Severe Thunderstorm Warning 362, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

The heatwave continues the next several days for most, but a
backdoor cold front will at least provide some relief to eastern New
Mexico this weekend. Showers and storms will favor southwest and
south-central areas tomorrow then the central mountain chain
eastward Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry weather prevails early next
week although a mix of wet and dry storms are possible in western
New Mexico. With drier air in place, high temps in the triple digits
will be commonplace in most lower elevation locations through mid-
next week. Enough moisture may return mid-week for at least isolated
storms to spread across the state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

The temperature at the Sunport has rebounded to the mid 90s as of
this writing, despite the thick cloud cover which was in place
through midday today. Storms have been a bit slower to fire this
afternoon, with water vapor imagery indicating drier mid level air
starting to make progress into the Four Corners. SPC still has the
slight risk over far northeast New Mexico (and now a severe
thunderstorm watch) with convection sprouting there at this time. A
resulting outflow boundary from convection generally to our
northeast to invade northeast and east central New Mexico this
evening and appears to make more progress south and westward,
potentially to the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia
mountains after midnight, although any low level moisture reaching
that far west would be relatively shallow. At this time, not
anticipating an east wind will break into the Santa Fe or
Albuquerque Metro areas. That scenario is more likely Friday night
with the upper high center having retreated towards southern
Nevada/SoCal therefore northwest flow would be dominating northeast
New Mexico. With drier air making more progress into northwest and
north central New Mexico Friday, areal coverage of showers and
storms will be more limited to northeast New Mexico as well as areas
south of I-40. Will leave the existing Heat highlights as is at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Ample moisture in place across eastern NM will allow scattered
storms to develop along the central mountain chain Saturday
afternoon. As storms drift southeastward into a more unstable
environment with PWATs greater than 150% of normal, storms may
cluster together into an MCS that could bring a damaging wind threat
to the northeast and east-central plains. The cluster of storms will
send an outflow boundary westward through the gaps of the central
mountain chain with breezy to windy conditions possible in the ABQ
metro area. This east wind has the potential to be stronger than the
one Friday night, but there is less certainty given its strong
dependence on convection. The orientation and strength of the
boundary will determine the timing and magnitude of the winds so
there is substantial uncertainty at this time.

With an absence of forcing, convection on Sunday will generally be
limited to a few high elevation areas along the central mountain
chain. High pressure shifts eastward over the state Monday, allowing
dry northwesterly flow to scour out moisture across the central and
western portions of the state. Subsidence will supress convection
in most of western and central New Mexico, but a few dry and wet
storms are possible along the high terrain. Numerous daily record
highs may be challenged throughout the state early and mid-next
week when the H5 high moves directly overhead.

As the high elongates across the state mid and late week, some
moisture from deep convection over northern Mexico will begin to
move into southern Arizona and New Mexico. However, if the high is
too strong as shown by many EC and CMC ensemble members, it will not
translate to widespread convection. GFS members favor a slightly
weaker high that would allow for just enough instability to generate
scattered storms over the high terrain. PoPs have trended down a bit
for this time given a shift towards the solution posed by the EC and
CMC members.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to
favor southern and eastern areas through the evening, then a few
isolated cells may linger after midnight. Some storms may turn
severe over the northeast corner of NM with large hail, damaging
wind, and a small risk of an isolated tornado. Storm motions will
generally be toward the south and east at speeds around 10-20 kt.
A gusty backdoor front will plunge through the eastern plains this
evening and during the late night hours. Behind the front, some
patches of low clouds may produce MVFR conditions across northeast
and east central areas during the late night hours into early
Friday morning. After dry weather early Friday morning, scattered
to isolated showers and thunderstorms will return to southern and
eastern areas during the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Dry and breezy conditions with above normal to near record heat will
persist over northwest NM through early next week and where elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday through
Sunday. The focus for wetting showers and storms will remain over
southwest NM but will also shift over northeast NM through the
weekend as low level moisture is replenished by nightly outflow
boundaries. This moisture is expected to seep westward into the Rio
Grande Valley Friday night, with a stronger westward push Saturday
night, which may reach as far west as the Continental Divide. Some
of this moisture would mix out during the daytime, but a few dry
showers or storms would be a concern. High temperatures over eastern
NM will cool down somewhat by the weekend but overall highs will
increase slightly once the upper high moves back over NM early next
week.

Forecast models indicate the upper high over NM early next week will
build back over the Four Corners region and Great Basin by the end
of next week. There will be enough moisture trapped under the ridge
for daily rounds of meager showers and storms favoring the higher
terrain and adjacent areas but any wetting footprints will be small.

