can't rule out an isolated dry
and gusty shower or storm but any activity would likely diminish by
sunset. That said, storms have been forming along the Sangre de
Cristo mountains and moving southeast to slightly south as well, and
will likely increase in number as the afternoon progresses. Models
continue the idea of another vigorous surge of low level moisture on
a gusty east wind into the Rio Grande Valley toward the Continental
Divide tonight with convection persisting over portions of the east
after midnight. Similar to last night, suspect the east wind into
the ABQ metro will occur sooner than models indicate and be similar
in strength, especially if storms track closer to the central
mountain chain. In fact the NAM12 suggests this, with a burst of
wind early evening then another later in the evening/overnight with
storms tracking farther east and closer to the TX border. If this
scenario pans out, hopefully it won't trigger more convection in
the RGV later into the evening.

On Sunday the upper high center is forecast to drift back over NM.
Despite the moist westerly push tonight, models generate very little
precipitation, likely due to strong subsidence. Can't rule out a few
cells over the central and southwest high terrain though, given the
uptick in high temperatures. Quite a few areas may see near record
highs Sunday afternoon, and have issued a Heat Advisory for the
Middle RGV, West Central and Northwest Plateau. Any storms on
Sunday afternoon should fade away by sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

On Monday, the 599-600dam H5 high will shift back eastward and
will be centered in the vicinity of KGUP. This will mean high
temperatures will crank up even higher than what they have been,
records will be in jeopardy for the date, and widespread Heat
Advisories will be likely. Meanwhile, as the high shifts back
eastward, drier air will filter farther eastward across NM, not
just across the northwest. The high dewpoints across eastern NM
this weekend will mix out into the 40s. Hence, the chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be limited. What storms do develop
will favor the southwest mountains and areas just east of the
Central Mountain Chain along the remnant boundary.

By Tuesday, the upper high will be centered over central NM and
the strength of the high is not expected to change. Drier air will
still be present beneath the high, which will allow temps to soar
once again. High temperatures across much of eastern NM should be
a few degrees warmer overall, and an Excessive Heat Warning may be
needed for the Chaves County Plains. Temps across western NM may
be 1 to 3 degrees cooler, but they may still be warm enough for a
few Heat Advisories. Showers and thunderstorms will remain scarce,
favoring portions of western NM.

For the rest of the work week, the upper high will move very
little, but may weaken slightly to near 597-598 dam by Friday and
by Friday night, should shift westward slightly. There also looks
to be daily rounds of thunderstorm activity starting Wednesday
afternoon across southeast CO and northeast NM that will help push
a moist outflow boundary south and westward each night. This will
help to cool temperatures off across the east each day, but will
also provide more fuel, in terms of low level moisture, for storms
along and east of the Central Mountain Chain each afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be strong or severe. Meanwhile
across western NM, scattered storms will remain possible, but will
be limited by the strength of the high. There does appear to be
some mid level moisture that squeaks beneath the high, but it will
not be as robust as the low level moisture intrusions across
eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are currently along and
east of the central mountain chain of New Mexico early this
evening. Forecast models indicate a cluster of storms will develop
over the northeastern plains later this evening and eventually
drop southward into the east central plains with activity
persisting into the early morning hours. The usual aviation
hazards of lightning, downburst winds and brief heavy downpours
will be found with this activity, along with large hail. An
easterly wind is expected to push against the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristos early Sunday morning, leading to low stratus and
MVFR to IFR ceilings near KAXX and likely just west of KLVS.
These east winds will accelerate through central canyons again
with gusts of 35 kt possible at KABQ which will likely require
another Airport Weather Warning. Minimal storm activity is
expected on Sunday, mainly staying isolated and confined to the
Sangre de Cristo and Sacramentos. Hot temperatures will continue
to lead to high density altitude readings, suggesting poor
aircraft performance for many.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will persist
through early next week over portions of northwest and west central
NM due to near record heat, occasional afternoon breezes and a very
dry and unstable airmass. Wetting showers and storms will be focused
from the east slopes of the central mountain chain over the eastern
plains for the rest of this afternoon and tonight. While low level
moisture will push back westward into the Rio Grande Valley tonight,
the upper high will move back over NM on Sunday, with strong
subsidence likely limiting the number and areal coverage of any
storms to the highest terrain of the central mountain chain and
southwest. The upper high will strengthen it's grip on the southern
Rockies through the upcoming work week, with abnormally warm to hot
temperatures. Moisture may eventually seep under the ridge, allowing
for greater areal coverage of showers and storms over western and
northern NM next Thursday through Saturday and offering not quite as
hot high temperatures.