Ventilation will be mostly good to excellent with localized pockets
of fair to poor rates central and east Friday through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61 101  59  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  52  94  49  93 /   0   0   5   5
Cuba............................  60  93  57  93 /   5   5   5   5
Gallup..........................  59  97  55  97 /   5   5   5   0
El Morro........................  60  93  56  94 /  10  10   5   5
Grants..........................  58  96  56  97 /  10   5   5   5
Quemado.........................  62  94  59  95 /  20  20  10  20
Magdalena.......................  65  95  65  93 /  30  30  10  30
Datil...........................  62  91  60  92 /  30  30  10  20
Reserve.........................  62  97  61 100 /  30  40  20  20
Glenwood........................  70 100  71 103 /  40  50  20  30
Chama...........................  51  89  48  87 /   0   5   5  10
Los Alamos......................  64  95  63  90 /   5  10  10  30
Pecos...........................  62  94  61  87 /  10  10  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  51  91  50  87 /  10  10  20  40
Red River.......................  47  85  45  80 /  10  20  20  50
Angel Fire......................  44  84  44  79 /   5  20  20  50
Taos............................  55  94  56  89 /   5   5  10  30
Mora............................  55  91  54  83 /  10  20  20  50
Espanola........................  58  99  59  97 /   5   5  10  20
Santa Fe........................  64  95  63  90 /   5  10  10  30
Santa Fe Airport................  63  99  63  94 /   5   5  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  72  99  70  98 /  10   5   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  73 101  71  99 /  10   5   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  67 102  65 101 /  10   5   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  71 101  70  99 /  10   0   5  10
Belen...........................  73 103  68 101 /  10   5   5  10
Bernalillo......................  68 102  67 101 /   5   5   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  69 102  66 101 /  10   5   5  10
Corrales........................  70 102  68 100 /   5   5   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  72 102  68 101 /  10   5   5  10
Placitas........................  69  99  67  97 /   5   5  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  70 101  69 100 /   5   5   5  10
Socorro.........................  72 103  70 102 /  20  20  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  65  94  63  91 /  10  10  10  20
Tijeras.........................  67  96  65  93 /  10  10  10  20
Edgewood........................  64  97  62  93 /  10  10  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  62  98  60  93 /  10  10  10  20
Clines Corners..................  62  94  60  87 /  10  10  20  20
Mountainair.....................  65  94  63  92 /  20  20  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  66  95  63  92 /  20  20  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  72  97  69  95 /  20  30  10  30
Ruidoso.........................  64  87  62  85 /  20  50  20  50
Capulin.........................  59  88  57  77 /  20  20  40  50
Raton...........................  58  93  58  82 /  20  20  30  50
Springer........................  58  94  59  84 /  20  20  30  50
Las Vegas.......................  58  94  59  84 /  10  20  20  40
Clayton.........................  64  93  63  81 /  30  30  30  20
Roy.............................  62  96  61  82 /  20  20  30  40
Conchas.........................  66 100  66  91 /  20  10  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  68 101  67  90 /  20  10  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  68 101  67  89 /  30  10  20  20
Clovis..........................  71 100  68  93 /  30  10  20  10
Portales........................  72 102  69  95 /  30  10  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  72 103  69  95 /  20  10  20  10
Roswell.........................  77 107  76 102 /  20  10  10  10
Picacho.........................  70  98  68  93 /  20  30  10  30
Elk.............................  67  93  65  90 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-211-219>221-
225-238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-207-211-
212-217-218-220>222-224-225-241.

Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for NMZ219-238.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
423 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

NMZ238-132300-
Chaves County Plains-
423 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CHAVES
COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 422 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roswell, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roswell and Bitter Lake Wildlife Refuge.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 285 between Mile Markers 104 and 116.
 Highway 380 between Mile Markers 156 and 162.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3333 10471 3347 10472 3352 10440 3331 10438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 266DEG 20KT 3340 10458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MA/BB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
637 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 17 WNW Oscuro           33.53N 106.34W
07/13/2023  M62 MPH          Lincoln            NM   Mesonet

            Mesonet station WSM39 Shist (WSMR).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
639 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     17 WNW Oscuro           33.53N 106.34W
07/13/2023  M62 MPH          Lincoln            NM   Mesonet

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
            from 17 WNW Oscuro. Mesonet station WSM39
            Shist (WSMR).

&&

RMS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>