Localized fair to poor ventilation rates are possible across the
Central Highlands into the Northeast Plains Sunday and again
Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56 101  58 104 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  46  93  46  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  54  93  56  97 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  48 100  52 101 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  51  94  54  96 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  51  98  54 101 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  57  96  59  96 /   5   5  10  20
Magdalena.......................  64  94  66  97 /  10  10   5  20
Datil...........................  59  93  61  94 /  10  10   5  20
Reserve.........................  56 100  58 100 /  10  10  10  30
Glenwood........................  66 103  70 103 /  20  20  20  30
Chama...........................  46  89  47  91 /   5   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  62  91  63  95 /  10   5   5   5
Pecos...........................  58  91  61  96 /  20  10   5  20
Cerro/Questa....................  49  89  49  95 /  20  10   5  10
Red River.......................  48  85  46  88 /  30  10   0  10
Angel Fire......................  46  84  44  86 /  30  20   0  10
Taos............................  57  92  53  97 /  20  10   0   5
Mora............................  52  87  54  93 /  30  20   5  20
Espanola........................  59  98  56 103 /  10   5   5   5
Santa Fe........................  62  92  64  96 /  20  10   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  65  96  63  99 /  10   5   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  97  68 101 /  10   5   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  72  99  70 103 /  10   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  65 100  70 105 /  10   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  99  68 104 /  10   0   0   0
Belen...........................  69 101  67 105 /  10   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  65 100  67 105 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  66 100  67 104 /  10   0   0   0
Corrales........................  66 100  68 105 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  68 100  68 105 /  10   0   0   0
Placitas........................  66  97  65 102 /  10   5   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  67  99  67 104 /  10   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  70 102  71 106 /  10   5   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  91  63  95 /  10  10   0  10
Tijeras.........................  62  94  64  98 /  10  10   0  10
Edgewood........................  59  94  60  99 /  10  10   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  95  58 100 /  20  10   0  10
Clines Corners..................  57  90  61  95 /  20  10   0  20
Mountainair.....................  60  93  64  97 /  10  10   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  62  93  65  97 /  20  10   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  67  96  69 100 /  20  10   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  59  89  63  91 /  30  20   5  20
Capulin.........................  55  84  59  91 /  60  10   0  10
Raton...........................  55  91  56  95 /  50  10   0   5
Springer........................  55  90  57  97 /  50  10   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  54  89  58  95 /  30  10   0  20
Clayton.........................  60  91  64  96 /  60  20   0   0
Roy.............................  58  88  61  95 /  70  10   0   5
Conchas.........................  64  95  65 102 /  50  10   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  65  94  66  99 /  30  10   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  65  99  67 102 /  60  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  65  98  67 102 /  50  20   0   0
Portales........................  67  99  68 103 /  40  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68  98  69 102 /  30  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  73 102  73 108 /  10  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  66  95  67 100 /  20  10   5   5
Elk.............................  62  92  64  97 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ201-205-219.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...52

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
516 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Hail             8 SW Wagon Mound        35.92N 104.80W
07/15/2023  E2.75 inch       Mora               NM   Trained Spotter

            Hard hail broke 3 skylights. Hail persisted
            until approximately 510pm MDT and tapered
            down to half dollar size before quitting.

&&

34

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     22 SE Bosque del Apache 33.56N 106.65W
07/15/2023  M65 MPH          Socorro            NM   Mesonet

            Mesonet station WSM08 Harry (WSMR).

&&

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

NMZ223-233-160015-
Central Highlands-Guadalupe County-
545 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
GUADALUPE AND EAST CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM MDT...

At 545 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Encino, or 19 miles northwest of Vaughn, moving south
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vaughn and Encino.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 285 between Mile Markers 223 and 234.
 Highway 60 between Mile Markers 248 and 264.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 10557 3490 10535 3460 10523 3455 10555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 349DEG 17KT 3481 10545

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

44

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
628 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     Hail             1 NNW Raton Crews Airpo 36.75N 104.51W
07/15/2023  E1.75 inch       Colfax             NM   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Golf Ball sized hail reported on U.S.
            Highway 64 about 10 miles southwest of
            Raton.

&&

BTS